On January 5th, A-shares celebrated a positive market opening, with the Shanghai Composite Index reclaiming the 4000-point level and the ChiNext Board rising over 2.8%. On the first trading day of the year, A-shares advanced on increased volume, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 4000 points and the ChiNext Index showing a significant uptick. First, the relatively warm performance of overseas Chinese shares during the holiday period provided a positive backdrop for post-holiday sentiment in A-shares. Second, strong domestic policy expectations, including the implementation of large-scale equipment renewals, consumer goods trade-in programs, and a series of measures to stabilize the real estate market at the start of the new year, have clarified the policy path for expanding domestic demand and stabilizing the property sector, effectively boosting market risk appetite. Third, the December manufacturing PMI returned to expansionary territory after eight months, showing signs of recovery in both production and demand, which alleviated market concerns about the economic fundamentals. Additionally, frontier technology sectors, represented by commercial aerospace and brain-computer interfaces, are expected to see密集 expectations in terms of commercial application and technological breakthroughs, providing a significant thematic catalyst for growth styles and the ChiNext Board. The current market trend may exhibit characteristics of a "Spring Rally." The集中落地 of incremental policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and stabilizing the real estate market at the beginning of the year,协同发力 from both supply and demand sides, not only injects short-term momentum into related industrial chains but also demonstrates the government's determination to support the economy, serving as the core force driving the recovery in market sentiment. Simultaneously, the better-than-expected rebound in the December PMI data directly catalyzed market sentiment, reinforcing expectations of a phased economic stabilization. Combined with the背景 of still abundant market micro-liquidity, these factors collectively form the foundation for the continuation of the spring rally. Although external variables such as geopolitics may cause short-term fluctuations, the medium-term market trend will still be primarily driven by the pace of domestic economic recovery and policy implementation. Looking ahead for the full year, a sustained upward breakthrough in the A-share market will depend on the continuous improvement of more core variables. On one hand, the proactive fiscal policy and appropriately accommodative monetary environment in the first year of the "16th Five-Year Plan" provide a macroeconomic foundation for the recovery of listed company earnings, but the strength of the recovery in the economy's endogenous momentum still needs to be continuously confirmed by subsequent data. On the other hand, although foreign trade resilience is expected to persist, changes in the global macroeconomic environment and geopolitical situation remain important external观察 points. Improvements in corporate profits and valuation expansion are expected to form a double boost, but achieving this path requires observing the full implementation of detailed policy rules, a substantial recovery in the confidence of micro entities, and an acceleration in the pace of long-term capital entering the market. Going forward, the market is likely to seek direction amidst fundamental verification and policy expectations, with technological innovation and the recovery of domestic demand likely remaining key structural themes. Data source: Wind, as of January 5, 2026. Funds carry risks, investment requires caution. The fund manager is committed to managing and utilizing fund assets with principles of honesty,信用, diligence, and responsibility, but does not guarantee that the fund will necessarily be profitable, nor does it guarantee returns. The past performance of a fund is not indicative of its future performance. A MACD golden cross signal has formed, and these stocks are performing well! A wealth of information and precise analysis is available on the Sina Finance App.
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