MicroStrategy (MSTR.US) Plunges 60% Yet Wins Wall Street Backing as Analysts Bet on Bitcoin Rebound

Stock News12-10

It takes a seismic event to shake Wall Street analysts from their bullish stance—and MicroStrategy (MSTR.US) is a case in point. Despite its stock plummeting 60%, erasing $73 billion in market value, only 3 out of 19 covering analysts have turned bearish, while 15 maintain "buy" ratings. Among these, 12 set price targets with a median of $485—implying over 150% upside from Monday’s close of $189.

President Capital Management’s Jeffrey Yu and Cantor Fitzgerald’s Brett Knoblauch project consolidation around $200, while the lowest target sits at $425. Benchmark’s Mark Palmer, however, sees a 4x surge to $705. The former software pioneer, now a "Bitcoin treasury" trailblazer, rides a straightforward thesis: Bitcoin will rebound sharply from its recent crash, mirroring 2022 and 2017 rallies, turbocharging the value of MicroStrategy’s crypto holdings.

Palmer notes, "In crypto, a year is an epoch," highlighting the challenge of valuing digital asset treasuries (DATs). Unlike traditional discounted cash flow models, this hinges on betting on an infamously volatile asset. MicroStrategy’s median target upside leads the Nasdaq 100 and trails only Viking Therapeutics (VKTX.US) and Aurora Innovation (AUR.US) in the Russell 1000, where the average stock trades 17% below targets.

The bull case leans on MicroStrategy’s track record post-Michael Saylor’s crypto pivot: a 600% stock surge within six months of its August 2020 Bitcoin purchase. At its peak, investors priced the stock at 2.5x Bitcoin’s value—now just 1.2x as DAT competitors dilute demand. Monness Crespi Hardt’s Gus Gala downgraded to "sell" in April, citing competition and MicroStrategy’s junk-rated B- status, but upgraded to "neutral" post-crash, acknowledging persistent market appetite.

"Could premiums revisit 2x? Possibly in the next cycle’s peak—but sustainably? Unlikely," Gala cautioned. Others, like Bernstein and Cantor Fitzgerald, slashed targets by 25% and 59% respectively but still forecast 12-month gains. Palmer predicts Bitcoin hitting $225,000 (+140%) by late 2026, lifting MicroStrategy, while newer DATs underperform. "Our optimism stems from Bitcoin’s upside potential," he said. Bitcoin last traded at $92,188.59.

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