Constellation Brands, the parent company of Modelo Especial and Corona, once bet on Latino consumers to drive growth. However, this strategy is unraveling under the Trump administration's aggressive immigration enforcement policies.
Consumer surveys, corporate feedback, and market research indicate that many Latino consumers—regardless of legal status—are avoiding public visits to stores, restaurants, and bars due to intensified immigration raids. Large beer-fueled parties and celebrations have either scaled back or disappeared entirely. Layoffs in industries reliant on immigrant labor, coupled with rising living costs, have further strained Latino household budgets.
Constellation Brands has seen a sharp sales decline, with Modelo losing its title as "America’s best-selling beer" to Michelob Ultra. Its stock has plummeted nearly 40% this year, making it one of the worst performers in the S&P 500.
The company’s struggles highlight how President Trump’s immigration policies are unexpectedly disrupting sectors of the U.S. economy, upending long-term strategies of major corporations that banked on rising Latino purchasing power.
Constellation faces disproportionate pressure for two reasons: Latinos account for roughly half its beer consumers—the highest share in the industry—and its largest market, California, is both the state with the highest Latino population and a primary target for ICE raids.
"Latino consumers are the single most important demographic for our beer business," a Constellation executive said last year. "They are the foundation of our growth."
The company declined to comment, as did the White House.
**Rise to Beer Giant** In 2013, Constellation secured exclusive U.S. distribution rights for Grupo Modelo’s portfolio, including Corona, Modelo, Pacifico, and Victoria. The deal transformed Constellation from a mid-sized New York wine distributor into a global beverage leader—and a bet on Latino consumers, whose U.S. population nearly doubled to 68 million over 25 years.
"We’re confident about the future, largely because of Latino consumers," Constellation stated post-acquisition. The company launched Modelo variants inspired by Mexican drinks, advertised heavily in Spanish-language media, and expanded shelf space in Latino-heavy states like California, Texas, and Florida. By 2023, it vowed to run no ads without positive feedback from both Latino and non-Latino test groups.
These moves made Constellation a rare bright spot in a declining U.S. beer market, where overall consumption is dropping as consumers shift to non-alcoholic drinks and cannabis. Gallup data shows drinking rates among white adults have fallen, while remaining steady among minorities.
"Constellation’s earlier success was built on its strong Latino base," said Martin Stock, former CEO of ad agency Cavalry, which worked with Constellation for six years. "Their brands are deeply rooted in Latino culture but successfully crossed over." In 2023, Modelo dethroned Bud Light as America’s top-selling beer, while Corona ranked fifth.
"The beer industry is struggling," Stock noted. "Constellation was the exception—until about 10 months ago."
**"Counter to Our Business"** Trump’s immigration crackdown has hit businesses of all sizes, particularly in immigrant hubs like Los Angeles, Chicago, and Charlotte. A November poll by Small Business Majority found nearly half of U.S. small business owners reporting negative impacts from heightened enforcement. For example, the Texas Restaurant Association cited declining foot traffic and staff resignations.
Other giants like Burlington, Wingstop, Colgate-Palmolive, and PepsiCo also reported slumping sales in Latino communities. In April, Constellation warned investors in filings that immigration policy shifts "affecting consumers, particularly Latinos" posed a business risk. Last quarter, its beer shipments to U.S. retailers plunged 8.7%, with FY2026 projections anticipating up to a 4% drop.
CEO Bill Newlands said in October that changed Latino shopping habits are "counter to our business." "Latino consumers are deeply concerned right now," he added. "Performance in high-Latino ZIP codes is significantly worse than elsewhere."
A Pew Research poll found 78% of Latino adults rate the economy as "only fair" or "poor," with higher negativity than other groups.
**Key Question: Temporary or Long-Term Threat?** For Constellation, the critical question is whether weakened Latino demand is a short-term blip or a lasting threat. Some analysts believe the company can rebound by expanding its Mexican beer appeal beyond Latinos, such as boosting distribution in low-Latino areas and offering smaller, cheaper packs for budget-conscious buyers.
But recovery hinges largely on whether Trump escalates deportations—which could further shrink the market by driving consumers into hiding. "This volatility is unprecedented," Newlands said. "We’re cautiously optimistic—emphasizing *cautious*—that we’ve hit bottom."
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