On March 13, the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting will serve as a critical turning point. Markets are highly focused on whether the Fed will remove its "accommodative bias" from the policy statement and adjust the median expectation for interest rate cuts this year from one to zero. Should the Fed adopt a more hawkish stance in response to energy price shocks, gold prices could further test support levels below the key $5,000 psychological mark. However, as long as there is no substantive de-escalation of conflict in the Middle East, with oil prices remaining high and inflation expectations continuing to rise, safe-haven demand for gold is unlikely to truly dissipate.
From a medium to long-term perspective, the gold market in 2026 is destined to be turbulent. Frequent geopolitical black swan events, ongoing central bank gold purchases, and underlying concerns about US dollar credibility are structural factors collectively forming the foundation for a gold super-cycle. The current pullback appears more like a brief pause within a storm rather than a trend reversal. For investors, this may present a strategic window for establishing positions at elevated levels or adding to holdings on dips—after all, in this era of heightened uncertainty, gold is not a tool for quick profits but the last line of defense for preserving wealth. The US January PCE data, a key inflation metric closely watched by the Fed, will be released today and warrants close attention from investors.
From a daily chart perspective, the downward trend in gold was widely anticipated. Fundamentally, following the outbreak of Middle East tensions, market liquidity has shown a stronger preference for the US dollar and crude oil, leading to a decline in gold's safe-haven appeal. Technically, the prolonged overbought condition had built up significant correction risks, and the recent formation of a "descending continuation pattern" also signaled a high probability of a market adjustment. However, the extended consolidation over nearly seven trading sessions had introduced considerable uncertainty into short-term price action. Last night's breach below the daily moving average band finally confirmed the descending continuation pattern, significantly increasing the likelihood of a continued downtrend.
Today, technical structure on the daily chart suggests watching for a retest of resistance in the 5,130-5,150 zone, which is the former moving average support band. As long as prices remain below this zone, the short-term structural bias for gold remains tilted to the downside, with potential for a further retreat towards 5,000, and possibly even the lower boundary of the daily chart's trading range near 4,920-4,900.
Analyzing the hourly chart, gold initially rebounded yesterday to test resistance in the 5,180-5,190 area. After consolidating under pressure in this zone, selling momentum intensified during the late session, driving prices down to around 5,055. Although a minor rebound has occurred, a clear downtrend is now established on the hourly timeframe. Immediate resistance is seen near 5,125-5,130, followed by the trendline resistance around 5,160. Technically, the session may see weak, consolidative trade, but whether the decline extends further may depend on fundamental catalysts, where an absence of positive news could effectively serve as a negative driver. Initial support on the hourly chart is viewed around the 5,060-5,050 trendline. A break below this level could open the path towards a test of the crucial 5,000 level.
For trading strategy, the primary outlook for gold today remains biased towards a corrective decline. Traders holding short positions initiated near 5,180-5,190 may consider partial profit-taking while moving stops to breakeven on the remainder. Aggressive traders might consider new short entries near 5,130-5,135, with additional light positioning possible near 5,150. A unified manual stop-loss above 5,160 is advised. Initial targets lie below 5,100, at which point stops can be moved to breakeven, or partial profits can be taken. Remaining positions can be held to monitor the battle for 5,060-5,050 and the 5,000 level, with a portion potentially kept as medium-term holdings. With gold currently lacking upward momentum, the short-term trading bias favors shorts over longs.
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