Four months after facing a 40% additional tariff threat from former U.S. President Donald Trump, Brazil has emerged as the second country to secure tariff exemptions through a firm stance. This outcome reinforces the "TACO" (Trump Always Chickens Out) narrative and offers a new reference for other nations navigating White House policies.
On the 20th, the White House announced that President Trump had signed an executive order adjusting tariffs on Brazilian imports. While the 40% ad valorem tariff on some goods remains unchanged, certain Brazilian agricultural products entering the U.S. after November 13 will no longer face additional duties. The White House stated the move aims to balance national security concerns with fostering trade relations with Brazil.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva had earlier refused to yield to U.S. pressure, staunchly defending judicial independence—a stance that saw former President Jair Bolsonaro imprisoned by Brazilian courts. Brazil’s firm approach ultimately secured tariff relief.
Behind this shift lies the White House’s growing concern over domestic cost-of-living pressures. Brazil’s victory reveals a deeper logic in U.S. decision-making: despite Trump’s unpredictable policies, they follow a clear hierarchy of objectives. The core goal remains "Make America Great Again," with geopolitical economic policies as strategies, while tariff threats and dramatic posturing serve as adjustable tactical tools.
### The Reward for a Tough Stance The White House’s policy reversal appears driven by mounting worries over U.S. household expenses. Recent surveys show declining consumer confidence alongside Trump’s slipping approval ratings. Analysts suggest his team is urgently seeking ways to lower grocery prices, making tariff cuts on agricultural imports an immediate solution. Brazil’s exemption from punitive tariffs reflects a pragmatic adjustment to ease inflation, prioritizing domestic politics over punitive measures.
Brazil’s success offers a key lesson: standing firm against bullying may prove more effective than appeasement. Unlike Switzerland, which once sent executives bearing gifts to negotiate tariff reductions, Brazil chose resistance—a strategy mirrored by others seeking favorable outcomes.
### Decoding the White House Model: Goals, Strategies, and Tactics Understanding Trump’s administration requires distinguishing between "goals," "strategies," and "tactics." Despite criticisms of capriciousness, his policies follow a discernible logic.
As analyzed by Gillian Tett of the *Financial Times*, Trump’s core "goal" revolves around his "Make America Great Again" slogan. Advisors translate this into "strategies," primarily "geo-economic" decisions that blend economic tools with political, technological, and military agendas—such as using tariffs to pressure Brazil over Bolsonaro or targeting Norway for its sovereign fund’s divestment from Caterpillar.
Beneath these are "tactics" borrowed from Trump’s business playbook: bullying, threats, theatrics, policy flip-flops, and "flood the zone" misinformation campaigns. These attention-grabbing maneuvers aim to gain leverage but shouldn’t be conflated with deeper objectives.
### The Logic of "TACO Deals" Because such dramatic moves are often tactical rather than entrenched, the White House can swiftly abandon them when backfiring or when higher priorities arise. This explains why Brazil’s tariff threat vanished overnight—and why Trump could attack New York Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani one day and embrace him the next. While some may view this as "whitewashing" White House actions, the key lies in separating signals from noise.
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