On July 15th, gold prices staged a rebound. The Asian session opened with a steady climb, hovering after reaching around 4030 before a surge during the US session pushed the price directly to the 4100 mark. However, the momentum failed to sustain, and a significant portion of the gains were subsequently relinquished. The price ultimately settled at $4050, closing the day with a small bullish candle.
Wednesday, July 15th - The biggest news overnight was undoubtedly the US June CPI data, which came in below expectations across the board. The year-on-year CPI for June rose by 3.5%, against an expectation of 3.8% and following a 5.2% reading in May. This marked the first negative month-on-month growth in six years! Following the data release, traders scaled back bets on a July interest rate hike. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note fell by approximately 4.5 basis points to 4.581%, which in turn fueled a sharp rise in gold.
Additionally, Federal Reserve Chair Wash's inaugural congressional testimony did not "add fuel to the fire" as the market had feared. He did not explicitly state "we will raise rates," nor did he dismiss the positive implications of the CPI data. Tonight's key events are the US June PPI data (reflecting business-side costs) at 20:30 and Chair Wash's Senate hearing at 22:00. If the PPI remains firm or if officials strike a hawkish tone, today's rebound could be erased. Conversely, if the data continues to show weakness, gold would have the momentum to test the 4100 level again.
From a technical perspective, gold is expected to continue with weak, range-bound trading in the near term. After the price fell back below the 4050 level on the hourly chart's moving average band, the short-term trend has become more erratic. Immediate resistance can be observed around 4050, with main resistance levels at 4070 and 4100. Support lies around 4020, though a break below this level is highly likely, with further downside testing expected in the 4010-4000 zone. If the price remains consistently below 4030, gold will undoubtedly revert to a weaker trend.
In summary, cooling US CPI data rescued gold from the 3983 level, but pressures from Middle East oil prices and potential Fed hawkishness are capping gains near 4100. The overall outlook for today is a wide-range oscillation between 3980 and 4100. Neither bulls nor bears have established a clear trend reversal or continuation; the market is likely to experience repeated whipsaws within this range. At the intermediate 4050 level, it is better to miss an opportunity than to make a mistake. Patience is advised, waiting for clearer signals at the boundaries (below 4000 or above 4090) before taking action.
Therefore, the intraday trading suggestion is as follows:
Gold: Operate within the 4010-4190 range. Set a stop-loss of $10 and a take-profit target of 60-70 points.
Key financial data and events to watch today, Wednesday, July 15th:
20:30 US June PPI Year-on-Year
20:30 US June PPI Month-on-Month
20:30 US July New York Fed Manufacturing Index
20:45 Fed's Williams delivers speech
22:00 Fed Chair Wash attends hearing
01:00 (next day) Fed Governor Cook speaks on economic outlook
02:00 (next day) Fed releases Beige Book on economic conditions
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