Option Focus | Palantir’s $8.63 Million Call Buy Targets $200 by 2028, Signaling Strong Bullish Conviction Despite a $1.27 Million Protective Put

Option Witch08-15 07:01

Palantir Technologies Inc. closed at USD 174.04, down 2.78%, after opening at USD 179.48 and trading between USD 173.80 and USD 180.18.

Despite the day’s decline, the options market flashed a pronounced bullish signal, anchored by a single, massive call purchase. An $8.63 million outlay on long-dated calls targeting $200.00 by 2028 dominated the flow, indicating a conviction-driven bet on substantial multi-year appreciation that overshadowed a concurrent $1.27 million protective put purchase.

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Options Indicators

PLTR’s implied volatility stands at 47.41%, while its IV percentile is just 6.77%, indicating that despite the headline IV level, current option pricing sits near the low end of its own historical range. In other words, volatility is on the low side and options appear cheaply priced relative to where they have typically traded. The IV/HV ratio of 0.44 further suggests implied volatility is running well below realized volatility, reinforcing the view that current premiums are relatively inexpensive rather than stretched. The Call/Put volume ratio is 1.02.

Large Trades

A CALL buy worth $8.63 million was the standout large trade, with 2,000 contracts of the January 21, 2028 $200.00 call purchased. With PLTR referenced at $174.04, this strike is out of the money, making it a clear bullish directional bet on meaningful upside over a long time horizon. The buyer is paying substantial premium for convex upside exposure, which suggests confidence that the stock can rise materially above $200.00 before expiration rather than simply expressing a short-term tactical view. A PUT buy worth $1.27 million was the second key large trade, consisting of 2,000 contracts of the October 16, 2026 $160.00 put purchased. Against the current stock reference of $174.04, the strike is also out of the money, so this trade reflects a bearish stance or a downside hedge focused on a medium-term pullback below $160.00. Strategically, this kind of outright put purchase typically signals either protection against a future correction or a directional view that downside risk remains underpriced. Overall, large-trade sentiment in PLTR skewed clearly bullish, with total bullish flow of $8.64 million versus bearish flow of $2.20 million, leaving a net bullish difference of $6.43 million. The directional judgment is therefore bullish, driven overwhelmingly by the dominant long-dated $200.00 call purchase, which far outweighed the notable but smaller bearish put activity. While the tape did include downside positioning and some premium-collection trades that imply caution or range expectations, the scale and conviction of the upside call buying make the broader large-trade message decisively constructive.

Strategy Reference

For those seeking to collect premium with a low probability of assignment against the current structure, the out-of-the-money $160.00 put for nearer-term expirations could be a candidate, as the bearish flow focused on a medium-term pullback rather than an immediate breakdown below that level.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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