Sealand Securities Co.,Ltd. has released a research report stating that quantum computing industrialization is accelerating. In terms of development pathways, the focus should be on two key indicators: "scalability" and "fidelity." On the hardware side, attention should be paid to dilution refrigeration systems and measurement/control systems, which are expected to account for 52.66%/66.51% of quantum computing hardware value by 2030/2035 respectively.
In its first coverage, the firm assigns a "recommended" rating to the quantum computing hardware industry, suggesting attention to companies including GuoShield Quantum (688027.SH), Hexin Instrument (688622.SH), Origin Quantum (preparing for IPO), and GuoYi Quantum (preparing for IPO).
Sealand Securities' main viewpoints include:
**Computing Bottlenecks and Quantum Advantages** The report analyzes problems arising from continuous miniaturization in traditional computing processes, explains quantum computing principles, and compares quantum computing advantages over traditional computing. Traditional computing, while efficient, struggles with exponentially growing problems, whereas the superposition and entanglement characteristics of quantum bits enable computational efficiency far superior to classical computers in specific problems.
**Quantum Tunneling Phenomenon** Traditional computing faces electron tunneling through insulating thin layers as processes shrink, leading to current leakage and eventual system failure. However, quantum bits can leverage tunneling phenomena to achieve quantum computation.
**Thermal Dissipation Effects** Traditional chips generate more heat per unit area as integration increases, potentially damaging chip lifespan. Quantum computing processes information reversibly, thus solving thermal dissipation problems.
**Quantum Computing Pathways** Comparing various quantum computing methods based on scalability and fidelity core indicators, the report identifies superconducting, ion trap, and neutral atom approaches as the three most promising implementation routes, with superconducting progressing faster than ion trap, which progresses faster than neutral atom approaches.
**Industry at Critical Inflection Point** Through analysis of global quantum information strategic planning, industry supply chain company strategies, and changes in quantum computing core hardware orders and procurement contracts, the report concludes that quantum computing is at a critical inflection point from laboratory to industrial application, with large-scale applications likely between 2027-2029.
**Policy Perspective** The report examines support and export restriction policies from major technology powers globally. Notably, the White House stated in its "FY2027 Government R&D Budget Priorities and Cross-Sector Actions" that "quantum technology is at a critical inflection point from laboratory to industrial application."
**Industry Chain Analysis** The report analyzes quantum cloud and hardware deployment by Chinese, American, and European companies. Microsoft announced in its 2025 FYQ4 that it will continue decade-long strategic thinking and investment in quantum computing. Dilution refrigeration giant Bluefors signed large orders with helium-3 raw material suppliers, with delivery cycles spanning 2028-2037. IBM expects to achieve large-scale fault-tolerant quantum computers by 2029.
**Core Hardware Components** The report identifies QPU/dilution refrigeration/measurement control systems as three core quantum computing hardware components and calculates market space for dilution refrigeration and measurement control systems. Analysis shows the value proportion of these three core hardware components in 2030/2035.
The report determines dilution refrigeration market space and competitive landscape, concluding that Chinese dilution refrigeration performance levels match international leaders, and analyzes measurement control system market space.
**Risk Warnings** Quantum computing progress may fall short of expectations; quantum computing routes may change; quantum computing key equipment may change; calculation results may not match actual industry development; publicly available materials used in research reports may have information lag or untimely updates.
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