Co-founder of chip giant ARM Holdings, Hermann Hauser, is also a seasoned investor who has witnessed forty major tech waves. He recently shared his insights on the The Tech Download podcast.
He warns that while the AI boom could create more value than any previous tech wave, the risks are real. He also argues that Europe must maintain its partnership with the United States but should not become a "technological colony of America."
Few investors can claim to have seen all the major tech shifts of the past four decades. Hermann Hauser co-founded Acorn Computers in 1978 and helped build ARM Holdings, one of the world's most important chip companies. Today, through his firm Amadeus Capital, he invests in Europe's top hard-tech startups.
Earlier this month, I had an in-depth conversation with Hauser on a podcast covering artificial intelligence, semiconductors, quantum computing, and Europe's struggle for tech sovereignty. Amidst the current market buzz over speculative bubbles and high valuations, his core message is thought-provoking.
"The value created by this tech revolution is likely to surpass any other tech shift in human history," Hauser told me, but he added that it will be a "rollercoaster ride." What exactly does he mean?
He believes some company valuations are "clearly detached from fundamentals," and he pointed out hidden risks in the recent buzz around circular financing deals.
However, he also believes that the top major companies are unlikely to disappear. Firms like OpenAI and Anthropic, which hold massive cash reserves, can weather market turbulence even if expectations are readjusted.
As one of the creators of ARM Holdings, Hauser holds authoritative views on semiconductors. In recent years, money has poured into the "picks and shovels" of the AI boom, making chip companies some of the biggest stock market winners. But the landscape is shifting.
Currently, AI's high operating costs, challenges with chip heat dissipation, high memory prices, and bottlenecks across the entire supply chain are forcing the industry to rethink computing architecture.
Hauser highlighted frontier technologies like in-memory computing and optical computing, which aim to drastically reduce the massive energy consumption caused by data transfer between processors and memory.
He predicts that this architectural shift will be as significant as the breakthroughs that once helped ARM Holdings challenge established chip giants. "I never thought AI would drive a fundamental change in computer architecture," he said.
Under the surface, this shift is also about Europe's future positioning. Hauser argues that Europe has the foundation to nurture top-tier innovation and talent, allowing it to compete with the US and China. However, European companies face a common challenge: they struggle to grow from small startups into truly globally competitive giants.
This issue ties into his long-standing concern: tech sovereignty.
He worries that Europe remains highly dependent on foreign suppliers for key technologies, from large language models to semiconductor design software. With escalating geopolitical conflicts and various export controls, over-reliance on external technology carries massive risks. He says Europe should maintain its partnership with the United States but must not become a "technological colony of America."
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