Those who watched US stocks last night (October 22) should have already expected today's (October 23) another low-open adjustment in A-shares.
In such a market, some people liquidate everything with one click, turn around and leave, never paying attention to market matters again.
But others see opportunity, "finding good targets during declines, and buying a little on each dip."
Since the adjustment began in late September, the market has been probing lower all the way, but at the same time, bottom-fishing funds have been continuously increasing their positions. Bottom fishing may happen once, or it may happen many times, but once a rally starts, the phenomenon of recovering several months of losses in just a few days is not unheard of.
Turning Point Signal Emerges During the Session, Multiple Stocks Hit Limit Up
Panic is followed by greed, and extremes mark turning points — this was vividly demonstrated once again on October 23.
On October 23, A-shares opened with a gap down again before the previous gap was filled. The Shanghai Composite Index briefly broke through the 3,600-point integer mark in early trading, then strongly pulled back. The ChiNext Index fell more than 3% at one point, but around 10:29 AM, a strong stabilization and rebound emerged.
Overnight, multiple large US tech stocks adjusted, with LUMENTUM dropping over 10%, and SpaceX, SanDisk, Corning and others all falling more than 8%, which had a significant impact on today's A-share sentiment.
Behind this, one data point drew market attention: US initial jobless claims for the week ending October 17 came in at 194,000, a three-month low. The market interpreted this resilient data as reinforcing expectations for the Federal Reserve's tightening policy.
The next focal point is the Fed's monetary policy meeting on October 27-28.
On one side is systemic pressure on the market, with indices continuously adjusting unilaterally downward — for example, the ChiNext Index had cumulatively fallen 41.06% from June 26, 2026 to October 22, 2026.
On the other side are structural opportunities in individual stocks. Although the market kept probing lower, major players or institutions have been positioning against the trend all along.
On October 23, a host of individual stocks launched strong rebounds, serving as sentiment pioneers. They are distributed among recently listed stocks, brokerages, and some industry leaders.
For example, recently listed stock Yuexin Semiconductor-U surged from a decline of nearly 4% to a "20cm" limit up; around 10:23 AM, a super major player with over 100 million yuan entered Hualin Securities, driving it straight to a "10cm" limit up. It has repeatedly surged against the market recently, such as limit ups on September 1 and October 15.
Observing recent dragon-tiger board institutional seats, institutions have been continuously adding positions.
Humanoid robot concept stock Anpeilong rose for 5 consecutive days from October 16 to October 22, with a cumulative gain of nearly 40% during the period, with continuous volume expansion and completion of a low-level breakout. The dragon-tiger board trading on October 22 showed that among the top 5 buying seats, 3 were institutional seats, all net buyers. The No. 1 institutional seat had a net buy of 92.26 million yuan, with no selling amount.
Semiconductor sentiment stock Yunhan Xincheng rose nearly 18% at one point on October 23, after gaining 16.16% on October 22. The dragon-tiger board trading that day showed 2 institutional seats on the list, with net buying amounts of 18.5952 million yuan and 14.9855 million yuan respectively, also with no selling amount (see Table 1).
Beyond Anpeilong and Yunhan Xincheng, many other stocks have launched oversold rebound rallies. Using October 15 as the dividing point, some stocks continued to decline from July 1 to October 15, then launched rebounds from October 16 to October 22 (see Table 2).
Of course, a realistic question still lies before us: has the market hit bottom? If it continues to fall, leaving now means "possibly losing less in the future." But once it reverses, leaving now might mean "selling at the floor."
Major Tops and Major Bottoms
This round of cyclical major adjustment that began in July has seen indices continuously decline amid bullish and bearish views. Some repeatedly say "the bottom is here, the bottom is not far away," while others say the downward cycle is not yet over.
The reasons behind this A-share adjustment are complex, with internal valuation and external factors coexisting. Perhaps no one can give a definitive answer on when the adjustment will end, because the factors affecting the market are constantly changing.
From the perspective of space and time, the market itself has certain cyclical patterns. Next, by reviewing history, perhaps some answers can be found. History cannot guide the future, but it can provide reference. From the ChiNext perspective, opportunities and risks are clearly visible in several major tops and bottoms in history.
ChiNext's doubling main rally. On December 4, 2012, ChiNext started from 585.44 points, then embarked on its first main rally, rising 162.54% cumulatively to 1,558.62 points by February 17, 2014. After that, following nearly half a year of high-level adjustment, it fell 18.40% from February 18, 2014 to July 24, 2014. But then it launched again, surging 213.10% cumulatively from July 25, 2014 to June 3, 2015.
Sharp decline consolidation after overextension and technical repair after rapid decline. From June 4, 2015 to September 15, 2015, ChiNext rapidly retreated from its previous bull market high, falling 54.86% during the period. Then, a technical repair after the rapid decline was triggered, with the rebound from September 16, 2015 to November 25, 2015 gaining over 60% cumulatively.
Short-term technical rebound within a major cyclical decline. From November 30, 2021 to April 26, 2022, ChiNext fell 38.62%, then rebounded 32.08% from April 27, 2022 to June 28, 2024. But afterward it returned to decline, falling nearly 60% from November 30, 2021 to September 23, 2024 (see attached chart).
This adjustment cycle was relatively long and more typical. Behind it, suppressing factors were related to multiple elements including Fed rate hikes and capacity clearance in the new energy sector.
As can be seen from the attached chart, ChiNext's rebound from April 27, 2022 to June 28, 2024 was merely a capital replenishment during a decline. This type of rally is mainly sentiment repair, not the starting point of a new major rally. Some may mistake it for a bull market restart, but ultimately find themselves increasingly passive in the more protracted decline after the rebound.
Afterward, the "9·24" rally was launched in 2024, and before that, ChiNext had experienced 2 more long-cycle bottom probes. From September 24, 2024 to June 25, 2026, ChiNext rose 185.66% cumulatively. But from June 26, 2026 to now, it has fallen nearly 40%.
Is a technical oversold rebound approaching? From ChiNext's several bottom rallies, some space has been reached, but time has not, thus entering a lengthy bottom-grinding or bottom-probing period. In this round of adjustment, the decline was rapidly delivered in a short time. Have both "space" and "time" reached market expectations? Perhaps only the market can give the answer.
In conclusion, trauma often accompanies the market. Looking back, it may have always been there — not that it no longer hurts, but that your endurance has grown stronger. And the strong ones always slowly turn "unable to endure" into "able to endure."
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