As the new week begins on October 26, market attention has shifted rapidly toward the Federal Reserve's policy meeting scheduled for October 27-28, with subsequent remarks from the Fed Chair set to directly influence gold price movements.
Beyond the Fed, this week will also feature interest rate decisions from the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and the Bank of Canada, making it a so-called super central bank week.
The Fed's highly anticipated decision is set for early Thursday morning Beijing time (2:00 AM on October 29), and this is the main event that all capital has been waiting for this week.
Markets are overwhelmingly pricing in a hold from the Fed this time, with odds exceeding 80%, but the real suspense lies in the press conference that follows, where Fed Chair Warsh is expected to face intense scrutiny for any hints about whether another rate hike is coming in December.
In the short term, three major pressures are weighing on gold: December rate hike expectations, elevated dollar and Treasury yields, and institutional deleveraging, all of which are capping upside momentum.
In the medium term, however, the bedrock supports of central bank gold purchases and safe-haven demand remain firmly in place, and there are willing buyers below the 4,000 level.
This suggests the current pullback is more likely a high-level washout following an extended rally rather than the end of the trend.
The true direction will likely only become clear after the Fed reveals its hand in the early hours of Thursday. Until then, the market is expected to grind back and forth, sweeping in both directions and punishing anyone who acts too hastily.
From a technical perspective, gold is expected to remain in weak consolidation early in the week, with the 4,020-4,010 zone being the key battleground to watch. A breakout above that level would shift focus to resistance around 4,030, and as long as the price does not clear 4,030, the overall structure remains bearish.
On the downside, the 3,980-3,970 area, which marks the recent low, will be the first zone to watch, and a contest there is inevitable. Whether it breaks is less important than what follows: a break below would open the door to around 3,930, while holding above it would keep prices oscillating between 3,970 and 4,050 as the market waits for the Fed's rate decision to provide direction, which is also a normal pattern of behavior.
In short, this is a super central bank week with the Fed, ECB, and BOJ all meeting, so volatility will only increase. Early in the week, the author advises against chasing shorts, avoiding heavy positions, waiting for rebounds, and watching key levels carefully.
Before the Fed decision early Thursday, light-position trading is acceptable, but do not get carried away. Trading is about steady, long-term gains, not going all-in at once. Wishing everyone a smooth day ahead, and feel free to reach out if conditions change.
For intraday operations, the recommendation is as follows: Gold: go long at 4,003-4,002, stop loss at 3,990, target 4,030-4,050, and hold if broken through. If the price falls below 3,990 again, reverse directly to short, targeting 3,950-3,930. If 4,030 is not broken before the U.S. session, a direct short is also possible, targeting the smaller range.
Key economic data and events to watch today: Monday, October 26, 2026, at 22:30, the U.S. October Dallas Fed Business Activity Index.
Comments