This week, the three major indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index falling 1.26%, and the ChiNext Index declining 3.86%. How will the market perform next week? Here's what institutions are saying.
**CITIC Securities: Traditional Manufacturing Opportunities Emerging**
Recent export controls and export licensing systems not only help fill regulatory gaps and improve institutional frameworks to protect national interests, but also assist in maintaining export prices externally and accelerating the clearance of backward capacity internally through anti-involution measures. Leading enterprises with compliance capabilities and global operational experience may actually gain more stable overseas market share and better profitability levels. Considering the balance between short-term profit realization, medium-term economic recovery, and long-term narrative logic, current focus remains primarily on upstream resource sectors and traditional manufacturing industries.
**China Galaxy Strategy: Will Tariffs Strike Again - Will A-shares Repeat the "4.7" Market Movement?**
Will this round of tariff impact cause A-share markets to repeat the April 7th market movement? Our answer is no! First, the degree of expectation impact has significantly decreased. Second, policy market stabilization mechanisms are already in place. Third, the market is focusing on medium to long-term policy expectations. Additionally, judging from global market performance on October 10th, the decline in Chinese concept stocks stems partly from global risk sentiment transmission and partly from profit-taking after previous gains. From April lows to September highs, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index has risen 43%. This adjustment in Chinese concept stocks is not a long-term trend reversal dominated by a single external factor, but rather reflects the need for consolidation after sustained previous gains.
**Shenwan Hongyuan Strategy: Effective Breakthrough Still Requires Technology Leadership**
Sino-US trade friction disruptions have reappeared, but don't underestimate market adaptability. Compared to the April 7th adjustment, current index levels are higher, but market learning effects are also accumulating. Stock price evolution patterns are similar to April, but the magnitude may be lower. After next week's pulse-like adjustment, there's no need for pessimism. Technology sectors lack the basis for sustained correction. Overall market effective breakthrough still requires technology leadership.
**Minsheng Macro: Future Market Reactions Will Resemble May Rather Than April**
Currently, this round appears more like May than April. April's scenario involved continuous tariff escalation until the market could no longer bear it, ultimately leading to US concessions. May featured initial negotiations where both sides intentionally established a tone to avoid derailment, with controllable periodic frictions ultimately resolved through phone calls. This time, combined with the restraint shown in Trump's weekend press responses and China's rational response, we still believe this fundamental tone between both sides hasn't changed and won't become a market inflection point event.
**GF Strategy: TACO Trading Presents Another Buying Opportunity**
Similar to April 25th, we believe this is likely another typical "TACO trade" - short-term threats don't represent the endgame, and we still need to observe the next mediation developments. If it's likely a TACO trade, then short-term declines provide good buying opportunities. For those concerned about A-share valuations being higher than April, reference can be made to 2019 compared to 2018. Current market environment differs from April in that domestic "loose monetary + loose fiscal" dual-loose tone is more definite, and investors have fresh memories of April's TACO trade round with response experience. However, the difference lies in the stock market's offensive-defensive position shift, with current valuation levels somewhat elevated compared to April.
**Guojin Strategy: No Fear, No Greed - "Bad News" Doesn't Necessarily Mean "Golden Pit"**
Friday saw increased volatility in global risk asset prices, but no "panic" has emerged yet. Current higher valuation levels compared to April mean that without excessive panic-driven declines requiring correction, whether global assets need to start reflecting the already apparent downward trends in US service and technology-dominated fundamentals becomes an important question. Just as the core of post-April rallies reaching new highs wasn't TACO, conflict mitigation alone isn't sufficient to support continued upward movement now. We expect global risk asset adjustments won't be severe but may require longer time to digest.
**Kaisource Securities: Tariffs Cause New Turbulence, Yet We Remain Steadfast!**
The bull market in Chinese assets won't come to an abrupt halt. The October 10, 2025 event carries more negotiation implications, essentially reflecting China's strategic initiative in key resources like rare earth materials - suggesting this impact's substantive effects may be smaller. Therefore, the market movement that wasn't defeated by the previous round of impact may continue this time.
**Dongwu Strategy: Re-examining "Price Increase" Opportunities - Supply-Demand Mismatches, Rising Tide Lifts All Boats**
We believe once "price increase" trends form, as long as the bullish logic - whether monetary-level interest rate cuts and weak dollar, or industrial-level structural supply-demand contradictions - hasn't reversed, one shouldn't easily declare "price peaks" on the left side. Active participation and holding during trends is the optimal strategy. Specifically, we recommend focusing on directions where price increase trends have already formed and segments where price bottoms are established with price increase expectations, including: precious metals (gold, silver) and strategic minor metals (rare earth, cobalt, tungsten) in non-ferrous metals; PTA and pesticides in chemicals; semiconductor chips led by storage; battery cells and upstream materials in new energy, wind power (equipment and some raw material components), and copper clad laminates in computing hardware.
**Zhejiang Securities: Shanghai Composite Breaks Through But Encounters Setbacks - Strategic View of Slow Bull, Tactical Focus on Financials**
This week, the Shanghai Composite rose above 3900 points before retreating, with obvious market volatility. Looking ahead, both ChiNext indices have broken below upward trend lines and need adjustment if they can't recover short-term. The Shanghai Composite has formed a daily 5-wave structure with potential for continued upward movement. However, with sudden external impacts arriving Friday, short-term trends may lean toward consolidation. Considering multiple factors and drawing from April 7th trends, we maintain confidence in systematic "slow" bull markets, viewing any significant pullbacks as allocation opportunities.
**Xiangcai Securities: Sino-US Trade Conflict Risks Rising, Short-term Extension of A-share Wide-Range Consolidation**
Since China and the US have conducted multiple rounds of negotiations on tariff issues since April, both sides' current actions have essentially eliminated previous negotiation results. Future China-US relations will likely maintain an ambiguous state, but as China's proportion of US-bound exports continues declining, US negotiation leverage is steadily decreasing. Gradual conflict mitigation between both sides is highly probable, though the process will inevitably involve some turbulence.
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