On May 8, the international gold market recently gained new upward momentum. Morgan Stanley released a new report suggesting that, despite fluctuations in the geopolitical environment, gold prices are expected to climb toward approximately $5,200 per ounce in the medium term, reflecting major institutions' long-term optimism toward safe-haven assets. EasyMarkets noted that although short-term gold prices are affected by falling oil prices and easing risk aversion, the logic for medium- to long-term allocation has been further reinforced. The institution's analysis indicates that the current rebound is supported by multiple converging factors, including the approaching interest rate cut cycle, diversification of central bank reserves, and evolution of the monetary system.
In terms of macroeconomic policy, major central banks generally maintain a cautious stance of holding steady, with markets closely observing the pace of potential rate cuts. EasyMarkets believes that investment banks' successive upward revisions of medium- to long-term gold targets reflect a consensus pricing of lower real interest rates and a weaker U.S. dollar trend. The institution points out that major banks such as UBS have previously set long-term targets near $5,900 per ounce, and with Morgan Stanley's recent upward adjustment to $5,200, multiple supports for gold prices are forming. Global central banks' gold purchasing momentum has not stalled, and the trend of reserve diversification in emerging markets continues.
From a technical perspective, after stabilizing near the lower end of its range, gold's daily chart shows gradual recovery from short-term moving average pressure. MACD momentum has marginally improved, and the KDJ indicator has risen from oversold territory, indicating that bearish forces have been temporarily exhausted. Institutional observers also note that physical gold demand in Asia remains stable. Marginal changes in ETF holdings, seasonal wedding demand in India and the Middle East, and COMEX gold futures delivery ratios serve as key indicators for gauging actual capital flows. Additional factors such as the structure of gold option open interest, the gold-silver ratio, and the relative performance of mining stocks also provide supplementary insights into market sentiment and risk appetite. Cross-verification of these multidimensional signals can enhance judgment accuracy.
EasyMarkets anticipates that gold prices may fluctuate within the range of $4,500 to $4,900 per ounce in the short term, with the potential to approach the $5,200 target over the medium to long term. The institution emphasizes that investors should fully understand gold's role as a cross-cycle asset, monitor key indicators such as real interest rates, the U.S. dollar index, and global risk sentiment, avoid chasing rallies or selling off around data releases, and adopt a phased allocation strategy based on individual risk tolerance to navigate the current policy observation window steadily.
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