Event: Recently, the Ministry of Finance, People's Bank of China, and the National Financial Regulatory Administration jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for Personal Consumer Loan Financial Interest Subsidy Policy," clarifying the provision of financial interest subsidies for eligible personal consumer loans. The subsidy scope includes single consumption transactions under 50,000 yuan, as well as key consumption areas of 50,000 yuan and above including household automobiles, elderly care and childbirth, education and training, culture and tourism, home decoration, electronic products, and healthcare (including dental orthodontics, vision correction, health management, etc.).
Commentary:
Entering summer peak season, consumer demand may see improvement: In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 20.983 billion yuan (YOY +3%); net profit attributable to parent company of 3.556 billion yuan (YOY +6%); adjusted net profit attributable to parent company of 3.099 billion yuan (YOY -12%). Affected by weak social consumption factors, the growth rate of ophthalmology consumer business revenue has been sluggish. Considering that recent personal consumer loans may boost consumption in key areas such as ophthalmology vision correction, combined with factors such as entering the summer peak season and the rigid demand characteristics of the medical industry, we believe that demand in the ophthalmology industry may improve. We are optimistic about the company's long-term development as an industry leader.
Steady revenue growth across business segments, optimistic about stable growth in 2025: In 2024, the company's refractive business revenue reached 7.60 billion yuan, up 2.31% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 55.11%, down 2.28 percentage points year-on-year; the company's optometry business revenue was 5.28 billion yuan, up 6.42% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 54.49%, down 2.56 percentage points year-on-year; anterior segment projects achieved revenue of 1.90 billion yuan, up 5.95% year-on-year; posterior segment projects achieved revenue of 1.50 billion yuan, up 8.22% year-on-year; cataract projects achieved revenue of 3.49 billion yuan, up 4.87% year-on-year. The company continues its high-end transformation, and overall, revenue growth across all segments remains stable. We expect steady growth to continue in 2025.
"AI + Ophthalmology" strategic layout continues to advance, strengthening domestic and international leadership advantages: The company continues to deepen its "Digital Ophthalmology" strategy, accelerating the application layout of "AI + Ophthalmology" and building new quality productive forces in ophthalmology to empower company operations. The company explores the construction of "Aier AI Eye Hospital," actively deploying AI applications in ophthalmology medical services to further enhance the intelligent level of hospital services. Based on deep learning and natural language processing technologies, the company integrates massive ophthalmology resources and independently developed the ophthalmology vertical large model AierGPT, which was officially released at the World Myopia Congress, effectively empowering eye health education, diagnosis and treatment, training, and health management, helping to create "AI Digital Ophthalmologists." The company's developed digital human "Eyecho" has been officially released, which is expected to further strengthen the company's global ophthalmology leadership competitive advantage.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: Comprehensively considering external environment impacts and company expense investments, we lower our 2025-2026 net profit attributable to parent company forecasts to 4.128/4.725 billion yuan (previous forecasts of 4.612/5.47 billion yuan, down 10.5%/13.6% respectively), and add a 2027 net profit attributable to parent company forecast of 5.463 billion yuan. The company is a leader in specialized ophthalmology hospitals, with refractive, optometry and multiple business segments still having growth potential. We maintain a "Buy" rating.
Risk warnings: External environment consumption weakness risk; M&A project integration falling short of expectations; medical insurance policy risk
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