HAIDILAO (06862) rose nearly 3% before the midday break. At the time of writing, the stock was up 2.85%, trading at HKD 14.79, with a turnover of HKD 97.15 million. CLSA released a research note stating that investors remain cautious about HAIDILAO's dividend cut and high expectations for a recovery in table turnover. However, the firm believes that, considering the current challenges, a turnover rate of 3.9 times for 2025 is quite stable. It is projected that the number of stores will increase by 2%, contrasting with an overall 7% contraction in the hot pot restaurant sector for 2025. CLSA indicated that easing competition should support HAIDILAO's store expansion, estimating a compound annual growth rate of 2% to 3% in store numbers from 2026 to 2028. The firm also views HAIDILAO's renewed focus on developing sub-brands as a strategically correct move. Haitong International pointed out that, according to management disclosures, the combined table turnover rate for HAIDILAO hot pot stores increased year-on-year in January-February 2026, and the growth trend continued into March, indicating a steady recovery in the first quarter overall. At the industry level, the broader catering market is showing a stable upward trend with marginal improvements on the consumer side. The firm believes that as a leader in the hot pot sector, HAIDILAO's brand strength and operational capabilities position it for strong recovery elasticity during the industry's rebound period.
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