The Houthi rebels in Yemen announced on the 20th a "maritime embargo" against Saudi Arabia, effective immediately. The Saudi-led military coalition responded by stating it has taken measures to ensure the safe passage of member states' vessels through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and will firmly counter any threats posed by the group.
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a critical chokepoint connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. With the Strait of Hormuz facing navigation challenges, the Red Sea route has become a vital alternative for Saudi crude oil exports. A blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait would impose significant additional pressure on Saudi oil exports and global crude supplies. Analysts suggest this Houthi threat reflects long-standing tensions with Saudi Arabia and also serves as a move to support Iran amid its ongoing intense confrontation with the United States.
An Airport Attack as the Trigger
The Houthi rebels, closely aligned with Iran and in a prolonged standoff with the Saudi-backed Yemeni government, currently control the capital Sana'a, the Red Sea port city of Hodeidah, and other northwestern regions. Observers believe an attack on Sana'a International Airport last week served as the catalyst for the Houthi announcement of a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia.
The Yemeni government forces claimed responsibility for an airstrike on Sana'a International Airport on the 13th, stating the aim was to prevent an Iranian aircraft carrying a Houthi delegation from landing. The delegation had traveled to Iran for the funeral of the late Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei. The Yemeni government had proposed that the delegation return on a non-Iranian flight under government supervision, a condition rejected by the Houthis. Following the airport attack, the aircraft diverted to Hodeidah Airport.
The Houthis blamed Saudi Arabia for the airstrike and later launched missiles and drones at Abha International Airport in southwestern Saudi Arabia. The Saudi-led coalition stated its air defenses intercepted the incoming projectiles. On the 20th, the Saudi foreign ministry issued a statement condemning the Houthis for fabricating "false allegations against Saudi Arabia."
Media reports noted that these incidents have disrupted the general ceasefire that had largely held between the Houthis, the Yemeni government, and Saudi Arabia since 2022. Houthi leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi recently warned that if Saudi Arabia escalates military actions against the group, Saudi oil facilities and other strategic infrastructure would become targets.
Threats to Shipping and Oil Supply
The Houthis have not specified how the "maritime embargo" would be enforced. However, a Houthi official stated that, based on a principle of "blockade for blockade," the group would "close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait" to Saudi Arabia. Analysts warn that if the Houthis follow through, it could severely impact Saudi oil exports and essential imports.
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which falls within areas under Houthi influence, is a crucial maritime passage connecting the Atlantic, Mediterranean, and Indian Oceans. Prior to the outbreak of US-Iran hostilities, approximately 12% of global oil shipments transited through this strait. Since the conflict began, to avoid the hampered Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has increasingly routed crude from its eastern oilfields to the western Yanbu port for export via the Red Sea. Data from market intelligence firm Kpler shows that since July, crude oil and condensate shipped from Yanbu port have accounted for 75% of Saudi Arabia's daily oil exports.
As a major global crude supplier, any disruption to Saudi exports would place further strain on international energy markets. Al Jazeera analysis suggests that with the Strait of Hormuz already obstructed, a blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could jeopardize roughly 25% of the world's crude oil supply.
The Houthis have demonstrated their capability to create risks in the Red Sea. Following the outbreak of the latest Israel-Hamas conflict in October 2023, the group frequently attacked Israeli and US vessels transiting the Red Sea in solidarity with Palestine, prompting numerous international shipping firms to abandon the route.
Analysts, including Mohammed al-Basha from the US-based "Basha Report" consultancy, note that while the specific types of vessels targeted by the Houthi "embargo" remain unclear, the mere announcement of such a threat—given the group's proven ability to menace Red Sea shipping—is sufficient to drive up maritime transport costs and elevate global oil prices.
The Dual Strategic Game Behind the Embargo Threat
Analysts point to two primary reasons behind the Houthi threat of a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia.
First, it stems from long-standing grievances between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia related to the Yemeni civil war. Professor Ding Long from the Middle East Studies Institute at Shanghai International Studies University suggests the Houthi threat is partly aimed at pressuring Saudi Arabia to gain greater leverage and strengthen their de facto control within Yemen.
Second, it serves to support Iran in its confrontation with the United States. Reuters reported last week, citing sources, that Iran had requested the Houthis to be prepared to block Red Sea oil channels should the US military strike Iranian infrastructure. The sources also indicated the Houthis have deployed missiles and drones on high ground near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in preparation for such a maritime blockade.
Professor Ding Long explains that Iran has long viewed the Houthis as a "trump card" held in reserve. By coordinating actions, the two could create a linked deterrent involving both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, threatening the energy lifelines of the US and its allies and destabilizing global supply chains. This strategy aims to force the US to weigh the economic and political costs before escalating military action against Iran.
However, regional experts believe the Houthi embargo threat against Saudi Arabia may not be fully implemented. Yemeni political analyst Muqbil al-Naji argues that the Houthis are not seeking a decisive military confrontation with Saudi Arabia but rather aim to increase their bargaining power in negotiations over Yemen. Saudi Arabia, for its part, has shown restraint and is not currently seeking to escalate military operations.
Furthermore, the dynamics between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia are influenced by the evolving relationship between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Researcher Abdulaziz al-Shabani from the Riyadh-based Political and Strategic Studies Center notes that both Saudi Arabia and Iran are currently focused on easing bilateral tensions strained by the US-Iran conflict. While disagreements exist on regional issues like Yemen, both nations have expressed a willingness to manage the situation through diplomatic channels, which could provide conditions to prevent an escalation of confrontation between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia.
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