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A positive catalyst for AI has arrived. ASML Holding NV (ASML) saw its orders hit a record high, leading to a sharp surge in its stock price. On January 28th, before the market opened, the stock price of lithography machine giant ASML skyrocketed, at one point surging by approximately 9%!
The surge is driven by ASML's latest earnings report, which showed order value significantly exceeding market expectations, while the sales guidance provided for 2026 also surpassed analyst forecasts. As one of the most closely watched metrics by investors, ASML's new orders for the fourth quarter of 2025 reached 13.2 billion euros (approximately $15.8 billion), substantially higher than the analyst consensus estimate of 6.32 billion euros. ASML's Chief Financial Officer, Roger Dassen, stated that this was a "record quarter" for the company's orders. ASML also announced a new share buyback program totaling 12 billion euros, with an execution period running until December 31, 2028. The company forecasts net sales for the current quarter to be between 8.2 billion and 8.9 billion euros; full-year 2026 sales are projected to be in the range of 34 billion to 39 billion euros, with the midpoint of this range exceeding the analyst consensus estimate of 35.1 billion euros. The company had previously indicated that it did not expect full-year 2026 net sales to be lower than those in 2025. This latest guidance implies that ASML anticipates at least approximately 20% revenue growth compared to 2024 and also signals a more optimistic outlook for 2026 than before—previously, the market had considered the possibility of revenue growth in 2026 to be uncertain. Additionally, ASML announced plans for workforce reductions, resulting in a net decrease of about 1,700 positions, primarily in the Netherlands, with a smaller number in the United States. As a manufacturer of essential equipment for producing the world's most advanced chips, ASML is benefiting from tailwinds including the AI infrastructure investment boom, with its stock price having accumulated a gain of nearly 30% year-to-date. Concurrently, a shortage of memory chips is driving a rare surge in prices for these components, with some industry insiders anticipating that tight supply and demand conditions could persist until 2027. Analysts predict that major global memory manufacturers, including Samsung and SK Hynix, will ramp up production capacity over the next year or two, meaning they will purchase more equipment from ASML. For instance, a Barclays report this month projected that SK Hynix will procure 12 extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines in 2026. ASML also indicated that revenue from its most advanced equipment, including EUV lithography machines, will see "significant growth" in 2026 compared to last year, as chipmakers expand capacity for more advanced semiconductors.
SK Hynix reported a massive surge in profits. On January 28th, SK Hynix delivered its strongest quarterly performance to date, highlighting the intensity of the AI wave—which is triggering an unprecedented surge in demand for memory chips. In the quarter ended last December, the company's operating profit more than doubled year-over-year to 19.2 trillion won (approximately $13.5 billion), surpassing the average analyst estimate of 16.7 trillion won; revenue climbed to 32.8 trillion won. Its South Korean stock price rose over 6% in after-hours trading. Historically, the memory industry has been known for its severe boom-and-bust cycles; now, however, the business is generating more "stable and sustained" levels of profitability—a change that was almost unimaginable a few years ago and is also boosting valuations across the sector. As a leading supplier of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) required for NVIDIA's (NVDA) AI accelerators, SK Hynix's stock price has increased approximately threefold since the beginning of last September. SK Hynix also disclosed plans to cancel about $8.6 billion worth of shares from its treasury stock next month, as part of efforts to enhance shareholder returns. Furthermore, the company reiterated that it is considering a US listing but has not yet made a final decision. SK Hynix's robust performance reflects strong market demand for HBM3E, the most advanced version currently available, which is widely adopted by NVIDIA and major cloud service providers. According to South Korean media reports, SK Hynix is also the exclusive supplier of HBM3E for Microsoft's self-developed AI accelerator, Maia 200. Currently, both major South Korean chip giants are vying for certification to supply the next-generation HBM4 to the world's highest-valued company (referring to NVIDIA). This shift towards high-end AI chips is "crowding out" capacity for traditional memory production. The resulting widening gap in supply for DRAM and NAND flash memory is granting manufacturers like SK Hynix significant pricing power. Some analysts suggest that the current memory shortage is likely to persist for some time, partly due to robust demand for the next-generation HBM, which consumes more wafer capacity, while supply remains tight. Influenced by the related news, US-listed memory stocks saw broad gains in pre-market trading. Seagate Technology rose nearly 10%, Western Digital climbed nearly 8%, SanDisk advanced nearly 5%, and Micron Technology gained over 4%.
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