Market Highlights and Key Data
Futures Market: On December 3, 2025, the main Shanghai copper futures contract opened at 89,100 yuan/ton and closed at 89,210 yuan/ton, up 0.33% from the previous trading day. During the night session, the contract opened at 90,070 yuan/ton and closed at 90,760 yuan/ton, marking a 2.01% increase from the afternoon session.
Spot Market: According to SMM, spot electrolytic copper premiums yesterday ranged from 40–240 yuan/ton, averaging 140 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous day. The price range for #1 electrolytic copper was 88,730–89,230 yuan/ton. The main Shanghai copper contract fluctuated between 88,700–89,000 yuan in early trading before surging to around 89,150 yuan near midday. Market sentiment improved, but tight supply in Shanghai continued to support high spot premiums. Early trading saw limited supplies at a 20 yuan premium quickly absorbed, while mainstream transactions for standard-grade copper settled at premiums of 80–130 yuan. In Changzhou, premiums remained around 60 yuan despite price pressure. High-grade copper, such as Jintun and Jinchuan, saw premiums at 200 yuan and 280–300 yuan, respectively, due to persistent supply constraints. The inter-month spread held at a C80–C40 structure, with import losses widening to nearly 1,500 yuan. Spot premiums are expected to remain firm, though actual trading conditions require further observation.
Key Macro and Industry Updates: - **Employment Data**: ADP reported a decline of 32,000 private-sector jobs in November, the largest drop since March 2023 and the second-largest since early 2020. - **Economic Indicators**: The U.S. ISM Services PMI rose to 52.6 in November, a nine-month high, exceeding expectations of 52.1. However, new orders slowed from a yearly peak, and input prices hit a seven-month low. - **Trade Policy**: U.S. Treasury Secretary expressed confidence that the Supreme Court would uphold tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Meanwhile, nine Japanese firms filed lawsuits seeking tariff refunds.
**Mining Sector**: Glencore CEO Gary Nagle announced plans to restart the Alumbrera project by Q4 2026, targeting initial production in H1 2028. At full capacity, the project is expected to yield 75,000 tons of copper, 317,000 ounces of gold, and 1,000 tons of molybdenum annually over four years. The restart will also support the MARA Holdings project. Glencore aims to boost annual copper output to 1.6 million tons within a decade, reversing its recent decline.
**Smelting and Imports**: Chile’s November copper exports totaled 124,422 tons, with 29,112 tons shipped to China. Copper ore and concentrate exports reached 1,054,487 tons, including 716,614 tons to China. COMEX premiums remain elevated, while LME and Shanghai copper inventories stay low, warranting caution over potential short squeezes.
**Demand Outlook**: During China’s 15th Five-Year Plan period, copper demand will vary across sectors. Power infrastructure (wind, solar, storage) is projected to drive consumption beyond 8 million tons by 2030. Construction demand will stabilize around 1.58 million tons annually, while transportation (EVs, charging networks) may exceed 2.4 million tons. Electronics, led by AI servers and high-end PCBs, could surpass 2 million tons. However, 2026 may see only modest growth due to a temporary dip in solar demand and weak real estate activity.
**Inventory Data**: LME warehouse stocks rose by 2,375 tons to 162,150 tons, while SHFE stocks fell by 1,599 tons to 28,969 tons. Domestic spot inventories dropped by 14,500 tons to 159,000 tons as of December 1.
**Strategy**: Cautiously bullish. Recent CSPT-led production cuts initially lifted prices, but potential smelting reductions in 2026 could ease ore supply tightness. The resumption of Kamoa’s smelter may pressure raw material supplies, reinforcing an upward bias. Investors are advised to buy on dips for hedging.
**Risks**: - Rapid decline in domestic demand or inventory buildup. - Overseas liquidity shocks.
Disclaimer: This report is based on publicly available information deemed reliable but not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. Views are subject to change without notice.
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