Long-term contract pricing for semiconductor silicon wafers is signaling widespread increases, with institutional analysis pointing to sustained supply-demand tightness, while leveraged funds have been actively building positions in several related stocks over the past week.
Long-Term Negotiations Begin, 12-Inch Wafers May See Significant Price Jumps
Industry research cited from Taiwan's Commercial Times indicates that new long-term contract prices for 12-inch epitaxial wafers are projected to rise 15%-25%, while polished wafer prices could climb 40% or more, with some second-tier customers facing increases exceeding 50%. Further price appreciation is expected to continue into 2028. As memory and logic chip production expand simultaneously, the supply-demand balance for 12-inch semiconductor wafers is tightening, with the upward trend in long-term contract pricing for 2027 gradually being established. Spot prices for 12-inch wafers are currently rising steadily, and analysts anticipate that fourth-quarter spot prices this year could surpass existing long-term contract levels, providing key support for renegotiation of new long-term agreements in 2027. GlobalWafers Chairman Doris Hsu recently noted that the wafer market has indeed entered a phase of price increases, with momentum not limited to the short-term spot market, as long-term contract prices are also rising in tandem.
Notably, amid these price hike expectations, domestic manufacturers are accelerating capacity expansion for 12-inch wafers. In June, National Silicon Industry Group Co., Ltd. (NSIG) announced plans to inject a combined 11.448 billion yuan with Guosheng Group into Shanghai Xinsheng, primarily for 300mm wafer capacity upgrades. In July, Xi'an Yicai disclosed that monthly production and sales of 12-inch electronic-grade wafers had surpassed 1 million pieces, and in August, together with strategic investors, it committed 6.5 billion yuan to a 12-inch facility in Wuhan. Also in July, Tcl Zhonghuan Renewable Energy Technology Co.,Ltd. announced a planned total investment of 11.96 billion yuan for a 12-inch large-diameter wafer project in Shenzhen, with combined monthly capacity for polishing, epitaxial, and testing set at 700,000 wafers.
Supply-Demand Tightness Confirmed, Price Hike Cycle Expected to Persist
Semiconductor silicon wafers are the critical foundational material for producing integrated circuits and discrete devices. Core wafer fabrication processes such as photolithography, etching, and doping all rely on wafer substrates, with 12-inch wafers primarily serving advanced process nodes for computing and memory applications. UBS, in its latest global wafer industry report, projects that 12-inch wafer utilization will climb from 84% in 2026 to 99% by 2028. If manufacturers fail to expand capacity, severe shortages could emerge by 2029. The bank has raised its 2026 demand growth forecast for 12-inch wafers from 9% to 11% and expects wafer prices to potentially rise more than 20% annually during 2027-2028. Industry feedback indicates that wafer makers may need to see price increases of 40%-50% or more before committing to capacity expansion.
SEMI statistics show that global semiconductor silicon wafer shipments reached 3.573 billion square inches in the second quarter of 2026, up 7.4% year-over-year and 9.1% quarter-over-quarter. Based on this data, Donghai Securities believes global wafer demand is steadily recovering, and with new wafer supply from fab expansions lagging behind, the industry's supply-demand landscape is likely to remain tight. CITIC Securities has also previously projected that heavily doped wafers, which are relatively scarce in supply, should see continued price increases in the second half of the year, with related companies potentially negotiating higher long-term contract prices for the next year with customers in September-October 2026.
Margin Traders Position Early in Multiple Concept Stocks
According to East Money's "Hot Topics" analysis, there are currently 22 A-share stocks involved in the semiconductor silicon wafer concept, with a combined market capitalization of approximately 1 trillion yuan. Hwatsing Technology Co., Ltd. leads with a market cap of 126.06 billion yuan, followed by Xi'an Yicai at 121.13 billion yuan, and National Silicon Industry Group Co., Ltd. in third place at 82.23 billion yuan. Six other stocks, including Grinm Semiconductor Materials Co.,Ltd., Yandong Micro, San'an Optoelectronics, and Sicc Co., Ltd., each have market caps exceeding 50 billion yuan.
Year-to-date, the semiconductor silicon wafer concept sector has performed well overall, with only three stocks posting declines. Grinm Semiconductor Materials Co.,Ltd. leads with a surge of 344%, while Yunnan Germanium, Hwatsing Technology Co., Ltd., and Zhengfan Technology have all seen their share prices double. ST Dongni, Zhongjing Technology, and Yandong Micro have each gained more than 60%. Over the past week, the sector has continued its strong performance, with only Hwatsing Technology Co., Ltd. falling 4.68%, and minor dips of less than 1% for Yunnan Germanium and Roshow Technology Co.,Ltd. All other concept stocks posted gains, with Sicc Co., Ltd. and Tcl Zhonghuan Renewable Energy Technology Co.,Ltd. both rising nearly 10%.
From a capital flow perspective, East Money Choice data shows that over the past week, 12 semiconductor silicon wafer concept stocks attracted margin trading interest. Among them, Tcl Zhonghuan Renewable Energy Technology Co.,Ltd. saw leveraged funds add aggressively, with net purchases of 377 million yuan. Roshow Technology Co.,Ltd. and Grinm Semiconductor Materials Co.,Ltd. received net inflows of 115 million yuan and 93 million yuan respectively. Lion Micro, Nanda Optoelectronics, Sicc Co., Ltd., and Hwatsing Technology Co., Ltd. each recorded net margin buying ranging from 57 million to 79 million yuan.
National Silicon Industry Group Co., Ltd. is the domestic leader in 12-inch large-diameter wafers. As of the end of the first half, the company's combined 300mm wafer capacity at its Shanghai and Taiyuan facilities had reached 1 million wafers per month. The company recently stated on its interactive platform that some products which previously saw significant price cuts have begun price recovery, while certain products with strong demand now have room for price increases. The company is actively advancing price optimization and business negotiations. On September 11, Grinm Semiconductor Materials Co.,Ltd. disclosed a restructuring plan to acquire 71.89% of Shandong Youyan Aisi and 14.98% of Shandong Youyan Semiconductor, which upon completion would form a complete wafer product matrix spanning 6, 8, and 12-inch sizes. In the first half, the company's revenue grew 21.20% year-over-year, with 8-inch wafer production and sales reaching record highs.
Comments