Annual Demand Reaches 5.6 Million Units as New Environmental Policy Expands Market for Vehicle Emission Control Devices

Deep News12-22 09:52

China's large fleet of in-use vehicles with high emission levels remains a major contributor to air pollution. The Ministry of Ecology and Environment is drafting technical standards for replacement vehicle pollution control devices to strengthen emission regulation and management.

The national ecological and environmental standard, *Technical Specifications for Replacement Vehicle Pollution Control Devices (Draft for Public Comment)*, is now open for feedback. According to the ministry’s Department of Atmospheric Environment, organizations, industry associations, enterprises, and individuals may submit opinions and suggestions until January 18, 2026.

The drafting committee includes Xiamen Environmental Protection Vehicle Pollution Control Technology Center as the lead, with participation from the Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Hefei Institutes of Physical Science under the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing Institute of Technology, National Passenger Car Quality Inspection and Testing Center, and National Heavy-Duty Vehicle Quality Inspection and Testing Center.

The draft highlights that China's air quality remains a critical challenge. Data from the *2024 China Ecological Environment Status Bulletin* shows that 117 prefecture-level or higher cities exceeded air quality standards, accounting for 34.5% of monitored cities. Reducing particulate matter (PM) and ozone emissions is a priority for urban air quality improvement.

Meanwhile, China's vehicle fleet—totaling 453 million units in 2024, including 353 million cars (77.9% of the total)—is a significant pollution source. The *2024 China Mobile Source Environmental Management Annual Report* indicates that vehicle emissions reached 13.896 million tons, comprising carbon monoxide (CO, 7.249 million tons), hydrocarbons (HC, 1.872 million tons), nitrogen oxides (NOx, 4.731 million tons), and PM (44,000 tons). Cars contributed 89.9% of CO, 83.5% of HC, 97.8% of NOx, and 93.2% of PM emissions.

Notably, China IV and China V vehicles account for 60.4% of CO, 68.8% of HC, 77.9% of NOx, and 62.3% of PM emissions. Many of these vehicles are over 10 years old, with degraded pollution control devices. Poor maintenance practices, such as using substandard fuel or urea, exacerbate emissions.

The draft emphasizes the urgent need for standardized replacement pollution control devices, as the current market lacks unified regulations, leading to inconsistent product quality and weak oversight.

Data from the *China Statistical Yearbook (2024)* shows approximately 100 million vehicles undergo annual inspections, with 3%–8% failing emission tests. Assuming 70% of repaired vehicles require after-treatment system replacements, annual demand is estimated at 2.1–5.6 million units.

Market research reveals that while demand is high, the diversity of vehicle types (China IV to China VI standards, diesel/gasoline/natural gas fuels, and light/heavy-duty categories) complicates the aftermarket. Replacement parts vary widely, with original equipment manufacturer (OEM) components accounting for less than 5% of the market due to high costs and supply delays. Non-OEM parts dominate with over 95% market share.

The draft proposes key measures: - Replacement devices are only for out-of-warranty vehicles. - Introduction of vehicle emission reduction efficiency metrics. - Enhanced regulatory performance verification methods. - New technical requirements for motorcycles and mopeds.

The standard covers light-duty vehicles, heavy-duty trucks, motorcycles, and mopeds.

The new regulations aim to lower costs by enabling direct market access for pollution control device suppliers, bypassing traditional OEM channels. This shift is expected to benefit consumers while ensuring product quality through stricter compliance checks.

A pilot study involving 72 non-compliant vehicles (spanning various emission standards and brands) demonstrated significant emission reductions and onboard diagnostics (OBD) compatibility after installing replacement devices.

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