Gold prices are cooling down, and banks are loosening restrictions. Following a sharp rise and significant volatility at the beginning of the year, international gold prices have recently entered a phase of fluctuating decline. Wind data shows that international gold prices have fallen consecutively, dropping below $4500 per ounce; the price of AU9999 on the Shanghai Gold Exchange has also declined to around 982 yuan per gram. As market volatility narrows, several banks have recently adjusted their gold accumulation services: some have lowered the product risk ratings, others have extended trading hours, and some have introduced fee discount promotions. Banks, which had previously tightened access due to intense gold price fluctuations, are now reopening the doors to gold investment. Industry insiders believe that the shift from tightening to loosening in bank gold accumulation services reflects, to some extent, a growing consensus among banks regarding a higher central price level for gold. However, the easing of business restrictions by banks does not mean that the risks associated with gold investment have disappeared. Looking ahead, the situation in the Middle East, the Federal Reserve's interest rate path, and global inflation expectations remain key variables influencing gold price fluctuations. Multiple Banks Ease Gold Investment Restrictions On May 25, China Construction Bank released a new version of the customer rights notice and risk disclosure document for its personal gold accumulation business, adjusting the names of the product risk levels and customer risk tolerance levels. Among these, the risk level for the personal gold accumulation business remains unchanged at R4, but its designation has been changed from "relatively high risk" to "medium-high risk." The adjustment by Industrial and Commercial Bank of China has drawn more market attention. On May 12, ICBC announced that, effective May 19, the product risk level for its Ruyi Gold Accumulation business would be adjusted from R3 (medium risk) to R2 (medium-low risk), correspondingly requiring customers to have a risk tolerance level of C2 (conservative) or above. This adjustment comes only about four months after ICBC tightened access at the beginning of this year. At that time, international gold prices surged rapidly with high volatility, prompting several banks to issue concentrated risk warnings and control risk exposure by raising minimum purchase amounts, increasing risk levels, and restricting trading permissions for some customers. Now, as gold prices retreat and volatility subsides temporarily, banks' stance on gold accumulation services is changing once again. Beyond risk level adjustments, several banks are also focusing on improving trading convenience and reducing costs. Industrial Bank, in collaboration with JD.com's Jin Yue (Xiamen) Digital Technology Co., Ltd., launched a gold accumulation distribution service in April this year. Starting May 8, it extended the trading hours on its mobile banking and online banking channels from the previous cutoff of 11 PM to 2 AM the following day. China Construction Bank, China Merchants Bank, Bank of Jiangsu, and China Minsheng Bank have also successively launched night trading services to cover active periods in the international gold market. Fee discount promotions are also increasing concurrently. China CITIC Bank introduced a 50% discount on handling fees for gold accumulation fixed investments, with the promotion lasting until June 30. Bank of China launched a "Friday Theme Day Promotion" in the first half of the year, offering customers a 1 yuan per gram reduction in handling fees for gold accumulation purchases or fixed investments made on Fridays. China Everbright Bank recently also launched a gold accumulation fixed investment promotion, attracting new customers through methods like WeChat instant discount vouchers. Gold Returns to Asset Allocation Logic In the industry's view, the recent series of actions by banks are not merely marketing tactics but rather business adjustments following a shift in the logic of gold asset allocation. This year, international gold prices have experienced a typical rollercoaster ride. At the end of January, driven by safe-haven demand, sustained central bank gold purchases globally, and market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, international gold prices once hit a record high. Subsequently, however, as U.S. inflation showed signs of resurgence, the market began pricing in a "higher-for-longer" interest rate narrative, and geopolitical tensions fluctuated, gold prices entered a phase of correction from high levels. Wind data shows that from March to May, international gold prices fell by 11.54%, 1.02%, and 2.93% respectively, compressing the year-to-date gain to 3.88%. The price of AU9999 on the Shanghai Gold Exchange also retreated to 982.53 yuan per gram, with its year-to-date increase narrowing to less than 1%. However, compared to the previous sharp rises and falls, recent gold price volatility has narrowed somewhat. Some market participants believe this provides a window for banks to ease access to gold accumulation services again. Lou Feipeng, a researcher at China Postal Savings Bank, stated that the shift from tightening to loosening in bank gold accumulation services reflects, to some extent, a growing consensus among banks regarding a higher central price level for gold. On one hand, sustained gold purchases by global central banks provide a floor for gold prices; on the other hand, the medium-to-long-term bullish logic has largely been realized. Against this backdrop, banks moderately expanding their coverage of retail customers still presents a relatively controllable overall risk-reward ratio. "Lowering the entry threshold makes it easier for small investors to participate in gold fixed investments; fee discounts help reduce holding costs; and extending trading hours improves operational flexibility," Lou Feipeng noted. This signifies that retail gold investment is moving further towards "inclusivity," allowing residents to achieve small-scale, phased allocation with a lower barrier to entry. In fact, against the backdrop of a persistent low-interest-rate environment and intensifying "asset shortage," gold is once again becoming an important allocation tool within banks' wealth management systems. A retail banking executive at a joint-stock bank indicated that over the past few years, overall returns on bank wealth management products have declined, the attractiveness of traditional deposits has waned, and volatility in equity markets has heightened risk aversion among residents. In this context, gold, which combines safe-haven attributes and inflation-hedging logic, is attracting increasing investor attention. "Consequently, gold accumulation services have become an important tool for bank retail wealth management. Compared to one-time purchases of physical gold, gold accumulation features 'small fixed investments, long-term accumulation, and convenient trading,' making it more suitable for ordinary residents to participate," the executive said. At the same time, banks also hope to enhance customer loyalty through gold accumulation services, preventing funds from flowing entirely to gold ETFs, internet gold platforms, or brokerage channels. Risk Warnings Persist Behind Banks' "Loosening" However, banks' renewed easing of restrictions on gold accumulation services does not mean that gold investment risks have disappeared. Recently, while optimizing their services, several banks have continued to strengthen risk warnings. China Construction Bank's new risk disclosure document explicitly warns that gold prices are influenced by multiple factors including international politics, economics, and market supply and demand, and are subject to significant volatility risks. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China also emphasizes that investors should participate prudently based on their own risk tolerance. In the view of industry insiders, this reflects banks' underlying concern about the risks of "chasing rallies and selling on declines." Lou Feipeng pointed out that against the backdrop of high and volatile gold prices, new retail investors entering the market are more susceptible to emotional drivers. If gold prices experience a significant subsequent pullback, investor losses could lead to complaints or even reputational risks. Therefore, while lowering entry barriers, banks still need to strengthen suitability assessments and risk disclosure for investors. Regarding whether "it's still a good time to buy gold," market views have clearly diverged. The Commodities Group of CICC Research Department analysis suggests that in the short term, if the U.S.-Iran geopolitical situation remains difficult to ease and international oil prices stay high, it cannot be ruled out that inflation expectations may rise again, prompting the market to reprice expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes. If the market further prices in 50 to 75 basis points of potential rate hikes, the bottom for gold prices could shift down to the range of $4300 to $4400 per ounce. However, from a medium-to-long-term perspective, demand for gold has not completely vanished. Whether it's safe-haven demand returning after a de-escalation of geopolitical conflicts, or supply shocks triggering an economic slowdown and thereby giving rise to new safe-haven trades, these factors could all drive a recovery in cyclical investment demand for gold. Qu Rui, an analyst at Dongfang Jincheng, stated that the situation in the Middle East remains an important variable currently affecting gold price fluctuations. Recently, U.S. President Trump indicated that negotiations between the U.S. and Iran regarding extending the ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz are "progressing smoothly." If an agreement materializes subsequently, pressure on energy supply could ease, and market concerns about inflation and further Federal Reserve rate hikes might also cool down, potentially leading to a rebound in gold prices. However, Qu Rui also noted that fundamental differences remain between the U.S. and Iran on core issues such as the nuclear problem, and significant uncertainty persists regarding whether a final agreement can be reached. Furthermore, market expectations that the Federal Reserve may "not cut rates or even resume rate hikes" within the year are still intensifying, which will continue to weigh on gold price performance. For ordinary investors, gold may still possess long-term allocation value, but short-term volatility risks should not be ignored. Industry insiders generally recommend avoiding viewing gold as a "guaranteed profit" asset and caution against blindly chasing rallies when market sentiment is high. Compared to making a one-time, heavy investment, adopting a fixed investment approach for long-term, small-scale allocation might still be a relatively prudent participation path in the current environment.
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