Wall Street forecasts Tesla’s 2022 full-year earnings advancing 80% to $4.07 per share, after surging 202% in 2021. Sales should jump 55% to $83.3 billion, down from a 71% gain in 2021.
Tesla Motors is scheduled to announce Q4 earnings results after the market closes on Wednesday, January 25.
Latest Results
It posted quarterly revenue of $21.5 billion, its highest ever, up from around $13.8 billion in Q3 2021, and generated nearly $3.3 billion in quarterly profit.
Q4 Guidance
It expected to finish the year just shy of its 2022 target of boosting vehicle deliveries by 50%, and Musk floated the idea of a buyback of around $5 billion to $10 billion in 2023.
Wall Street forecasts 2022 full-year earnings advancing 80% to $4.07 per share, after surging 202% in 2021. Sales should jump 55% to $83.3 billion, down from a 71% gain in 2021.
Tesla Set Record With 405,278 Deliveries in Q4, but Missed Estimates
It produced over 439,000 vehicles and delivered over 405,000 vehicles in Q4, missing Bloomberg's estimate of 420,760. The delivery of 405,278 vehicles represents 31% Y/Y growth.
The total vehicle deliveries grew 40% Y/Y to 1.31M, while production grew 47% Y/Y to 1.37M in FY22.
Different Competitive Landscapes in the Chinese and American Markets
Throughout North America, EV competition remains relatively light. And in the U.S., new EV credits should bolster Tesla's demand in 2023.
The bottom line is that volume EV production, especially of head-to-head rivals to Tesla vehicles, may not come until 2024 or later.
But overall competition to win over American car buyers will heat up. Total U.S. auto production should pick up in 2023 as chip shortages and other supply chain woes fade. Prices of used cars, including Tesla EVs, are coming down.
While in China, vehicles including the BYD Seal, Nio ET5 and other EVs are taking on the popular Tesla Model 3. The higher-margin Model Y faces relatively less competition in China, but that could change in 2023. BYD, Nio, Li Auto, XPeng, Zeekr and others are looking to move into Tesla's affordable luxury space. Meanwhile, the Tesla Model 3 and Y are starting to age.
Another thing to mention is that Tesla has cut prices in the United States, Germany, China and other Asian markets, the move marked a reversal in Tesla's largest markets from the strategy it had pursued through much of 2022 when demand was strong and average sale prices for its electric vehicles had been trending higher.
Will Musk Really Stop Selling Tesla Stocks After Liquidating Over $39 Billion?
Musk signaled he wouldn’t sell any Tesla stock for a minimum of 18 months to 24 months on Twitter. He has liquidated more than $39 billion in the company’s shares since the stock peaked in November 2021.
This isn't the first time Musk has vowed not to sell more Tesla stock this year. In August, after selling more than $8 billion worth of Tesla stock to help finance his purchase of Twitter, Musk tweeted, "no further TSLA sales planned after today."
Also, he raised doubts about near-term demand and the timing of a potential share repurchase by the company mentioned in October.
Analyst Opinions
Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Rosner lowered its price target to $250 from $270 and reiterated the Buy rating, he lowered the Q4 revenue forecast from $23.5bn to $23bn and cut gross margin slightly more to 26.3%(ex-credit), and he was tweaking down 2023 deliveries estimate to 1.84m units, and revenue to $100.7 billion.
Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney offered the price target of $205 and the Buy rating, he lowered its 2023 delivery estimate from 1.85 million to 1.8 million and noted that the potential for the Chinese market to strengthen over the course of 2023 and new credits like the IRA should be positive.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh maintained a Buy rating but lowered the price target from $285 to $250, Rakesh believed concerns remain around a weakening consumer driven by rising interest rates and broader macro concerns, which could continue to be a headwind in 2023H1.
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