According to the refined oil product pricing schedule, the domestic retail price ceiling for refined oil products is set for a new adjustment at 24:00 on July 17. Based on the latest tracking data of international crude oil price changes by institutions, the projected increase for this round's retail price ceiling far exceeds the 50 yuan per ton adjustment threshold. Consequently, an upward adjustment is highly likely, marking what would be the ninth such increase so far this year.
Retail Price Ceiling Likely to Rise
Since the beginning of the current pricing cycle for domestic refined oil products, international crude oil prices have initially fallen before rising. This shift has caused the domestic reference crude oil change rate to turn from negative to positive and continue expanding within positive territory. Analyst Wang Luqing from Zhuochuang Information noted that during this pricing cycle (from 24:00 July 3 to 24:00 July 17), international crude oil prices have risen significantly due to the impact of Middle East conflicts, leading to a sequential increase in the average crude oil price. As a result, the domestic reference crude oil change rate has turned positive, creating an expectation for an upward adjustment in the retail price ceiling. Monitoring model calculations from Zhuochuang Information show that as of the ninth working day of this cycle, the reference crude oil change rate stands at 5.58%. Based on this rate, the corresponding increase for domestic gasoline and diesel prices would be 245 yuan per ton. Currently, only one working day remains before the price adjustment window opens.
Analyst Liu Bingjuan from Longzhong Information stated that an increase in the domestic retail price ceiling for refined oil products is a high-probability event for this round and would also represent the ninth increase of 2026.
Wholesale Prices for Gasoline and Diesel Both Climb
Since the start of the current pricing cycle, wholesale market prices for refined oil products have been on the rise. Data from Longzhong Information monitoring indicates that as of July 15, the national average market price for 92-octane gasoline was 8,272 yuan per ton, an increase of 4.38% compared to the previous pricing cycle. The average market price for diesel was 6,966 yuan per ton, up 1.89% from the last cycle, showing a simultaneous increase for both gasoline and diesel.
Liu Bingjuan explained that recent renewed tensions between the US and Iran have led to a sharp rise in international crude oil prices, providing cost-side support for domestic refined oil prices. On the supply side, an increase in refinery maintenance has driven domestic refined oil supply to new lows. On the demand side, gasoline demand is expected to improve driven by summer travel, while the diesel market is gradually entering its off-season. Regarding inventory, both gasoline and diesel have experienced varying degrees of destocking. Overall, favorable conditions on both the cost and supply-demand fronts are jointly pushing domestic refined oil prices higher.
Looking ahead at the crude oil price outlook, Liu Bingjuan believes that in the short term, the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East is unlikely to ease quickly, heightening concerns over supply risks in the crude oil market. Therefore, prices are more likely to exhibit volatile strength. Gao Jian, a crude oil researcher at Shandong Qisheng Futures, suggests that currently, international crude oil trends are primarily supported by geopolitical conflicts, with relatively limited boost from the supply side. The previous severe imbalance between bullish and bearish forces in the crude oil market has noticeably eased, and the trend has not continued as a one-sided bullish run. The tense situation in the Middle East has not abated, and potential risks to crude oil supply persist, necessitating continued close monitoring of shipping conditions in the Strait of Hormuz. If the actual supply of crude oil does not suffer a substantial impact, there is a possibility for prices to retreat and form a new range of fluctuation.
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