Abstract
Axon Enterprise, Inc. is scheduled to release quarterly results on February 24, 2026 Post Market, with investors tracking revenue acceleration, margin trends, adjusted EPS progress, and updates on bookings and backlog to gauge the sustainability of growth into the next fiscal periods.Market Forecast
For the current quarter, projections point to revenue of 755.40 million, representing 33.44% year-over-year growth, alongside adjusted EPS estimated at 1.61, up 14.31% year-over-year, and EBIT of 158.41 million, up 60.30% year-over-year; margin forecasts were not provided. The outlook emphasizes continued momentum in product bundles and platform adoption supporting bookings, while cross-selling into software subscriptions remains central to expanding recurring revenue. The most promising business segment is Software and Sensors, which generated 305.24 million last quarter; segment-level year-over-year growth was not disclosed, though consolidated revenue increased 30.57% year-over-year in that period.Last Quarter Review
Axon Enterprise, Inc. reported revenue of 710.64 million, a gross profit margin of 60.14%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of -2.19 million with a net profit margin of -0.31%, and adjusted EPS of 1.17, with year-over-year growth of -19.31%; net profit declined 106.05% quarter-on-quarter. A key financial highlight was a modest top-line beat, with revenue exceeding estimates by 7.14 million, or approximately 1.01%. The core business mix remained balanced between hardware and software, with the Connected Devices segment contributing 405.40 million, or 57.05% of revenue, and the Software and Sensors segment contributing 305.24 million, or 42.95% of revenue.Current Quarter Outlook
Connected Devices Segment Outlook
The Connected Devices segment, which accounted for 405.40 million last quarter, is positioned to sustain steady deployments through ongoing refresh cycles and multi-product bundles that integrate devices with cloud workflows. Although specific quarter forecasts for device revenue are not disclosed, the company’s hardware-driven funnel is increasingly tied to proprietary data capture across its platform, reinforcing customer attachment and engagement. This dynamic raises the likelihood that device shipments support not only immediate revenue but also incremental subscription attach, which can enhance lifetime value per account and bolster cross-sell momentum. The segment’s contribution this quarter will be assessed through unit shipment commentary, bundle mix, and attach rates into adjacent subscriptions, all of which influence consolidated growth and margin composition. Intra-quarter pricing, cost discipline in manufacturing and supply chain, and any indications of scale efficiencies are pertinent to margin durability, while booking cadence in new hardware programs provides insight into potential sequential trends.Software and Sensors Segment Outlook
Software and Sensors, with last quarter revenue of 305.24 million, remains central to recurring revenue expansion and margin progression, with platform usage and data workflows driving multi-year subscription uptake. Analyst commentary in the current period highlights bundled offerings that support bookings growth, as well as expanding adoption of operational modules such as Axon 911 and integrations across command and evidence workflows. This quarter’s consolidated revenue estimate of 755.40 million, up 33.44% year-over-year, implies that software-linked cross-sell and renewal dynamics are expected to stay constructive; while segment-specific year-over-year growth is not disclosed, the company-wide growth rate frames expectations for subscription expansion. Progress in customer deployments of integrated hardware and software often leads to broader module adoption, which can incrementally raise average revenue per user and lengthen contract terms, contributing to revenue visibility. The development of features that augment actionable intelligence, efficiency for frontline operations, and compliance workflows may influence upsell rates, and any commentary on seat expansion, take-rate trends for premium tiers, or customer retention will be closely watched.Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter
The stock’s performance around earnings is likely to be shaped by the relationship between growth and profitability, particularly the interplay of revenue expansion with adjusted EPS trends and commentary on margins. The implied earnings trajectory in the forecast—EPS at 1.61 (+14.31% year-over-year) and EBIT at 158.41 million (+60.30% year-over-year)—will be assessed in context of revenue mix and the balance between investments in product development and sales motion versus operating leverage. Bookings, backlog, and renewal indicators are key signals for revenue visibility in subsequent periods, while updates on bundled offerings, adoption of new modules such as Axon 911, and traction in emerging use cases offer incremental clarity on medium-term growth vectors. Investors will likely focus on the quarterly tone regarding pace of deal closures, procurement environments, and whether subscription attach remains consistent with prior patterns, as these elements often drive expectations for sustained growth and margin stability. Execution on cross-sell, product bundling efficacy, deployment cadence, and the health of multi-year contracts are among the most salient drivers to the market’s near-term reaction.Analyst Opinions
Recent analyst commentary within the specified timeframe reflects a predominantly positive stance, with a clear bullish majority. Among notable views, RBC Capital Markets reaffirmed an Outperform rating and a price target of $860 in mid-February, emphasizing an “attractive” entry point after the stock’s decline with the broader software cohort and citing stable end-markets, visible recurring revenue, and an expanding product ecosystem. The RBC note highlighted growth drivers such as expansion into emerging verticals, drone adoption, Axon 911, and bundled offerings that underpin bookings growth, while calling out the hardware-driven funnel of proprietary data that reinforces network effects across the platform serving law enforcement, prosecutors, and command centers. Earlier in January, Northcoast Research upgraded the shares to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $742, acknowledging improving fundamentals and strengthened demand signals that support the case for sustained revenue growth.The ratio of bullish to bearish opinions during the period under review is 2:0, with both RBC Capital Markets and Northcoast Research contributing to the positive skew. Supplementary consensus context from recent aggregation points to an average rating of Buy and a mean price target of $815, which is consistent with the constructive institutional tone around revenue acceleration and subscription visibility. The majority view anchors on a combination of estimated revenue growth of 33.44% year-over-year and improving earnings power, as suggested by the forecast EPS trajectory of 1.61 and EBIT of 158.41 million. These expectations are framed by analysis that ties near-term performance not only to topline momentum but also to mix shifts and leverage from multi-year contracts, with platform bundling providing additional avenues for bookings strength.
This majority perspective highlights several elements that will inform how the market interprets the print and guide: first, whether revenue growth aligns with or exceeds the 755.40 million estimate; second, whether margins exhibit durability consistent with historical performance, even as the prior quarter’s GAAP net profit margin was -0.31% and adjusted EPS declined 19.31% year-over-year; and third, whether management’s commentary substantiates ongoing momentum in subscription uptake and module-level adoption, including Axon 911 and other operational enhancements. The positive view also considers the potential for bookings and backlog to underpin confidence beyond the quarter, as recurring revenue characteristics and multi-year contracts have historically contributed to visibility. Within this framework, analysts expect the market to place meaningful weight on the quality of forward indicators in the release and call, particularly guidance thresholds, deal cadence, mix dynamics, and any signals of efficiency gains that might support both growth and margin outcomes in subsequent quarters.
In sum, the consensus stance among institutions within the current window is supportive of Axon Enterprise, Inc.’s near-term performance, centered on a revenue estimate that implies 33.44% year-over-year growth and an earnings forecast that suggests constructive operational leverage. The bullish majority is oriented around the thesis that platform bundling and subscription expansion will continue to reinforce bookings, and that software-led visibility can complement hardware deployments to sustain the growth profile. Investors will weigh how any qualitative updates on customer adoption, retention, and cross-sell trends compare against these expectations, with the degree of alignment likely guiding the market’s reaction following the February 24, 2026 Post Market release.
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