The two hottest-performing stocks in the U.S. market in 2025 might surprise you. Neither is tied to tech giants like Meta, NVIDIA, Google, Amazon, Netflix, Apple, Microsoft, or Tesla, nor are they linked to trending sectors like Bitcoin, AI, or humanoid robotics. Yet their remarkable performance is deeply connected to the real state of the U.S. economy.
These companies are Dollar Tree (DLTR) and Dollar General (DG). Year-to-date, their stock prices have surged 55% and 65%, respectively, while NVIDIA has gained just 35%.
This week, both retailers—operating thousands of stores nationwide and serving as key shopping destinations for American households—released earnings reports with staggering results.
Dollar General posted a 2.5% increase in same-store sales for Q3, while Dollar Tree’s same-store sales jumped 4.2%. In contrast, Target recently reported a 3.8% decline in same-store sales.
Dollar Tree revealed it added 3 million new customers this quarter, expanding its existing base of 100 million shoppers.
“About 60% of new shoppers come from households earning over $100,000 annually, 30% from middle-income families ($60,000–$100,000), and the remaining 10% from lower-income households (under $60,000),” said Dollar Tree CEO Michael Creedon.
He added, “Higher-income families are shifting to Dollar Tree, while lower-income households rely on us more than ever. For instance, spending growth per trip among lower-income shoppers was twice that of higher-income groups in Q3.”
If these figures don’t signal a U.S. consumer affordability crisis, I might as well quit and apply for a job at Dollar Tree’s finance department—assuming AI hasn’t taken over.
Dollar General CEO Todd Vasos echoed similar economic concerns, noting increased foot traffic.
“Average item prices rose, but basket sizes shrank, offsetting each other,” Vasos said. “This traffic-and-basket shift aligns with historical patterns: when core shoppers face financial strain, they visit more often but spend less per trip.”
You might ask, “Should I buy these stocks now?” While I’d love to offer a clear analyst recommendation, I can’t. But one thing is certain: The market trends these retailers highlight won’t reverse overnight.
As long as inflation pressures persist in housing, healthcare, and food, their performance should remain robust. Given reasonable growth expectations, their valuations aren’t excessively high.
To close, here’s a quote from former Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard: “On the surface, the U.S. economy appears strong, but this is largely driven by AI investments. Beneath that, other sectors are stagnating,” she told me at Yahoo Finance’s Investment Summit in November.
She added, “Clearly, the bottom 50%—even 75%—of earners face acute affordability stress. Consumer sentiment surveys confirm their worries about weaker job quality versus a year ago. Meanwhile, the top 10% enjoy rising home equity and stock portfolio gains.”
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