Standard Chartered's North Asia Chief Investment Officer,郑子丰, stated that despite significant corrections in overseas markets, mainland Chinese and Hong Kong equities have faced less pressure. This is primarily due to investors diversifying their US dollar-denominated portfolios, leading to expectations of increased capital allocation to mainland and Hong Kong stocks. He noted that Middle Eastern funds have already begun flowing into relatively stable Asian markets, particularly Hong Kong, with the influx expected to become more pronounced in the coming months.
Regarding the Hang Seng Index,郑子丰 indicated that due to the outbreak of Middle East conflicts, the bank has narrowed its 12-month target range from 28,000-30,000 points to 28,000-29,000 points. However, he considers current index levels as relatively reasonable, primarily because the Renminbi has shown resilience compared to other currencies. Although corporate earnings have been mixed, the economy has already bottomed out.
郑子丰 further recommended that investors increase their holdings in the Hang Seng Tech Index. This is mainly because major mainland platform companies have shifted from minimal capital expenditure in recent years to increased investment, reflecting growing confidence in their future prospects. Additionally, mainland China's allowance for certain unicorn companies to list in Hong Kong is expected to diversify the index's constituents, bringing transformative changes over the next five years.
Regarding monetary policy,郑子丰 said the bank anticipates that with potential deterioration in the US economy, the Federal Reserve may begin preparing for interest rate cuts in the second half of the year starting May-June under new Chair Waller. The expected reduction has increased from 0.25% to 0.5%. International oil prices could potentially reach $100-110 per barrel, but are expected to decline medium-to-long term due to substantial US crude supply. The price gap between WTI crude and Brent crude is anticipated to widen significantly, with WTI prices remaining substantially lower than Brent.
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