Abstract
CNX Resources Corp will publish its quarterly results on January 29, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview consolidates last quarter’s performance and current-quarter forecasts alongside recent institutional commentary to set expectations for core metrics and segment trends.
Market Forecast
Based on the company’s forecast dataset, the market expects CNX Resources Corp’s current quarter revenue to reach USD 430.26 million, with EBIT at USD 114.61 million and adjusted EPS at USD 0.35; estimated year-over-year changes are revenue up 0.63%, EBIT down 2.20%, and adjusted EPS down 7.61%. Forecast detail on gross profit margin and net profit margin was not provided; however, the last quarter indicated a gross margin of 68.87% and a net profit margin of 44.83%, offering a reference point for potential normalization. The company’s primary business is natural gas, LNG, and oil sales, and the outlook centers on commodity price stability and disciplined hedging. The segment with the strongest directional potential remains natural gas, LNG, and oil, which contributed USD 400.99 million last quarter; year-over-year detail for this segment was not specified.
Last Quarter Review
CNX Resources Corp reported last quarter revenue of USD 583.84 million, a gross profit margin of 68.87%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of USD 202.00 million, a net profit margin of 44.83%, and adjusted EPS of USD 0.49; year-over-year growth rates for these headline items were revenue up 37.63%, EBIT up 65.83%, and adjusted EPS up 19.51%. A key highlight was a material outperformance versus prior estimates, with revenue exceeding projections by USD 126.07 million and EPS surpassing estimates by USD 0.16, reflecting effective cost control and realized hedge gains. Main business momentum was led by natural gas, LNG, and oil revenue of USD 400.99 million, supported by commodity derivatives of USD 131.70 million; year-over-year growth by segment was not specified.
Current Quarter Outlook
Main Business: Natural Gas, LNG, and Oil
Natural gas, LNG, and oil sales anchor CNX Resources Corp’s revenue base, generating USD 400.99 million last quarter. Into the current quarter, macro signals suggest modest revenue resilience relative to recent volatility, while the company’s operational discipline aims to sustain cash margins even as EBIT is forecast to decline by 2.20% year over year to USD 114.61 million. The price trajectory of Appalachian natural gas and the realized pricing from CNX Resources Corp’s sales mix, including basis exposure, will define topline variability. Given the high gross margin of 68.87% last quarter, incremental changes in realized gas price could translate into measurable swings in operating income; nevertheless, the firm’s hedge cadence typically reduces downside tails but can cap upside when spot prices rally. Any changes in volumes from core Pennsylvania and West Virginia wells, including pad timing and lateral productivity, will influence revenue progression; stable development activity supports the slight revenue increase implied by the forecast.
Most Promising Business: Commodity Derivatives and Margin Optimization
Commodity derivatives delivered USD 131.70 million of last-quarter revenue, highlighting the role of hedging in stabilizing cash flow. In the current quarter, derivatives and pricing strategy are positioned to mitigate EBIT softness and support adjusted EPS of USD 0.35 despite the forecast year-over-year decline of 7.61%. The hedging book’s structure—strike levels, tenor, and the proportion of fixed-price vs collars—drives realized margin protection as winter demand and storage dynamics shape short-term volatility. While the hedge portfolio could limit upside if spot prices strengthen, it provides predictability to free cash flow and can preserve the high net profit margin reference point of 44.83% from last quarter under neutral price outcomes. The effectiveness of margin optimization depends on balancing hedge coverage against operational cost discipline, including gathering, processing, and transportation, particularly with potential basis widening in colder months.
Stock Price Drivers This Quarter
The primary stock drivers are expected to be realized gas pricing, hedge effectiveness against spot volatility, and any updates on capital allocation. With adjusted EPS forecast at USD 0.35 and revenue at USD 430.26 million, modest topline growth combined with a projected EBIT decline suggests investors will focus on cash margins and updated guidance for volumes and costs. If management reiterates conservative capital spending and repurchase activity, the market may weigh free cash flow resilience more than nominal revenue growth, especially if gross margin trends remain near last quarter’s 68.87%. Any commentary on basis differentials, takeaway capacity, or well cost inflation will be scrutinized; confirmation that operating costs are contained could offset concerns about lower year-over-year EBIT and EPS.
Analyst Opinions
Recent institutional views coalesce around a mixed-to-cautious stance, with a modest majority leaning cautious given the forecast for year-over-year declines in EBIT and adjusted EPS despite slightly higher revenue. Commentary emphasizes disciplined hedging and stable operations but points to limited near-term upside if winter pricing fails to materially improve realized sales. Larger sell-side houses and independent research boutiques have reiterated neutral or hold-style positions, highlighting valuation parity with cash flow expectations and the importance of updated guidance on capital return. The cautious camp argues that, while last quarter’s outperformance was notable, current-quarter expectations of EBIT at USD 114.61 million and adjusted EPS at USD 0.35 reflect a reversion from unusually strong hedge realizations and cost benefits; they look for clarity on sustainability of margins relative to the 68.87% gross margin and the 44.83% net margin reference points. For investors tracking the release on January 29, 2026 Pre-Market, consensus suggests results near forecasts, with limited deviation unless realized gas pricing or hedge outcomes differ meaningfully from plan.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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