除了卖出比亚迪，巴菲特三季度还干了什么？

财经杂志2022-11-15

巴菲特的投资理念中有一个几乎不变的逻辑，那就是买入的股票除了股价具备增长潜力，还必须有良好的分红能力。文 | 张云巴菲特最新的持仓与调仓数据似乎正越来越超乎投资者的预期。2022年11月14日，巴菲特执掌的伯克希尔·哈撒韦公布了截至今年三季度末持仓数据——即13F文件，该公司在三季度出资41亿美元（约合288.81亿元人民币）买进了不久前遭遇“砍单”事件的台积电。这是伯克希尔·哈撒韦三季度买入最多...

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新条茜
2022-11-21
新条茜
減持比亞迪是因爲巴老師在別的股票虧慘了
Paggie
2022-11-16
Paggie
閱
CMLeong
2022-11-16
CMLeong
好
hhyw
2022-11-16
hhyw
好
百汇
2022-11-16
百汇
[思考]
霹雳倍倍22
2022-11-15
霹雳倍倍22
臺積電再被砍單也依舊是唯一的臺積電蘋果都不能沒有臺積電
- hhyw:
  好

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Capital。11月11日香港联合交易所公布的文件显示，伯克希尔·哈撒韦再度出售578万股比亚迪H股股份，套现金额约11.38亿港元。这是伯克希尔·哈撒韦年内的第四次有公开数据的比亚迪减持行为。根据减持均价粗略估算，今年该公司约减持了25.18亿港元（约合22.64亿元人民币）的比亚迪H股。以持股比例来算，伯克希尔·哈撒韦对比亚迪的持股已经从今年6月30日中报披露时的占H股总股本的20.49%，下降至如今的16.62%。比亚迪10月销售数据显示，该公司10月产量220107辆，同比增长147.23%，环比增长7.43%；销量217816辆，同比增长142.19%，环比增长8.23%，产销数据依然亮眼。同时比亚迪披露的投资者关系活动文件显示，进入11月后，该公司已经密集接待了十批机构投资者进行调研，频率较前几个月大幅增加。伯克希尔·哈撒韦披露的三季度持仓数据，引发市场投资者的关注，主要集中在两个方面：一是买入台积电的逻辑；二是减持比亚迪的逻辑。市场人士普遍认为，巴菲特购入台积电，相当于认同未来芯片在各行各业中的重要性。13F文件发布后的11月15日，叠加隔夜中美首脑会晤的利好，A股中的半导体公司开始发力，Wind（万得）半导体指数（886063.WI）全天上涨4.86%，成交金额达到825.77亿元。至于巴菲特为何减持比亚迪，和合首创（香港）执行董事陈达对《财经》记者表示，并不需要过度的解读，“估值高了就卖，也是多年的投资了，收益颇丰。”买入台积电，释放什么信号？台积电是今年争议相当大的一家上市公司。根据2021年数据，台积电前十大客户营收贡献中，苹果（APPL.US）公司占据绝对优势地位，该公司对台积电的营收贡献占比约为25.93%，第二大客户联发科占比只有5.80%。今年7月，外媒报道称台积电遭苹果、英伟达、AMD三大核心客户削减订单，其中，最大客户苹果削减了10%，AMD传闻削减了2万片7nm（纳米）及6nm晶圆。台积电对该消息不予置评，但当时其股价一夜下跌5.81%。11月初，又有消息称，由于3nm制程大客户临时取消订单，台积电大幅减少供应链订单，最多高达四五成，涵盖再生晶圆、关键耗材、设备等领域。台积电再次不回应该消息，只对外表示，3nm制程进度无改变。下游供应商方面则对外称，台积电的订单在三季度末确实有转弱。台积电并不是苹果产业链中唯一遭遇“砍单”的上市公司，歌尔股份（002241.SZ）同期也宣布了遭遇“砍单”，天风国际分析师郭明錤称，歌尔股份被砍的是高端无线耳机AirPods Pro2，停产比较可能源于生产问题，而非需求问题。高盛早前的一份研究报告显示，台积电在今年10月的分析师电话会议上，态度比此前的电话会议更为保守，“明确的说，台积电承认它看到了来自需求疲弱的影响。”在该电话会议上，台积电管理层表示将进一步把2022年的资本支出下降到360亿美元左右，此前外界一直认为台积电今年资本支出将保持在400亿美元。高盛认为，该资本支出削减计划比预期提前了，“此前我们预计削减计划在2023年”。悲观的情绪在产业链上下游弥漫，业内人士纷纷感叹这是半导体行业的艰难时刻，台积电股价也从今年1月的143.02美元高位一直下跌到最近的72.80美元附近，最低曾报59.43美元，截至11月14日数据，台积电从高位下跌了44.18%。以最低点计算，下跌幅度则有53.78%。在此情形下，巴菲特出手了。三季度中，伯克希尔·哈撒韦买入41亿美元、约6006万股的台积电。整个三季度，台积电股价下跌了26.61%，均价为83.25美元左右。这是巴菲特又一次大举买入科技股，不少人将其对台积电的投资与当初买入苹果的投资相提并论。一位伯克希尔·哈撒韦股东公开表示，该笔投资意味着伯克希尔·哈撒韦相信世界离不开台积电生产的产品。一位科技行业的分析师则对《财经》记者表示，该笔投资说明巴菲特在逆势布局苹果产业链的上游企业，“苹果是近年巴菲特最大手笔的科技投资，其丰厚的分红与回购给股东带来了巨大收益。在巴菲特的投资理念中有一个几乎不变的逻辑，那就是买入的股票除了股价具备增长潜力，还必须有良好的分红能力。”台积电是否与苹果一样具备良好的持续分红能力？Wind数据显示，近十年间，台积电在中国台湾地区的上市主体每年都有现金股利的分配，有时甚至会进行季度、半年度分红。台积电近三年在美股中的上市主体分红率为7.49%，苹果公司近十年分红率为16.94%。（台积电美股的分红数据）2022年巴菲特在致股东的信中曾经盛赞苹果的回购魔法，“对苹果的增持并没有花费伯克希尔的资金，而是苹果的回购起了作用。”但值得注意的是，台积电并不像苹果一样热衷于回购。今年10月，台积电管理层在三季度业绩发布后曾表示，台积电目前没有回购计划。减持比亚迪，浮盈近25倍除了逆势买入台积电，巴菲特近期另外一件颇受关注的投资行动则是持续减持比亚迪H股。根据香港联合交易所披露的数据，今年8月，巴菲特减持了133.10万股比亚迪H股，平均出售价格为277.1港元/股，约套现3.69亿港元；9月，减持了171.60万股，平均出售价格为262.72港元/股，约套现4.5亿港元；11月1日，减持了329.70万股，平均出售价格为169.87港元/股，约套现5.6亿港元；11月11日，减持了578.25万股，平均出售价格为196.99港元/股，约套现11.38亿港元。巴菲特持续减持背后是比亚迪亮眼的产销数据。天风证券表示，比亚迪10月新能源汽车产销量分别达22.01万辆和21.78万辆，延续9月超越20万辆的成绩，并双双创下历史新高。产销比约101.05%，产销数量接近，基本处于满销状态。在10月汽车市场需求减弱的背景下，比亚迪仍稳定住了优秀的产销增速。9月比亚迪新能源汽车动力电池及储能电池装机总量约为8.610GWh(千兆瓦时）。10月装机总量达10.188GWh，环比增长18%。2022年累计装机总量约为67.681GWh。各条战线产销数据一片大好，为何巴菲特依然持续减持？陈达认为，也许是估值合适，目前比亚迪的股价反映了比较乐观的预期，“价值投资也不是持有到永远”。国信证券一份汽车行业的研究报告显示，中信一级行业中的汽车行业整体PE（市盈率）为 42.74倍（截至11月11日），在所有中信一级行业中排第六，估值处于中上水平。纵向来看，汽车行业市盈率自 2021 年底以来经历大幅回调，从高位 55倍 以上的估值下修了约10%，目前已逐渐恢复至 2021 年初的水平。（中信一级行业汽车行业PE走势）但从十年的维度来看，汽车行业的估值仍在历史高位区间震荡。就比亚迪个股来说，比亚迪股份（H股）最高PE曾经在300倍左右，近期下降到50倍，近两年的平均PE高达149.23倍。（比亚迪近年PE变化）分红方面，比亚迪股份在近十年保持了11.37%的分红率，较台积电更高。但后者的PE在今年震荡下行的市场中，跌到了最新的12.75倍，而苹果公司的最新PE为23.64倍。以估值和分红综合考虑下，台积电显然要更契合巴菲特的建仓喜好。有市场观点认为，美国通胀见顶后美股的吸引力提升，巴菲特减持比亚迪是为了回归美国市场抄底。曾在华尔街任职的陈达并不认同该观点，“伯克希尔·哈撒韦不缺现金，没有这种必要，比亚迪中的资金并不多。”根据伯克希尔·哈撒韦最新的业绩报告，该公司现金和短期投资两项一共有超过1000亿美元。（伯克希尔·哈撒韦三季报中的现金流状况）按照香港联合交易所公布的数据显示，目前伯克希尔·哈撒韦对比亚迪的持股约为1.91亿股，11月15日，这部分股权的市值为373.37亿港元（约合47.72亿美元）。巴菲特2008年入股比亚迪的时候，每股成本约为8港元，今年四次减持平均价格已经涨到了每股207.75港元左右，十四年间光是股票单价就已经上涨了2496%，投资收益已经相当丰厚。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":667552400,"gmtCreate":1669026876101,"gmtModify":1676538141501,"author":{"id":"3569230423286062","authorId":"3569230423286062","name":"新条茜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0a7b3090349366c0e1d5800aea93aae","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3569230423286062","authorIdStr":"3569230423286062"},"htmlText":"減持比亞迪是因爲巴老師在別的股票虧慘了","listText":"減持比亞迪是因爲巴老師在別的股票虧慘了","text":"減持比亞迪是因爲巴老師在別的股票虧慘了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/667552400","repostId":1151505719,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9963073587,"gmtCreate":1668559165449,"gmtModify":1676538075360,"author":{"id":"4111640372193142","authorId":"4111640372193142","name":"Paggie","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/34e78ada667e7b63c0632c8f2d0fc95f","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4111640372193142","authorIdStr":"4111640372193142"},"htmlText":"閱","listText":"閱","text":"閱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9963073587","repostId":1151505719,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9963064305,"gmtCreate":1668556137907,"gmtModify":1676538074300,"author":{"id":"3583571794110805","authorId":"3583571794110805","name":"CMLeong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3583571794110805","authorIdStr":"3583571794110805"},"htmlText":"好","listText":"好","text":"好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9963064305","repostId":1151505719,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9963087842,"gmtCreate":1668555354287,"gmtModify":1676538074064,"author":{"id":"3561544476596136","authorId":"3561544476596136","name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3561544476596136","authorIdStr":"3561544476596136"},"htmlText":"好","listText":"好","text":"好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9963087842","repostId":1151505719,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9963090772,"gmtCreate":1668551479396,"gmtModify":1676538072841,"author":{"id":"4098842610598930","authorId":"4098842610598930","name":"百汇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31678af4c548818cbd1ca8654ad27c8f","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4098842610598930","authorIdStr":"4098842610598930"},"htmlText":"&nbsp;&nbsp;[思考]&nbsp;","listText":"&nbsp;&nbsp;[思考]&nbsp;","text":"[思考]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9963090772","repostId":1151505719,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":667970038,"gmtCreate":1668525468426,"gmtModify":1676538071036,"author":{"id":"127367578255012","authorId":"127367578255012","name":"霹雳倍倍22","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc676dd91955af30ed35cff84054f284","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"127367578255012","authorIdStr":"127367578255012"},"htmlText":"臺積電再被砍單也依舊是唯一的臺積電 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