On January 14th, both gold and silver hit new historic highs on Tuesday. Spot gold reached an all-time high of $4,634 per ounce before rapidly retreating, ultimately closing at $4,586 with a bearish daily candlestick. Spot silver rose 2.1% to $86.92 per ounce, also reaching a new intraday record high of $89.11, and even touched a fresh peak of $90 in early trading today. In early Asian trading on Wednesday (January 14th, Beijing time), spot gold opened higher and continued to climb, currently trading around $4,620.
Regarding fundamental news, the release of the US December Consumer Price Index (CPI), which should have been a boon for gold bulls, instead triggered a complex market reaction. The data showed CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, with a relatively muted impact; core CPI increased by 0.2% monthly and 2.6% annually, both falling below analyst expectations of 0.3% and 2.7%. However, instead of continuing its ascent after the data release, gold prices retreated from their highs, reflecting that the market's interpretation of the inflation figures was not one-sided. While lower-than-expected inflation supports the case for interest rate cuts, it also hints at signs of economic cooling. St. Louis Fed President Musalem emphasized that with inflation still above the 2% target, there is no justification for further rate cuts in the near term, which has dampened short-term rate cut expectations.
On the geopolitical front, on the local date of the 13th, Israeli Foreign Minister Saar announced Israel's decision to withdraw from several United Nations agencies and related organizations, citing issues such as "anti-Israel bias." Separately, Denmark and Greenland are set to express their firm resolve not to sell Greenland during talks scheduled for the 14th in Washington, D.C. Heightened US-Iran tensions, threats of imposing 25% tariffs on Iranian trade partners, and the ongoing US-Venezuela conflict persist. On January 13th, the US government applied to a court for a seizure warrant, seeking to confiscate dozens of tankers linked to Venezuela, thereby escalating its crackdown on Venezuela's oil transportation network.
From a technical perspective on the gold daily chart, gold prices rose again this week due to fundamental events, marking three consecutive days of bullish closes. Given the CPI data influence, yesterday was poised for another bullish close, but it surprisingly ended bearish. This pattern indicates that the current bullish sentiment is no longer as fervent as before, necessitating increased attention to potential technical downside risks. Currently, the daily moving averages still show a bullish dispersion pattern, suggesting underlying bullish sentiment remains. However, the market allows for corrective pressure in the short term, creating a contradictory situation. A break below the 5-day moving average could signal a trend reversal risk, potentially leading to a technical pullback towards $4,500, or even lower. In summary, the current gold bull market heavily relies on positive fundamental catalysts; without such stimulus, further gains will be difficult. As technical correction risks gradually accumulate, the bulls may struggle to withstand the test of time if no new positive fundamentals emerge.
Looking at the gold 1-hour chart, after surging to the $4,635 level overnight, gold retreated to around $4,570. The subsequent rally in early trading today carries significant emotional risk and strong elements of a bull trap, warranting a cautious, wait-and-see approach for the day. The hourly chart currently shows a high-level sideways consolidation range, which must withstand the dual tests of time and fundamentals. A fresh positive fundamental catalyst could push prices beyond this range. Conversely, without new positive news, the passage of time itself will likely exert downward pressure, constraining any upward movement.
For today's trading advice, gold is expected to experience wide fluctuations within the hourly chart range of $4,630-$4,570. Consider low-buy-high-sell strategies within this range. Given that price action remains highly sentiment-driven, it is crucial to implement strict stop-loss orders of approximately 10 points.
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