UBS Trims Tesla Price Target, Cites Downside Risks to Deliveries

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UBS cut its price target on Tesla to $165 from $225 a share, citing slower electric vehicle demand in the U.S. and Europe, coupled with competition concerns in China.

Tesla shares slipped 1.7% on the news.

“We lower our 1Q24 delivery forecast to 432k from 466k and are ~10% below 477k consensus,” wrote analyst Joseph Spak in a Wednesday note. “Our revision is driven by slower EV demand (US, Europe) and slower production in NA and Europe.”

The revised price target implies about 3% downside from Wednesday’s close. The stock slipped 1.4% before the bell. Shares have struggled this year, falling nearly 32% as demand for electric vehicles dwindles.

Given this backdrop, Spak anticipates downside risks to 2025 consensus deliveries and noted that forecasts need to “come down.” For 2024, the firm’s EPS expectations are down about 32% versus consensus expectations, he noted.

“Though we remain cautious on the numbers and the stock near-term, we stay Neutral,” Spak added. “While difficult to see a near-term catalyst for EV sentiment to improve, if/when it does we believe investors will look to TSLA for exposure.”

UBS’ price target cut came a day after Wells Fargo downgraded Tesla to underweight from equal weight and called for a steep decline in the stock going forward.

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