Iran's Supreme Leader's senior advisor for international affairs, Velayati, warned the United States last week that the Resistance Front could move to further blockade the Mandeb Strait. The impact of such an action would extend beyond the ongoing conflict, potentially exacerbating the global energy supply crisis triggered by regional tensions. In 2024, approximately 4.1 billion barrels of crude oil and refined products transited the Mandeb Strait, accounting for 5% of global volumes. A simultaneous closure of both the Mandeb Strait and the Strait of Hormuz would cut off 25% of the world's oil and gas supplies. It would also severely disrupt maritime shipping from Asia to Europe. Roughly 10% of global trade passes through the Mandeb Strait, including containers shipped from China, India, and other Asian nations to Europe. With the Strait of Hormuz under significant Iranian influence, the strategic importance of the Mandeb Strait for Europe has increased substantially.
Elisabeth Kendall, Principal of Girton College, Cambridge, cautioned that if both the Strait of Hormuz and the Mandeb Strait face restrictions simultaneously, European trade would experience severe disruption, potentially leading to a complete standstill. However, she also noted that while controlling the Mandeb Strait might be tempting for Yemen's Houthi group, they might be reluctant to provoke Saudi Arabia or risk triggering a wider chain of events.
The flow of oil has already been impacted. Iran-backed Houthi forces effectively blockaded the Mandeb Strait during the height of the Israel-Gaza conflict, maintaining the closure until a ceasefire agreement with the United States in May 2025 reopened the passage. Since late March this year, the Houthis have begun launching missiles and drones toward Israel, suggesting a potential intent to engage more directly in the US-Iran-Israel tensions. Former US diplomat Nabeel Khoury assessed that the Houthi missile attacks on Israel represent symbolic participation rather than a full-scale engagement. Khoury emphasized that the Houthis' most potent weapon is the blockade of the Mandeb Strait. Merely firing on a few transiting vessels could deter all commercial shipping from using the Red Sea route. However, crossing this red line would likely prompt swift military retaliation from the United States and Israel against targets in Yemen.
Conversely, a closure of the Mandeb Strait would also challenge Saudi Arabia, which relies on pipeline exports but increasingly transports its oil via the Red Sea port of Yanbu. A disruption at the Mandeb Strait would hinder the flow of Saudi crude to Asian markets. Allison Minor of the Atlantic Council previously noted that with the potential for a Hormuz blockade, Saudi Arabia has grown increasingly dependent on the Red Sea route to maintain its oil exports to Asia. An interruption of the Red Sea route could bring oil flows from the Gulf region to a complete halt within weeks.
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