Today (January 21), the nonferrous metals sector led the gains in the market, with the popular sector ETF—China Resources Nonferrous Metals ETF (159876)—experiencing a strong surge. Its on-exchange price soared 3.01%, once again setting a new historical record high! The full-day trading volume reached 106 million yuan, representing a 14% increase compared to the previous session.
The ETF's breakout with increased volume above its listing high could be a buying signal for capital! Data shows that China Resources Nonferrous Metals ETF (159876) received a net subscription of 18.6 million units for the day, following a 10-day streak of capital inflows that collectively absorbed a substantial 635 million yuan!
Regarding constituent stocks, sixty percent of the components rose over 2%. Five stocks, including Silver Co., Ltd., Guocheng Mining, Western Region Gold Co.,Ltd., Hunan Silver Co., Ltd., and Shengxin Lithium Energy, hit the daily limit-up. Chifeng Gold, Sinomine Resource Group, and Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd. all surged more than 9%. Among the heavyweight stocks, Shandong Gold Mining rose over 6%, while Zijin Mining Group gained more than 2%.
On the news front, a sudden, large overseas order for 150 tons of gold emerged. On January 20 local time, the National Bank of Poland announced it had approved a plan to purchase up to 150 tons of gold. This move would increase Poland's total gold reserves to 700 tons. In a statement, the Polish central bank indicated this would place Poland among the top ten countries globally in terms of gold reserves. Coupled with the impact of external geopolitical factors, international gold prices have continued to skyrocket, with spot gold surpassing $4800 per ounce to set another record high. Domestically, the price per gram for gold jewelry has also broken through 1500 yuan.
Dongwu Futures analysis suggests that precious metals are oscillating upwards. On one hand, the US announcement of additional tariffs on European countries has reignited risk aversion, which is beneficial for precious metals. Secondly, the criminal investigation into Powell is essentially another challenge to the Federal Reserve's independence, further damaging the credibility of the US dollar. Everbright Futures pointed out that against the backdrop of a potential pause in Fed rate cuts in January, geopolitical issues have become the short-term focus. Given the risk-off sentiment, the short-term热度 for gold is unlikely to subside.
On the policy front, Shanghai has issued a document aimed at promoting the enhancement of the nonferrous metals bulk commodity sector. On January 20, Shanghai released the "Action Plan for Strengthening Futures-Spot Linkage to Enhance the Tier of Nonferrous Metals Bulk Commodities," focusing on strengthening interconnected development between markets. The goal is to jointly improve Shanghai's ability to allocate resources for nonferrous metals bulk commodities and its global pricing influence, thereby supporting Shanghai's "Five Centers" initiative.
China International Capital Corporation (CICC) notes that nonferrous metals are a macro-sensitive sector, where the macroeconomic perspective is equally important as supply-demand balance sheets. Under the基调 of global monetary and fiscal easing, the macroeconomic environment in 2026 is expected to be generally warmer than in 2025. China Galaxy Securities believes that the intensification of global geopolitical conflicts may trigger a reshaping of the global metal supply chain. This will catalyze demand and a revaluation of critical strategic metal mineral resources, such as copper, tungsten, molybdenum, cobalt, and rare earth magnetic materials. The logic supporting price increases for these key strategic nonferrous metals is expected to persist.
[The Nonferrous Metals Trend is Here, the 'Super Cycle' is Unstoppable] The underlying index tracked by China Resources Nonferrous Metals ETF (159876) and its feeder fund (Class A: 017140, Class C: 017141) comprehensively covers industries like copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium. It encompasses different phases of the economic cycle, including precious metals (safe-haven), strategic metals (growth), and industrial metals (recovery). This full-category coverage enables better capture of the sector's overall beta行情.
*Institutional views referenced from: ① Dongwu Futures Research Institute report "Dongwu Futures - Precious Metals Topic: Why is Silver Hitting New Highs Again?" released Jan 19, 2026; ② Everbright Futures "Gold Commentary" released Jan 14, 2026; ③ CICC "Nonferrous Metals 2026 Outlook: After the New Highs" released Nov 16, 2025, with views reinforced in updated versions and key points summaries; ④ China Galaxy Securities "Nonferrous Metals Industry Weekly: Intensifying Geopolitical Conflicts May Strengthen Revaluation of Key Strategic Metal Prices" released Jan 13, 2026. Risk Warning: China Resources Nonferrous Metals ETF and its feeder fund passively track the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index. The base date for this index is Dec 31, 2013, and it was published on July 13, 2015. The index's performance over the past five complete years is: 2020, +35.84%; 2021, +35.89%; 2022, -19.22%; 2023, -10.43%; 2024, +2.96%. The index's constituent stocks are adjusted according to its compilation rules, and its past performance does not indicate future results. The mention of constituent stocks herein is for illustrative purposes only; individual stock descriptions are not investment advice in any form and do not represent the holdings or trading动向 of the fund manager. The fund manager assesses this fund's risk level as R3-Medium Risk, suitable for Balanced (C3) and higher risk profile investors. Suitability matching opinions should be based on the selling institution. Any information appearing in this article is for reference only, and investors are responsible for any independent investment decisions. Furthermore, any views, analysis, or forecasts herein do not constitute investment advice of any kind to the reader, and no responsibility is accepted for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use of this content. Fund investment carries risks; past fund performance does not guarantee future results, and the performance of other funds managed by the fund manager does not constitute a guarantee of this fund's performance. Invest cautiously in funds.
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Editor: Yang Hongbu
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