日本干预、“美联储通讯社”放风！上周五同一天发生，只是一个巧合？

华尔街见闻2022-10-25

有分析指出，白宫、日本央行双双“求助”美联储，前者需要货币宽松预期提振股市，赢得关键选民支持，后者面对本币贬值危机，急需美联储提供切实帮助。通常情况下，想要将看似毫不相关的各国经济行动串联起来，宏观面分析往往是有效工具，正如今年被广泛交易的全球衰退主线。然而当数个重大行动都巧妙地在同一天发生，这背后很可能出现了某种不为人知的“神秘”事件。上周五就是很好的体现。高盛和业内知名投资研究人士纷纷表示，...

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勇攀珠峰
2022-10-26
勇攀珠峰
白宮還要求美聯儲，真沒出息
康康的
2022-10-25
康康的
好
Jack2862
2022-10-25
Jack2862
Ggg

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It happened on the same day last Friday, just a coincidence?","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/098ac84fd9443927276ca795d418a4ec","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9},"content_text":"有分析指出，白宫、日本央行双双“求助”美联储，前者需要货币宽松预期提振股市，赢得关键选民支持，后者面对本币贬值危机，急需美联储提供切实帮助。通常情况下，想要将看似毫不相关的各国经济行动串联起来，宏观面分析往往是有效工具，正如今年被广泛交易的全球衰退主线。然而当数个重大行动都巧妙地在同一天发生，这背后很可能出现了某种不为人知的“神秘”事件。上周五就是很好的体现。高盛和业内知名投资研究人士纷纷表示，若干方面可能在上周五采取了“密切合作”，共同撼动市场走势。10月21日，有“新美联储通讯社（Fedwire）”之称的华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos率先发力，一改过去五周为美联储激进加息提前“放风”的姿态，发表重磅文章驳斥过度的加息预期，并暗示美联储可能考虑缩小12月加息幅度。而一个小时后，在干预汇市方面“有心无力”的日本央行采取史上最大规模干预行动，效果显著，推动日元汇率在一小时内上冲3%，直接从151.94飙升至144.50。之后美联储更是亲自出动，在6个月内加息超过300基点后首度派出高官高声放鸽，旧金山联储主席戴利表示，现在是时候开始谈论放慢加息的速度了，“不要认为永远都是加75个基点。”10月22日，美债跌势暂歇，美股反弹并创四个月来最大周涨幅，三大美股指均涨超2%。“美联储、白宫、华尔街日报和日本央行都在进行密切合作”对此高盛交易员Matt Fleury提出了一个问题，即各国央行是否进行了协调行动，共同支持市场？《熊市陷阱报告》（Bear Traps Report）作者、致力于投资研究的Larry McDonald回答道：我们相信，在上周五上午，美联储、白宫、华尔街日报和日本央行都在进行密切合作。McDonald表示：美联储收到了来自白宫最高层的警告：白宫官员在上周敲开了美联储主席鲍威尔的门。白宫没能成功让OPEC+（增产）来降低油价，达到控制通胀的效果。现在从政治角度来说，标普500指数必须在11月8日（中期选举）这一关键日期前走高。城市郊区（选民支持率）将成为中期选举的决胜关键，在那里401K养老金计划甚至比油价更重要（美国家庭的大部分养老金都在股市里）。确实，在沙特不顾美国反对，在象征性增产之后不久便实施两年来最大力度减产，直接给予拜登政府迎头痛击，令白宫希望通过控制能源价格来抑制通胀高烧的计划被迫搁浅，双方开启骂战。并且从目前来看，在拜登任期内，沙特方面的强硬态度似乎也难以出现缓和，毕竟媒体援引沙特政府内部人士透露，沙特王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼曾私下嘲笑拜登，取笑他此前的失态，甚至都开始怀疑他的精神状态。此外有关日本方面行动，McDonald提及：日本央行在经历数周前汇市干预失败之后，希望能够获得美联储的支持。我们认为日本方面致电了主席鲍威尔，寻求切实的重要支持。效果如何？从“联合行动”之后的外界反映来看，效果较为显著。目前利率期货市场数据显示，投资者押注美联储在12月再次加息75个基点的概率从65%—70%骤降至25%—30%，此前预期明年2月加息50基点的概率也从50%下降至25%—30%。当然值得注意的是，日本方面似乎距离理想结果尚有距离。虽然上周五的大规模干预行动刺激日元强势上冲，但是在本周一晚间，当日本央行希望“如法炮制”，再度利用当日交易量较低时段购买日元并扩大上周五的干预力度，却没能控制日元颓势。入场仅十五分钟后，日元走势开始下行，在美国交易时段结束时，日元汇率已回吐当日全部涨幅，并抹掉了上周五50%的“胜果”。针对近期美联储行动，McDonald还总结道：美联储手中只有很弱的牌，但他们想让外界相信自己口袋中有王牌。（虽然）现在还不是开香槟庆祝的时候，但是鲍威尔领导的美联储将采取温和政策的可能性正在急剧增加。这种立场将有利于贵金属、价值股和新兴市场（资产）。在过去一年里，金属与采矿指数ETF涨幅达到10%，而纳斯达克100指数下跌了26%，大迁移正在进行中。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":662451778,"gmtCreate":1666713793698,"gmtModify":1676537794731,"author":{"id":"3567090667631685","authorId":"3567090667631685","name":"勇攀珠峰","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3567090667631685","authorIdStr":"3567090667631685"},"htmlText":"白宮還要求美聯儲，真沒出息","listText":"白宮還要求美聯儲，真沒出息","text":"白宮還要求美聯儲，真沒出息","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/662451778","repostId":1152068817,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9988891213,"gmtCreate":1666710720832,"gmtModify":1676537794128,"author":{"id":"3587038191942835","authorId":"3587038191942835","name":"康康的","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a7001836b41194d4d68114ab8afcfd","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3587038191942835","authorIdStr":"3587038191942835"},"htmlText":"好","listText":"好","text":"好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9988891213","repostId":1152068817,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9988119468,"gmtCreate":1666691297156,"gmtModify":1676537790488,"author":{"id":"4099483369818900","authorId":"4099483369818900","name":"Jack2862","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bcc0628ed2b106be207097f3afcacb0d","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4099483369818900","authorIdStr":"4099483369818900"},"htmlText":"Ggg","listText":"Ggg","text":"Ggg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9988119468","repostId":1152068817,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":66,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":7,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1152068817"}