Will Prices Drop Further? Fuel Costs See Largest Single Reduction This Year

China's domestic refined oil product pricing window is scheduled to open at 24:00 on July 3rd, according to information from the National Development and Reform Commission.

Monitoring by the NDRC's Price Monitoring Center indicates that international oil prices fluctuated and declined during this pricing cycle, which ran from 24:00 on June 18th to 24:00 on July 3rd.

Effective from 24:00 on July 3rd, it is expected that domestic gasoline and diesel prices will be lowered by 950 yuan and 915 yuan per tonne, respectively.

On a nationwide average basis, the prices of 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-grade diesel are expected to decrease by 0.75 yuan, 0.79 yuan, and 0.78 yuan per liter, respectively.

Filling a 50-liter tank with 92-octane gasoline will cost approximately 37.5 yuan less.

This price reduction marks the largest single cut so far this year.

For example, a private car traveling 2,000 kilometers per month with an average fuel consumption of 8 liters per 100 kilometers will see its fuel costs reduced by about 56 yuan before the next pricing window opens at 24:00 on July 17th, 2026.

In the logistics sector, a heavy-duty truck traveling 10,000 kilometers per month with a fuel consumption of 38 liters per 100 kilometers will experience a cost reduction of roughly 1,383 yuan during the same period.

This adjustment represents the 13th change to domestic refined oil product prices in 2026 and the fourth decrease, resulting in a pattern of "eight increases, four decreases, and one hold" for the year so far.

Liu Bingjuan, chief energy analyst at Longzhong Information, noted that following previous reductions on June 4th and June 18th, domestic refined oil prices have been lowered once again, marking the largest single reduction in nearly six years.

After this "three consecutive reductions," the price levels for gasoline and diesel have decreased significantly, with diesel prices returning to the "6-yuan era."

The NDRC's Price Monitoring Center anticipates that the future trajectory of international oil prices remains uncertain, primarily dependent on several factors.

These include the actual resumption efficiency and navigation safety conditions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Other key factors are the speed at which Gulf oil-producing nations can restore crude production capacity and increase exports, as well as the pace of global crude inventory replenishment and adjustments to national strategic reserves.