Indonesia's nickel ore market is experiencing a price inversion against benchmark rates, placing small and medium-sized miners in a difficult position of low selling prices and high taxes, squeezing their operational margins from both sides. Meanwhile, the domestic spot price for Yangtze River 1# nickel averaged 130,050 yuan per ton today, rising 1,200 yuan in a single day. These opposing forces from external and internal markets are pulling nickel prices in different directions, amplifying market divergence.
According to a recent industry observation report, a pricing dislocation has emerged in the Indonesian nickel ore market. Influenced by both supply-demand dynamics and pricing mechanisms, profit distribution within the industrial chain has become unbalanced. The operational pressure on small and medium-sized nickel mining enterprises continues to mount, with the dilemma of low prices and high taxes presenting a challenge unlikely to be resolved in the short term.
The spot price for Yangtze River 1# nickel averaged 130,050 yuan per ton, an increase of 1,200 yuan from the previous day, with trading ranging between 128,850 and 131,250 yuan per ton. A resurgence of buying interest in the spot market has reversed the previously declining price trend, prompting traders to accelerate their sales pace.
The latest price for Shanghai nickel futures is 129,330 yuan per ton, up 630 yuan. During the trading session, the price fluctuated narrowly around the 129,000 yuan level, with an intraday amplitude of approximately 1,640 yuan. The futures price increase lagged behind the spot market's rise, reflecting continued investor caution regarding further upside potential.
The average price for nickel sulfate remained flat at 33,100 yuan per ton, while nickel chloride also traded sideways at 39,300 yuan per ton. Demand for nickel salts from the new energy sector has not yet accelerated, creating a contrast with the strengthening spot price for electrolytic nickel and highlighting a growing divergence in demand structure.
Stainless steel, as the primary consumer of nickel, sets the fundamental demand tone based on its production schedules. The current sideways movement in nickel salt prices suggests a drag from the new energy sector, while the anticipated peak season demand for stainless steel remains unconfirmed. Consequently, demand-side factors are currently unable to provide sustained upward momentum for nickel prices.
Shanghai nickel inventories for the week ending July 10 stood at 99,097 tons, a weekly decrease of 2,525 tons, continuing a destocking trend. However, the absolute inventory level remains relatively high, imposing a latent constraint on any price rebound. The inventory decline appears to reflect improved circulation rather than a significant acceleration in end-user consumption.
If Indonesia further tightens its export pace, the ore price inversion could transmit to refined nickel production costs and potentially push up import prices for nickel pig iron. Market attention will subsequently focus on the implementation details of Indonesian policies and changes in domestic social inventories. It remains to be seen whether the current contradictions in the ore segment will translate into a sustained upward shift in the market's price center.
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