Abstract
Take-Two Interactive will report fiscal third-quarter results on February 03, 2026 (Post Market), with consensus pointing to year-over-year growth in revenue and earnings per share and investor attention concentrated on holiday-season engagement, live-services monetization, and operating-expense discipline.Market Forecast
The market currently expects Take-Two Interactive to deliver revenue of $1.59 billion for the fiscal third quarter, an increase of 14.94% year over year, alongside estimated EPS of $0.83, up 46.53% year over year, and estimated EBIT of $0.21 billion, up 43.04% year over year. Forecasts do not specify gross margin or net margin for the quarter, but the EPS and revenue trajectory suggest a favorable mix of live-services engagement and holiday-season sell-through.Main business performance remains anchored by a balanced mix across mobile, console, and PC/other, with holiday user engagement and recurrent spending expected to carry the quarter’s momentum. Console and PC live services appear to be the most promising near-term growth lever: last quarter, console revenue was $0.72 billion, which, coupled with seasonal user activity, points to continued resilience in engagement-heavy franchises.
Last Quarter Review
In the most recent fiscal quarter, Take-Two Interactive reported revenue of $1.96 billion, up 32.92% year over year, a gross profit margin of 55.30%, a GAAP net loss attributable to shareholders of $0.13 billion with a net profit margin of -7.55%, and adjusted EPS of $1.47, up 122.73% year over year.A key financial highlight was top-line outperformance versus internal estimates, with revenue exceeding expectations by $0.24 billion, while the sequential swing in GAAP profitability underscored the gap between GAAP and adjusted performance metrics. In terms of the main business mix, mobile contributed $0.82 billion, console $0.72 billion, and PC and other $0.23 billion, with diversified revenue streams underpinning both bookings and recognized revenue through the quarter.
Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)
Console and PC Live Services and Content Mix
The fiscal third quarter spans the core holiday season, a period that typically supports strong sell-through and engagement across key console and PC franchises. Market expectations for revenue of $1.59 billion and EPS of $0.83 imply a meaningful contribution from recurrent consumer spending in flagship series and broader catalog performance. This dynamic generally favors digital add-on content and online services, which tend to carry higher gross-margin characteristics than packaged sales.Live services are poised to remain central to the quarter’s earnings profile. Engagement-driven monetization in sports and open-world franchises can provide a steadier revenue cadence through the holiday period, translating into a healthier revenue-to-earnings conversion as players participate in seasonal events and microtransactions. The forecasted year-over-year uplift in EBIT of 43.04% to $0.21 billion indicates expectations for operating leverage on top of revenue growth, reflecting both scale benefits in digital delivery and expense discipline.
A critical factor for this quarter is the mix between full-game sales and recurrent consumer spending. The balance between these revenue streams can influence both gross margin and working-capital dynamics, especially where bookings convert into recognized revenue. While the market lacks explicit gross-margin guidance for the quarter, the combination of holiday engagement and ongoing uptake in add-ons suggests a supportive backdrop for margins compared with non-holiday quarters. Investors will also be attentive to commentary on catalog performance and the cadence of updates that sustain post-launch monetization.
Mobile and Advertising Platform
Mobile remained Take-Two Interactive’s largest revenue stream last quarter at $0.82 billion, setting the baseline for this quarter’s expectations around bookings and ad monetization. The holiday period often brings elevated in-app engagement and advertising demand, which can benefit both in-app purchase revenue and ad-driven monetization, subject to user acquisition discipline and platform optimization. Forecasted EPS growth of 46.53% year over year suggests that management and the broader market anticipate a constructive monetization environment in mobile alongside the console and PC uplift.The key variables in mobile this quarter are user acquisition efficiency and the balance between in-app purchases and advertising. A tighter approach to acquisition spend can enhance contribution margin even if top-line growth remains moderate, while improvements in ad load, pricing, or format mix can augment monetization without meaningfully impacting user experience. With digital scale already established, efficiency gains can translate quickly into improved profitability when engagement accelerates during the holidays.
Investors will be watching for signals on advertising trends, particularly whether demand holds through late-quarter periods and whether any pockets of softness emerge in specific geographies or categories. The EBIT estimate of $0.21 billion implies that management and analysts expect the revenue mix to support operating leverage, which can be further reinforced if mobile monetization remains stable or improves. Updates on integration, toolsets, or network effects across mobile properties will be relevant for assessing the breadth and sustainability of margin expansion.
Key Stock Price Drivers and Watch Items
Three elements appear most likely to influence Take-Two Interactive’s share price around this print: the revenue mix and bookings-to-revenue conversion, operating expense run-rate and margin trajectory, and management’s qualitative commentary on engagement trends and forward pipeline timing. The $1.59 billion revenue estimate points to mid-teens percentage growth, a pace that often coincides with meaningful engagement strength and catalog contribution during the holiday window. The degree to which these bookings translate to recognized revenue within the quarter—and the implied gross margin mix—can shape near-term earnings outcomes.Margin commentary will be closely parsed after the prior quarter’s combined picture of a 55.30% gross margin and a GAAP net loss, which contrasted sharply with an adjusted EPS of $1.47. This highlights the importance of understanding the drivers behind GAAP-to-non-GAAP differences and the persistence of those drivers. If operating expenses show disciplined growth relative to revenue and if revenue mix tilts toward higher-contribution digital channels, the path toward sustaining the forecasted EPS of $0.83 becomes clearer, even in the absence of explicit gross-margin guidance.
Finally, qualitative disclosures—such as the health of recurrent consumer spending, the pace of catalog and live-services updates through the holiday season, and any timing color around upcoming titles—can shape sentiment beyond the quarter’s headline results. While near-term numbers matter, investors will be focused on the sustainability of mid-teens top-line growth and the potential for further operating leverage as live services and mobile scale. Any commentary that clarifies engagement stickiness or outlines expense discipline into the remainder of the fiscal year could meaningfully influence the stock’s reaction.
Analyst Opinions
Among institutional views compiled within the relevant window, bullish opinions constitute 100.00% of the sample, with no bearish calls identified. TD Cowen’s Doug Creutz reiterated a Buy rating with a $284.00 price target, and Benchmark’s Mike Hickey maintained a Buy rating with a $300.00 target, reflecting confidence in the company’s ability to convert engagement and bookings into accelerating earnings. These calls align with the consensus outlook for the fiscal third quarter, which anticipates revenue of $1.59 billion and EPS of $0.83, with EBIT of $0.21 billion, implying operating leverage alongside top-line growth.The bullish stance emphasizes the combination of holiday-season strength and ongoing live-services monetization as a solid backdrop for the quarter. In this framework, incremental engagement in online ecosystems and continued digital adoption support the earnings trajectory, which is reflected in the forecasted EPS growth of 46.53% year over year. The expected revenue increase of 14.94% year over year also suggests durable demand across platforms, which can benefit from both catalog depth and seasonal promotions that enhance player activity.
Analysts favor the prospect that stable or improving mobile monetization—coupled with console and PC live services—can sustain a healthier profit profile even as GAAP and adjusted metrics may differ due to accounting treatment and non-cash items. The prior quarter’s revenue outperformance of $0.24 billion highlighted robust demand, and the consensus implies that this momentum carries into the holiday quarter. Against this setup, the bullish majority expects management’s commentary on engagement trends, revenue mix, and expense discipline to reinforce the potential for further operating leverage through the current fiscal year.
In summary, the prevailing institutional perspective is constructive heading into the February 03, 2026 report. The combination of expected mid-teens revenue growth, near-50% EPS growth, and improved EBIT supports the case that holiday engagement and live-services monetization can deliver a solid quarter. Should management’s commentary signal healthy recurrent consumer spending and controlled opex, the majority view anticipates that the company can meet or exceed the consensus framework and underpin positive sentiment into subsequent quarters.
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