Amundi SA's Chief Investment Officer, Vincent Mortier, stated that global markets have significantly shifted toward a more pessimistic outlook regarding the duration of the Iran conflict, now anticipating it could persist for several months.
Mortier noted on Thursday that market expectations have changed within the past 24 hours, moving from an assumption that the conflict would be resolved in weeks to an expectation that it will take months. He made these remarks during a conference in Paris hosted by Bank of America, adding that investing under the current circumstances is "not easy."
As attacks escalate in the Persian Gulf, raising concerns over potential long-term damage to key energy infrastructure, oil and natural gas prices surged on Thursday. European natural gas futures jumped by as much as 35%, reaching more than double pre-conflict levels, while Brent crude oil prices climbed above $118 per barrel.
Richard Clarida, Global Economic Advisor at Pimco, speaking at the same event, indicated that "the longer the conflict lasts, the greater the negative impact on the U.S. economy." He emphasized that "a prolonged energy shock has not yet been fully priced in by markets, but if sustained, it could indeed slow economic growth."
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