Geopolitical conflicts persist, creating a tight supply-demand balance for methanol. In the first quarter, methanol prices initially fluctuated before experiencing a sharp increase, primarily driven by Middle Eastern tensions in March. Domestic production increased by 6.7% year-on-year, while imports were high initially but declined later, with March imports expected to drop to around 500,000 tons due to the conflict. Coastal inventories fell rapidly, and inland inventories peaked before declining. If the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked in the second quarter, imports will stay low, maintaining a tight supply-demand balance. If the situation eases, geopolitical premiums may recede, posing a risk of price corrections. As port inventories continue to decline, domestic supply remains robust. As of the week ending March 18, the operating rate of domestic methanol plants rebounded to 92.8%, reaching a historical high. The current domestic methanol market exhibits a structural characteristic of "sharp import reduction coupled with full domestic production." The continuous drawdown in port inventories confirms the tangible impact of reduced imports, while domestic operating rates at historical highs indicate limited room for further supply increases. Should the import gap continue to widen, domestic production increases may not sufficiently compensate, potentially exacerbating the supply-demand gap. Given high import dependency and near-maximum domestic capacity utilization, the market is shifting from "expectation-driven" to "reality-driven," with the materialization of the supply gap becoming a core support for prices. A Fitch report suggests that methanol producers' profit margins will expand as the Iran conflict tightens supply. Hong Kong-listed companies involved in the methanol industry chain include China Sunrise Group (01907), CIMC Enric (03899), Hong Kong and China Gas (00003), and Goldwind Technology (02208).
In the broader market outlook, the three major US stock indices surged. Iran's President expressed willingness to end the war provided demands are met. At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1,125.37 points to 46,341.51, a gain of 2.49%; the S&P 500 increased by 184.8 points to 6,528.52, up 2.91%; and the Nasdaq Composite jumped by 795.99 points to 21,590.63, advancing 3.83%. For March, the Dow fell 5.38%, the Nasdaq dropped 4.75%, and the S&P 500 declined 5.09%. According to reports, Iran's President stated that Iran has no intention to provoke war but is willing to end it if assurances against further attacks are secured. Major technology stocks broadly rebounded, with Meta up over 6%, Google rising more than 5%, Tesla gaining over 4%, and Amazon, Netflix, and Microsoft each increasing over 3%. Apple advanced more than 2%. Among chip stocks, SanDisk, ARM, and STMicroelectronics rose over 10%. Popular US-listed Chinese stocks collectively climbed, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index up nearly 3%, and NIO surging over 9%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index ADRs also rose, calculated to close at 25,324.59 points, up 536.45 points or 2.16% from Hong Kong's previous close. NYMEX WTI crude oil for the current month fell by $1.32 to $101.56 per barrel, a drop of 1.28%. COMEX gold for the current month rose by $142.10, or 3.12%, to $4,699.6 per ounce.
Key developments include former US President Trump stating that the US would end military operations in Iran within "two to three weeks," with or without an agreement, and withdrawing once Iran cannot possess nuclear weapons. Warren Buffett noted that stock valuations remain unattractive but Berkshire Hathaway would deploy cash if markets decline significantly, with Apple remaining its largest single investment. OpenAI completed a historic $122 billion funding round, valuing the company at $852 billion, with a major IPO expected by year-end. The round included over $30 billion from high-net-worth individuals via banks, and shares will be included in ARK Invest ETFs. Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank committed $110 billion, with the remainder from Silicon Valley and Wall Street firms. Huawei reported 2025 revenue of 880.9 billion yuan, with R&D investment of 192.3 billion yuan, accounting for 21.8% of revenue. Alphamab Oncology (09966) announced that its KN026, combined with docetaxel for injection, met the primary endpoint in a Phase III trial for HER2-positive breast cancer neoadjuvant therapy. Ganfeng Lithium stated that the energy storage sector is in a phase of explosive growth, a trend expected to continue into 2026, driven by AI data centers and global energy independence efforts. Yadea will increase prices across all product categories by over 300 yuan starting April 1, 2026. Knowledge Atlas (02513) reported 2025 revenue of 724 million yuan, up 132% year-on-year, with API business ARR surging 60-fold to 1.7 billion yuan. Miniso (09896) announced annual revenue growth of 26.2% to 21.444 billion yuan, with adjusted net profit up 6.5% to 2.898 billion yuan. Huaxin Cement (06655) expects Q1 net profit attributable to owners to rise 126% to 213% year-on-year to between 520 million and 720 million yuan. Sany International (00631) reported annual net profit attributable to owners up 61.47% to 1.779 billion yuan. Super Hi (09658) posted a 67.1% increase in net profit attributable to owners to $36.429 million for 2025.
In individual stock highlights, CSPC PHARMA (01093) announced that its subsidiary, in collaboration with Alphamab Oncology, achieved the primary endpoint in a Phase III study of anitol monoclonal antibody combined with docetaxel for neoadjuvant treatment of HER2-positive breast cancer.
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