On November 5, FPG Wealth International noted that short-term momentum in the gold market is shifting, with prices likely to consolidate in the last two months of 2025. However, from a longer-term perspective, the next wave of price movement—potentially around $1,000—is more likely to be upward. FPG believes that while market sentiment has stabilized, the long-term bullish structure remains intact, and the current consolidation is a healthy correction.
According to Aakash Doshi, head of gold strategy at State Street Investment Management, gold prices are expected to repeatedly test support levels below $4,000 per ounce. Historically, gold ETFs exhibit seasonal weakness from November to December, making short-term pullbacks and sideways trading inevitable. He added that while the upward trend remains intact over a 12-month horizon, an eight-week consolidation period is typical within a long-term bull market.
The world’s largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), has seen holdings drop by nearly 8 metric tons since gold peaked around $4,360. FPG noted that despite recent outflows from global ETFs, overall investment demand remains unprecedented, with current holdings still below 2020 highs. Doshi predicts record highs could be reached as early as Q1 2026, with a potential climb to $5,000 if the $4,000 support holds.
Recent ETF outflows may amplify seasonal softness, but the market is undergoing a momentum reset after a rapid rally driven by FOMO (fear of missing out) in August and September. FPG, however, expects any downside to be limited, as strong fundamentals continue to support prices. The World Gold Council reports record physical demand even at elevated price levels, indicating investor acceptance of higher valuations.
Central bank buying remains a key driver, with official reserves projected to grow by 750–900 metric tons this year—down from the past three years’ ~1,000-ton annual pace but still double 2021 levels. Doshi highlighted that de-dollarization is transforming gold into a viable alternative to fiat currencies. Meanwhile, investment demand stays robust amid expectations of further Fed rate cuts and persistent inflation.
Lower real rates (as inflation outpaces policy easing) reduce gold’s opportunity cost as a non-yielding asset, while steepening yield curves anchor inflation expectations—both supporting prices. FPG concludes that macro conditions remain favorable for gold bulls, leaving room for further upside.
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