Founder Securities released a research report stating that two major central enterprises have completed record-breaking order signings, potentially leading a new round of fleet upgrades. In the medium to long term, structural changes such as the aging of the global fleet (with many vessel types reaching record-high ages) and the decarbonization transformation of global shipping (as of August, dual-fuel vessels accounted for only 3.7% of the current fleet and orders under construction) will provide sustained support. In the short term, the tanker and dry bulk sectors may see synchronized growth, with the profit effect from rising freight rates likely to further transmit upstream to the shipbuilding industry. The report believes that the three core issues suppressing new orders—"nowhere to build," "no funds to build," and "uncertainty over what to build"—will be fully resolved by 2026, maintaining a long-term bullish outlook on the shipbuilding market's upward trajectory. Founder Securities highlights that the shipbuilding sector currently offers long-term growth potential, earnings certainty, and reasonable valuations, making its investment value increasingly prominent. Key points from the report are as follows:
**Record-Breaking Order Signings by Two Major Central Enterprises May Lead New Fleet Upgrades** On December 8, 2025, China State Shipbuilding Corporation (CSSC) and China COSCO Shipping Group signed a cooperation agreement in Shanghai for a new shipbuilding project involving 87 vessels worth over RMB 50 billion. This collaboration goes beyond short-term order significance, forming a "manufacturing + operations" closed-loop partnership that not only ensures capacity upgrades and energy security for China's domestic shipping network but also creates exportable green and intelligent vessel solutions. This will help China's shipbuilding industry enhance pricing power and brand influence in high-end vessel segments, transitioning from scale advantages to technological and ecological leadership. The deal marks not only the highest-value single domestic order signed by Chinese shipbuilders but also a milestone in strategic synergy between global top-tier shipbuilders and shipping companies amid the accelerating green and intelligent transformation of the industry, potentially heralding a new wave of fleet upgrades and industrial collaboration.
**November Orders Rebound Strongly, Chinese Shipbuilders Remain Top Choice for Owners** Despite a cooling global newbuild market this year due to shipyards' full order schedules dampening owners' willingness to order and policy uncertainties (such as U.S. tariffs, Section 301, and IMO net-zero agreements) exacerbating wait-and-see sentiment, November saw a notable rebound. From January to November, global new vessel orders totaled 1,627 ships (44.99 million CGT), down 37% year-on-year in CGT terms. However, November alone recorded 152 orders (5.13 million CGT), a 72% increase from October's 2.99 million CGT. On the supply side, Chinese shipyards remain the preferred choice for owners due to their leading global position in pricing, quality, and delivery timelines. Chinese builders secured 1,067 orders (26.64 million CGT) in the first 11 months, down 47% year-on-year but maintaining a 59% market share—the highest globally. They topped the monthly order rankings nine times, excluding January and March.
**Tanker and Dry Bulk Demand Poised for Synchronized Growth, Long-Term Optimism for Shipbuilding Market Uptrend** Medium- to long-term structural drivers include global fleet aging and shipping decarbonization. Short-term catalysts include potential synchronized growth in tanker and dry bulk demand, with rising freight rates' profit effects likely to transmit to shipbuilders. In tankers, increased crude output from the Middle East and South America in H2 2025, coupled with India's higher imports from non-Russian suppliers, have driven VLCC rates to elevated levels, translating into shipbuilding demand. Clarksons data shows 38 new VLCC orders since July, far exceeding the 12 in H1. For dry bulk, the new energy supply chain is becoming a "new source of bulk demand," with rapid growth in minor commodities like aluminum and cobalt. The BDI surged 31.4% in November. Guinea's Simandou iron ore project, launched in November, is expected to bring long-term volume growth to shipping, with Drewry estimating it will spur demand for 116 new Capesize bulkers. Founder Securities anticipates the three order-suppressing issues will be resolved by 2026, reinforcing long-term optimism for the shipbuilding market.
**Risks:** Macroeconomic volatility, raw material price fluctuations, and exchange rate risks.
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