Middle East oil exports recover to pre-war levels as shipping firms reroute around conflict zones

Middle East oil exports have climbed back to pre-war levels as shipping companies opt for alternative routes to bypass key waterways caught up in conflict, such as the Strait of Hormuz.

Data compiled by energy data analytics firm Kpler shows that in the week ended October 18, Gulf oil-producing nations (excluding Iran) shipped an average of 24.6 million barrels per day, above the pre-war average of 23.3 million barrels. This pushed the seven-day average export volume to its highest level since mid-February; just days after mid-February, the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran, sparking conflict that at one point disrupted oil exports from the world's most important producing region.

The data is far more volatile than before the war and represents preliminary figures. Its scope covers the Strait of Hormuz (through which the vast majority of the region's crude exports were shipped before the war), ship-to-ship transfer operations in waters outside the strait, and crude export volumes from Red Sea ports.

The data also shows that crude shipped through the Strait of Hormuz itself remains more than one-third below pre-war levels.

Despite the rebound in total Middle East exports, oil prices have continued to climb in recent months, with stress signals in some refined product markets steadily intensifying. International benchmark Brent crude touched a new high since May on Tuesday; on Wednesday Brent rose 2.1% to $111.03 a barrel.

In response to attacks on Gulf shipping lanes, Saudi Arabia has diverted large volumes of crude for export through the Red Sea port of Yanbu. However, capacity on this alternative route also declines periodically 鈥?the pipeline leading to the port and nearby vessels have repeatedly come under attack. For example, after a mid-September attack on the pipeline connecting Saudi oil fields to Yanbu, export volumes from the port temporarily fell; shipments only recovered after Saudi Aramco completed repairs to the pipeline.

Despite the rise in attacks on vessels, the region's oil exports remained high this month. Data from the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), which monitors maritime security incidents, shows that 28 shipping attacks have occurred in the region in October, compared with 18 recorded in September.