Last week, Hong Kong stocks once again sought lower support, pressured by turmoil in the Middle East and the continued climb in US 10-year Treasury yields. Over the weekend, former US President Donald Trump stated that a peace agreement with Iran was "largely negotiated" and he planned to announce a deal soon to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a development viewed positively by capital markets. However, negative factors persist: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's reaffirmation of a hawkish stance has dampened Wall Street's hopes for rate cuts; and Chinese regulators have taken serious action against cross-border business operations by institutions like Futu and Tiger Brokers. On May 22, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission introduced new account opening regulations, further tightening review standards. Capital flow dynamics warrant close attention.
Domestically, China's official May manufacturing PMI and April industrial enterprise profit data are due this week. The US April PCE data, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, will be released on Thursday, directly influencing market expectations for the timing of potential rate cuts within the year. As the month-end approaches, market volatility is expected to increase further. Technology remains the dominant market theme, but investors should be mindful of trading rhythms.
A major market development was Huawei's official global release of a new guiding principle for the semiconductor sector, termed the "Tau Law," at the 2026 International Symposium on Circuits and Systems in Shanghai on May 25. Presented by He Tingbo, a Huawei director and president of its semiconductor business, the core of this principle involves logic folding technology at the circuit level. This technology aims to break the performance constraints imposed by advanced process nodes on domestic chips. Huawei anticipates achieving chip performance equivalent to the 1.4nm process node by 2031. This announcement is expected to directly stimulate related stocks across domestic chip manufacturing, advanced packaging, and domestic EDA sectors.
A significant coal mine accident in Shanxi is anticipated to substantially increase domestic safety inspection pressure. This may lead capital to focus on underground robotics and unmanned mining vehicle (L4 scenario) applications, enhancing their essential demand profile. Concurrently, with persistent geopolitical tensions reducing imports and peak demand season approaching, a second round of coal price increases is anticipated.
The JD.com 618 shopping festival commenced at 8 PM on May 30, with AI playing a key role in this year's event. Consumer-related sectors may see performance during market adjustments.
【Stock Focus】SMIC (00981) On May 25, 2026, Huawei officially unveiled the "Tau Law." In essence, this represents a novel approach to IC design layout, modifying internal routing sequences to reduce path lengths, combined with advanced 3D stacking packaging processes. The core lies in the collaborative result of design, advanced packaging, EDA/IP, and equipment/materials. The "Tau Law" is seen as a way to circumvent process equipment restrictions and achieve performance equivalent to the 1.4nm node. Its core enabling process is advanced packaging technology. For advanced AI chips, the cost contribution of advanced packaging is now approaching or even surpassing that of the advanced process node itself. Institutions believe the restrictions have spurred not just replacements, but a new paradigm. Once this methodology—encompassing EDA tools, layout optimization algorithms, IP reuse platforms, and Chiplet interconnect standards—is validated, the entire domestic chain from equipment to design to packaging and testing stands to benefit. The commercial debut of the Kirin chip in autumn 2026 opens a highly persuasive window for product validation. The domestic chip industry chain is undergoing a value reassessment.
SMIC is regarded as a key platform for the industrialization of the "Tau Law" technological roadmap. As the sole major domestic manufacturer capable of providing Huawei with 14nm/7nm/N+3 processes, SMIC's N+2 and above process nodes are deeply synergistic with Huawei, perfectly aligning with the new solution that does not rely on EUV lithography machines. Currently, Huawei's Kirin, Ascend, and Kunpeng chips are 100% outsourced to SMIC, with locked-in massive capacity requirements for up to five years, providing SMIC with high earnings certainty and revenue security.
【Industry Watch】 Unitree Robotics' IPO hearing is scheduled for June 1, potentially catalyzing the robotics sector. In Q1 2026, Unitree achieved revenue of 423 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 68.49%, though decelerating from the high growth rate of 2025. Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was 40 million yuan, down 52.55% year-on-year. Based on the median forecast in its prospectus, the company expects H1 2026 revenue of 1.09 billion yuan, up 40.52% year-on-year, with non-GAAP net profit of 260 million yuan, down 14.20% year-on-year. Short-term pressure on profits is primarily attributed to increased investment in R&D, sales, and management for embodied AI models, robot本体, and new product iteration, leading to a temporary rise in expense ratios.
With Unitree's IPO hearing set for June 1, the ongoing capital market activities of leading本体 manufacturers are expected to heighten market focus on the industrialization of humanoid robots. In the near term, H2 2026 presents a significant event window featuring the potential release of Tesla's V3 robot and related supply chain orders, coupled with the listing timeline for domestic leaders. Subsequent listings by companies like Zhiyuan and Galaxy General are also anticipated, providing strong catalysts. As mass production of robots draws nearer, the industry chain is consolidating, with suppliers gradually securing orders and entering production phases. In Hong Kong stocks, direct attention falls on SHOUCHENG (00697) and supply chain-related Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.,Ltd. (02050).
【Market Data】 Hong Kong Exchanges data shows the total number of open contracts for Hang Seng Index Futures (May) is 112,300, with a net open interest of 33,680. The settlement date for May contracts is May 28, 2026. With futures settlement this week, the Hang Seng Index徘徊 around 25,606 points. The牛熊证密集区 deviates from the central axis, as the Hong Kong market hesitates, observing movements in A-shares and US stocks. US stocks have decoupled from US Treasuries, with the latter facing selling pressure. As June begins and with events like the World Cup approaching, new variables could emerge at any time. The outlook for the Hang Seng Index this week is bearish.
Penalties and the two-year rectification period for cross-border brokerages will undoubtedly cause short-term sentiment shocks, particularly as mainland capital channeled through platforms like Futu, Tiger, and Longbridge may migrate, front-run, or undergo被动调整. However, in terms of scale, even estimating the related Hong Kong stock assets at one to two hundred billion Hong Kong dollars, when spread across the entire market and over a two-year周期, it is unlikely to constitute a systemic冲击. The real issue lies in the structure: core assets within Stock Connect, such as Tencent, Alibaba, and Meituan, still have support from southbound capital and compliant channels. However, for small-cap stocks and illiquid emerging targets outside Stock Connect, the marginal buy-side has been severed, potentially accelerating their transformation into "penny stocks." The second half of the year also brings叠加限售股解禁, with September being a peak pressure point. Coupled with IPO分流 and external interest rate uncertainty, Hong Kong's market liquidity will face repeated tests. Therefore, this week's market movement may not be a one-sided decline but rather a repricing driven by negative news: large caps may not panic, but small caps could face greater hardship; volatility in core assets might also present opportunities, while stocks lacking liquidity require greater caution. The logic for a Hong Kong market recovery remains, but future success will depend more on stock selection rather than simply betting on the index.
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