Tesla's Crash Could Signal A New Bull Market

Seeking Alpha2022-12-26

As the market transitions to more sensible valuations, there are less and less reasons to be bearish. The beginning of a recession often signals the beginning of a new bull market. I'm still not ...

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Comments

来人
2022-12-27
来人
Ok
runningjames
2022-12-27
runningjames
Any bull will create more short sell, so sell when there is rebound for 20%. Trending is down, up and ultimately down till investors gain back confidence!
Chris82
2022-12-27
Chris82
Really? Hmm
- Qwinbie:
  👍👍👍
MLFL
2022-12-27
MLFL
Good morning
AlanChong
2022-12-27
AlanChong
Ok
Kenwen
2022-12-27
Kenwen
K
- wenjin:
  K

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587

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I'm still not ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566265-teslas-crash-could-signal-a-new-bull-market\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"seekingalpha_fund","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's Crash Could Signal A New Bull Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's Crash Could Signal A New Bull Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-26 23:34 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566265-teslas-crash-could-signal-a-new-bull-market><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As the market transitions to more sensible valuations, there are less and less reasons to be bearish. The beginning of a recession often signals the beginning of a new bull market. I'm still not ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566265-teslas-crash-could-signal-a-new-bull-market\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"TSLA","symbol_name":"特斯拉","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566265-teslas-crash-could-signal-a-new-bull-market","article_id":"1152955091","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152955091","pubTimestamp":1672068846,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha_fund","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"As the market transitions to more sensible valuations, there are less and less reasons to be bearish","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"translate_title":"特斯拉的崩溃可能预示着新的牛市","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9},"content_text":"As the market transitions to more sensible valuations, there are less and less reasons to be bearish. The beginning of a recession often signals the beginning of a new bull market. I'm still not bullish on Tesla, nor the S&P 500. But I wouldn't be short, and I wouldn't be sitting on a pile of cash at a time like this. Jim Cramer often exclaims on CNBC, \"There's always a bull market somewhere.\" This is by no means an endorsement to take advice from Jim Cramer, but I believe there are plenty of contrarian values to be bullish about as the market shifts from what was to what will be.As for Tesla, I'm not a buyer yet. In my base-case scenario, I'm seeing long-term returns of 5% per annum.Tesla's OutlookLegendary investor Sir John Templeton once told Bill Miller the following:\"There are only two types of investors, those who are outlook and trend investors and those who are price and value investors. 90% of people are outlook and trend investors.\"A year ago, the outlook for Tesla was phenomenal. The company was demonstrating explosive growth, and that growth was expected to continue. So far, it has. Tesla's net income has soared:Despite this terrific financial performance, Tesla's stock has plummeted. So, what's going on here? Well, like Sir John Templeton said, 90% of investors are \"outlook and trend investors.\" What happened was, the outlook changed. Elon's diverting his attention to Twitter, a recession looms, and Tesla's market share is shrinking. These are all things I warned about five months ago. They're coming to light.As for the market share, Forbes said it best:\"Tesla continues to dominate EV sales, with 65.4% of the EV market. However, that is down from 68.2% in 2021 and 79.4% in 2020. With the market growing, Tesla is still rapidly growing its vehicle sales despite its loss of market share.\"That's U.S. market share, by the way. Globally, Tesla has an EV market share of roughly 14%.Another issue for Tesla is that every automaker globally now wants in on EVs. And of course they do, EV stocks have soared and traditional automaker's stocks haven't. In addition, Tesla's displayed remarkable profitability selling EVs. This is simply how capitalism works; when an industry gets hot, everyone rushes in. Once everyone's rushed in, the profits get squeezed because there's more competition.Now, looking at Tesla. The company maintains the premium product. Tesla's customer satisfaction scores are industry leading. Tesla had a first-mover advantage, and its technology is just better at this point. Elon did a terrific job of building Tesla's brand in a brutally competitive auto market.One thing to note on the customer satisfaction scores: that's just for EVs. Newsweek recently found that buyers of internal-combustion vehicles are more satisfied than EV buyers:Tesla's Future GrowthThe number of electric vehicles sold globally is projected to grow at 17% per annum through to 2027. Tesla has an opportunity to grow its autonomous drive, EV semis, and energy generation businesses at rates exceeding 17%. But, because 95% of Tesla's revenue comes from the automotive arm, where Tesla is losing share, I expect the company to grow its earnings at a slower pace.The other issue I'm seeing is the cyclicality of the auto market. Nearing the peak of the cycle, Tesla's never before been this profitable:These kinds of profit margins and return on assets numbers are far beyond industry averages and will be difficult to maintain over the next 10 years as competitors catch up on a technological basis.All things considered, I'm projecting earnings to grow at a pace of 15% per annum from here.Long-term ReturnsMy 2033 price target for Tesla is $208 per share, implying a return of 5% per annum.Tesla has earnings per share of $3.23. If it can grow that at 15% per annum, it will earn $13 per share in 2033. I've applied a terminal multiple of 16x.Does Tesla's Collapse Signal A New Bull Market?A recession in 2023 is now baked into the consensus. Globally, the world is already beginning to experience rolling recessions. At the same time, investors are exceptionally pessimistic:This usually means it's time to be contrarian and go long. All of the billions of dollars that have flowed out of Tesla stock have to go somewhere after all.I explained in my article \"QQQ: An Excessive Bust Is Coming\" why I expect the pessimism in the technology sector to be more prolonged. The reason: George Soros has explained in the past that excessive margin, speculation, and exuberance on the upside creates excessive insolvency, fear, and selling on the downside. After the dot com bubble burst, it took 15 years for tech stocks to gain popularity again. Fifteen years is often the amount of time it takes for investors to forget about the pain inflicted when a bubble pops. After a fifteen-year stretch, earnings tend to catch up to valuations, and industries have time to fully consolidate.Rather than looking at stocks that have \"gone to the moon,\" I'm finding opportunities in stocks that have gone nowhere for 15 years. This was the case for Microsoft (MSFT) in 2013:I believe flat indexes and stocks are now great hunting grounds for the next bull market. The key is that the fundamentals are in good shape (You don't want to buy a company that's about to go bankrupt or become obsolete). As for the market as a whole, I'm seeing returns in the range of 5% per annum for the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) and Spider S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY).In ConclusionI've upgraded Tesla to a \"sell\" from a \"strong-sell.\" Following its collapse, Tesla may be offering a market matching return of 5% per annum. A 5% annual return is right between a \"sell\" and \"hold\" rating for me. But, because of the opportunity cost and George Soros' boom-bust model, I think it's best to sell and move on. After tech stocks toppled in 2000, value stocks really took off. As Jim Cramer often exclaims, \"There's always a bull market somewhere.\" Until next time, happy investing.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9925718631,"gmtCreate":1672106986623,"gmtModify":1676538635140,"author":{"id":"3575544575320394","authorId":"3575544575320394","name":"来人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0af89587decbb8a1d3e1596adc29cb98","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575544575320394","authorIdStr":"3575544575320394"},"htmlText":"Ok&nbsp;","listText":"Ok&nbsp;","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9925718631","repostId":1152955091,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152955091","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1672068846,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1152955091?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-26 23:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla's Crash Could Signal A New Bull Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152955091","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"As the market transitions to more sensible valuations, there are less and less reasons to be bearish","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>As the market transitions to more sensible valuations, there are less and less reasons to be bearish. The beginning of a recession often signals the beginning of a new bull market. I&#39;m still not bullish on Tesla, nor the S&amp;P 500. But I wouldn&#39;t be short, and I wouldn&#39;t be sitting on a pile of cash at a time like this. Jim Cramer often exclaims on CNBC, &#34;There&#39;s always a bull market somewhere.&#34; This is by no means an endorsement to take advice from Jim Cramer, but I believe there are plenty of contrarian values to be bullish about as the market shifts from what was to what will be.</p><p>As for Tesla, I&#39;m not a buyer yet. In my base-case scenario, I&#39;m seeing long-term returns of 5% per annum.</p><h3>Tesla&#39;s Outlook</h3><p>Legendary investor Sir John Templeton once told Bill Miller the following:</p><p>&#34;There are only two types of investors, those who are outlook and trend investors and those who are price and value investors. 90% of people are outlook and trend investors.&#34;</p><p>A year ago, the outlook for Tesla was phenomenal. The company was demonstrating explosive growth, and that growth was expected to continue. So far, it has. Tesla&#39;s net income has soared:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fba100e8982cd53633e2922445131c56\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Despite this terrific financial performance, Tesla&#39;s stock has plummeted. So, what&#39;s going on here? Well, like Sir John Templeton said, 90% of investors are &#34;outlook and trend investors.&#34; What happened was, the outlook changed. Elon&#39;s diverting his attention to Twitter, a recession looms, and Tesla&#39;s market share is shrinking. These are all things I warned about five months ago. They&#39;re coming to light.</p><p>As for the market share, Forbes said it best:</p><p>&#34;Tesla continues to dominate EV sales, with 65.4% of the EV market. However, that is down from 68.2% in 2021 and 79.4% in 2020. With the market growing, Tesla is still rapidly growing its vehicle sales despite its loss of market share.&#34;</p><p>That&#39;s U.S. market share, by the way. Globally, Tesla has an EV market share of roughly 14%.</p><p>Another issue for Tesla is that every automaker globally now wants in on EVs. And of course they do, EV stocks have soared and traditional automaker&#39;s stocks haven&#39;t. In addition, Tesla&#39;s displayed remarkable profitability selling EVs. This is simply how capitalism works; when an industry gets hot, everyone rushes in. Once everyone&#39;s rushed in, the profits get squeezed because there&#39;s more competition.</p><p>Now, looking at Tesla. The company maintains the premium product. Tesla&#39;s customer satisfaction scores are industry leading. Tesla had a first-mover advantage, and its technology is just better at this point. Elon did a terrific job of building Tesla&#39;s brand in a brutally competitive auto market.</p><p>One thing to note on the customer satisfaction scores: that&#39;s just for EVs. Newsweek recently found that buyers of internal-combustion vehicles are more satisfied than EV buyers:</p><h3><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fbc8c1f4dbd2317e3869d3baa82c71d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"146\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Tesla&#39;s Future Growth</h3><p>The number of electric vehicles sold globally is projected to grow at 17% per annum through to 2027. Tesla has an opportunity to grow its autonomous drive, EV semis, and energy generation businesses at rates exceeding 17%. But, because 95% of Tesla&#39;s revenue comes from the automotive arm, where Tesla is losing share, I expect the company to grow its earnings at a slower pace.</p><p>The other issue I&#39;m seeing is the cyclicality of the auto market. Nearing the peak of the cycle, Tesla&#39;s never before been this profitable:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e3b58724f2aa85e9e67975a8a420129\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>These kinds of profit margins and return on assets numbers are far beyond industry averages and will be difficult to maintain over the next 10 years as competitors catch up on a technological basis.</p><p>All things considered, I&#39;m projecting earnings to grow at a pace of 15% per annum from here.</p><h3>Long-term Returns</h3><p>My 2033 price target for Tesla is $208 per share, implying a return of 5% per annum.</p><p>Tesla has earnings per share of $3.23. If it can grow that at 15% per annum, it will earn $13 per share in 2033. I&#39;ve applied a terminal multiple of 16x.</p><p>Does Tesla&#39;s Collapse Signal A New Bull Market?</p><p>A recession in 2023 is now baked into the consensus. Globally, the world is already beginning to experience rolling recessions. At the same time, investors are exceptionally pessimistic:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e666c6a5e6b8a46f7ae6082479758c6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"239\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>This usually means it&#39;s time to be contrarian and go long. All of the billions of dollars that have flowed out of Tesla stock have to go somewhere after all.</p><p>I explained in my article &#34;QQQ: An Excessive Bust Is Coming&#34; why I expect the pessimism in the technology sector to be more prolonged. The reason: George Soros has explained in the past that excessive margin, speculation, and exuberance on the upside creates excessive insolvency, fear, and selling on the downside. After the dot com bubble burst, it took 15 years for tech stocks to gain popularity again. Fifteen years is often the amount of time it takes for investors to forget about the pain inflicted when a bubble pops. After a fifteen-year stretch, earnings tend to catch up to valuations, and industries have time to fully consolidate.</p><p>Rather than looking at stocks that have &#34;gone to the moon,&#34; I&#39;m finding opportunities in stocks that have gone nowhere for 15 years. This was the case for Microsoft (MSFT) in 2013:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0b1d1bc530a801074c58a4c41b77c74\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>I believe flat indexes and stocks are now great hunting grounds for the next bull market. The key is that the fundamentals are in good shape (You don&#39;t want to buy a company that&#39;s about to go bankrupt or become obsolete). As for the market as a whole, I&#39;m seeing returns in the range of 5% per annum for the Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (VOO) and Spider S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF (SPY).</p><h3>In Conclusion</h3><p>I&#39;ve upgraded Tesla to a &#34;sell&#34; from a &#34;strong-sell.&#34; Following its collapse, Tesla may be offering a market matching return of 5% per annum. A 5% annual return is right between a &#34;sell&#34; and &#34;hold&#34; rating for me. But, because of the opportunity cost and George Soros&#39; boom-bust model, I think it&#39;s best to sell and move on. After tech stocks toppled in 2000, value stocks really took off. As Jim Cramer often exclaims, &#34;There&#39;s always a bull market somewhere.&#34; Until next time, happy investing.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's Crash Could Signal A New Bull Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's Crash Could Signal A New Bull Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-26 23:34 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566265-teslas-crash-could-signal-a-new-bull-market><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As the market transitions to more sensible valuations, there are less and less reasons to be bearish. The beginning of a recession often signals the beginning of a new bull market. I'm still not ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566265-teslas-crash-could-signal-a-new-bull-market\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566265-teslas-crash-could-signal-a-new-bull-market","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152955091","content_text":"As the market transitions to more sensible valuations, there are less and less reasons to be bearish. The beginning of a recession often signals the beginning of a new bull market. I'm still not bullish on Tesla, nor the S&P 500. But I wouldn't be short, and I wouldn't be sitting on a pile of cash at a time like this. Jim Cramer often exclaims on CNBC, \"There's always a bull market somewhere.\" This is by no means an endorsement to take advice from Jim Cramer, but I believe there are plenty of contrarian values to be bullish about as the market shifts from what was to what will be.As for Tesla, I'm not a buyer yet. In my base-case scenario, I'm seeing long-term returns of 5% per annum.Tesla's OutlookLegendary investor Sir John Templeton once told Bill Miller the following:\"There are only two types of investors, those who are outlook and trend investors and those who are price and value investors. 90% of people are outlook and trend investors.\"A year ago, the outlook for Tesla was phenomenal. The company was demonstrating explosive growth, and that growth was expected to continue. So far, it has. Tesla's net income has soared:Despite this terrific financial performance, Tesla's stock has plummeted. So, what's going on here? Well, like Sir John Templeton said, 90% of investors are \"outlook and trend investors.\" What happened was, the outlook changed. Elon's diverting his attention to Twitter, a recession looms, and Tesla's market share is shrinking. These are all things I warned about five months ago. They're coming to light.As for the market share, Forbes said it best:\"Tesla continues to dominate EV sales, with 65.4% of the EV market. However, that is down from 68.2% in 2021 and 79.4% in 2020. With the market growing, Tesla is still rapidly growing its vehicle sales despite its loss of market share.\"That's U.S. market share, by the way. Globally, Tesla has an EV market share of roughly 14%.Another issue for Tesla is that every automaker globally now wants in on EVs. And of course they do, EV stocks have soared and traditional automaker's stocks haven't. In addition, Tesla's displayed remarkable profitability selling EVs. This is simply how capitalism works; when an industry gets hot, everyone rushes in. Once everyone's rushed in, the profits get squeezed because there's more competition.Now, looking at Tesla. The company maintains the premium product. Tesla's customer satisfaction scores are industry leading. Tesla had a first-mover advantage, and its technology is just better at this point. Elon did a terrific job of building Tesla's brand in a brutally competitive auto market.One thing to note on the customer satisfaction scores: that's just for EVs. Newsweek recently found that buyers of internal-combustion vehicles are more satisfied than EV buyers:Tesla's Future GrowthThe number of electric vehicles sold globally is projected to grow at 17% per annum through to 2027. Tesla has an opportunity to grow its autonomous drive, EV semis, and energy generation businesses at rates exceeding 17%. But, because 95% of Tesla's revenue comes from the automotive arm, where Tesla is losing share, I expect the company to grow its earnings at a slower pace.The other issue I'm seeing is the cyclicality of the auto market. Nearing the peak of the cycle, Tesla's never before been this profitable:These kinds of profit margins and return on assets numbers are far beyond industry averages and will be difficult to maintain over the next 10 years as competitors catch up on a technological basis.All things considered, I'm projecting earnings to grow at a pace of 15% per annum from here.Long-term ReturnsMy 2033 price target for Tesla is $208 per share, implying a return of 5% per annum.Tesla has earnings per share of $3.23. If it can grow that at 15% per annum, it will earn $13 per share in 2033. I've applied a terminal multiple of 16x.Does Tesla's Collapse Signal A New Bull Market?A recession in 2023 is now baked into the consensus. Globally, the world is already beginning to experience rolling recessions. At the same time, investors are exceptionally pessimistic:This usually means it's time to be contrarian and go long. All of the billions of dollars that have flowed out of Tesla stock have to go somewhere after all.I explained in my article \"QQQ: An Excessive Bust Is Coming\" why I expect the pessimism in the technology sector to be more prolonged. The reason: George Soros has explained in the past that excessive margin, speculation, and exuberance on the upside creates excessive insolvency, fear, and selling on the downside. After the dot com bubble burst, it took 15 years for tech stocks to gain popularity again. Fifteen years is often the amount of time it takes for investors to forget about the pain inflicted when a bubble pops. After a fifteen-year stretch, earnings tend to catch up to valuations, and industries have time to fully consolidate.Rather than looking at stocks that have \"gone to the moon,\" I'm finding opportunities in stocks that have gone nowhere for 15 years. This was the case for Microsoft (MSFT) in 2013:I believe flat indexes and stocks are now great hunting grounds for the next bull market. The key is that the fundamentals are in good shape (You don't want to buy a company that's about to go bankrupt or become obsolete). As for the market as a whole, I'm seeing returns in the range of 5% per annum for the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) and Spider S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY).In ConclusionI've upgraded Tesla to a \"sell\" from a \"strong-sell.\" Following its collapse, Tesla may be offering a market matching return of 5% per annum. A 5% annual return is right between a \"sell\" and \"hold\" rating for me. But, because of the opportunity cost and George Soros' boom-bust model, I think it's best to sell and move on. After tech stocks toppled in 2000, value stocks really took off. As Jim Cramer often exclaims, \"There's always a bull market somewhere.\" Until next time, happy investing.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9925702505,"gmtCreate":1672103293708,"gmtModify":1676538634028,"author":{"id":"4117336023184202","authorId":"4117336023184202","name":"runningjames","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3467c93ce8ec8c583f28f405e68f0c00","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4117336023184202","authorIdStr":"4117336023184202"},"htmlText":"Any bull will create more short sell, so sell when there is rebound for 20%. Trending is down, up and ultimately down till investors gain back confidence!","listText":"Any bull will create more short sell, so sell when there is rebound for 20%. Trending is down, up and ultimately down till investors gain back confidence!","text":"Any bull will create more short sell, so sell when there is rebound for 20%. Trending is down, up and ultimately down till investors gain back confidence!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9925702505","repostId":1152955091,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152955091","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1672068846,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1152955091?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-26 23:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla's Crash Could Signal A New Bull Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152955091","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"As the market transitions to more sensible valuations, there are less and less reasons to be bearish","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>As the market transitions to more sensible valuations, there are less and less reasons to be bearish. The beginning of a recession often signals the beginning of a new bull market. I&#39;m still not bullish on Tesla, nor the S&amp;P 500. But I wouldn&#39;t be short, and I wouldn&#39;t be sitting on a pile of cash at a time like this. Jim Cramer often exclaims on CNBC, &#34;There&#39;s always a bull market somewhere.&#34; This is by no means an endorsement to take advice from Jim Cramer, but I believe there are plenty of contrarian values to be bullish about as the market shifts from what was to what will be.</p><p>As for Tesla, I&#39;m not a buyer yet. In my base-case scenario, I&#39;m seeing long-term returns of 5% per annum.</p><h3>Tesla&#39;s Outlook</h3><p>Legendary investor Sir John Templeton once told Bill Miller the following:</p><p>&#34;There are only two types of investors, those who are outlook and trend investors and those who are price and value investors. 90% of people are outlook and trend investors.&#34;</p><p>A year ago, the outlook for Tesla was phenomenal. The company was demonstrating explosive growth, and that growth was expected to continue. So far, it has. Tesla&#39;s net income has soared:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fba100e8982cd53633e2922445131c56\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Despite this terrific financial performance, Tesla&#39;s stock has plummeted. So, what&#39;s going on here? Well, like Sir John Templeton said, 90% of investors are &#34;outlook and trend investors.&#34; What happened was, the outlook changed. Elon&#39;s diverting his attention to Twitter, a recession looms, and Tesla&#39;s market share is shrinking. These are all things I warned about five months ago. They&#39;re coming to light.</p><p>As for the market share, Forbes said it best:</p><p>&#34;Tesla continues to dominate EV sales, with 65.4% of the EV market. However, that is down from 68.2% in 2021 and 79.4% in 2020. With the market growing, Tesla is still rapidly growing its vehicle sales despite its loss of market share.&#34;</p><p>That&#39;s U.S. market share, by the way. Globally, Tesla has an EV market share of roughly 14%.</p><p>Another issue for Tesla is that every automaker globally now wants in on EVs. And of course they do, EV stocks have soared and traditional automaker&#39;s stocks haven&#39;t. In addition, Tesla&#39;s displayed remarkable profitability selling EVs. This is simply how capitalism works; when an industry gets hot, everyone rushes in. Once everyone&#39;s rushed in, the profits get squeezed because there&#39;s more competition.</p><p>Now, looking at Tesla. The company maintains the premium product. Tesla&#39;s customer satisfaction scores are industry leading. Tesla had a first-mover advantage, and its technology is just better at this point. Elon did a terrific job of building Tesla&#39;s brand in a brutally competitive auto market.</p><p>One thing to note on the customer satisfaction scores: that&#39;s just for EVs. Newsweek recently found that buyers of internal-combustion vehicles are more satisfied than EV buyers:</p><h3><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fbc8c1f4dbd2317e3869d3baa82c71d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"146\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Tesla&#39;s Future Growth</h3><p>The number of electric vehicles sold globally is projected to grow at 17% per annum through to 2027. Tesla has an opportunity to grow its autonomous drive, EV semis, and energy generation businesses at rates exceeding 17%. But, because 95% of Tesla&#39;s revenue comes from the automotive arm, where Tesla is losing share, I expect the company to grow its earnings at a slower pace.</p><p>The other issue I&#39;m seeing is the cyclicality of the auto market. Nearing the peak of the cycle, Tesla&#39;s never before been this profitable:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e3b58724f2aa85e9e67975a8a420129\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>These kinds of profit margins and return on assets numbers are far beyond industry averages and will be difficult to maintain over the next 10 years as competitors catch up on a technological basis.</p><p>All things considered, I&#39;m projecting earnings to grow at a pace of 15% per annum from here.</p><h3>Long-term Returns</h3><p>My 2033 price target for Tesla is $208 per share, implying a return of 5% per annum.</p><p>Tesla has earnings per share of $3.23. If it can grow that at 15% per annum, it will earn $13 per share in 2033. I&#39;ve applied a terminal multiple of 16x.</p><p>Does Tesla&#39;s Collapse Signal A New Bull Market?</p><p>A recession in 2023 is now baked into the consensus. Globally, the world is already beginning to experience rolling recessions. At the same time, investors are exceptionally pessimistic:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e666c6a5e6b8a46f7ae6082479758c6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"239\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>This usually means it&#39;s time to be contrarian and go long. All of the billions of dollars that have flowed out of Tesla stock have to go somewhere after all.</p><p>I explained in my article &#34;QQQ: An Excessive Bust Is Coming&#34; why I expect the pessimism in the technology sector to be more prolonged. The reason: George Soros has explained in the past that excessive margin, speculation, and exuberance on the upside creates excessive insolvency, fear, and selling on the downside. After the dot com bubble burst, it took 15 years for tech stocks to gain popularity again. Fifteen years is often the amount of time it takes for investors to forget about the pain inflicted when a bubble pops. After a fifteen-year stretch, earnings tend to catch up to valuations, and industries have time to fully consolidate.</p><p>Rather than looking at stocks that have &#34;gone to the moon,&#34; I&#39;m finding opportunities in stocks that have gone nowhere for 15 years. This was the case for Microsoft (MSFT) in 2013:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0b1d1bc530a801074c58a4c41b77c74\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>I believe flat indexes and stocks are now great hunting grounds for the next bull market. The key is that the fundamentals are in good shape (You don&#39;t want to buy a company that&#39;s about to go bankrupt or become obsolete). As for the market as a whole, I&#39;m seeing returns in the range of 5% per annum for the Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (VOO) and Spider S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF (SPY).</p><h3>In Conclusion</h3><p>I&#39;ve upgraded Tesla to a &#34;sell&#34; from a &#34;strong-sell.&#34; Following its collapse, Tesla may be offering a market matching return of 5% per annum. A 5% annual return is right between a &#34;sell&#34; and &#34;hold&#34; rating for me. But, because of the opportunity cost and George Soros&#39; boom-bust model, I think it&#39;s best to sell and move on. After tech stocks toppled in 2000, value stocks really took off. As Jim Cramer often exclaims, &#34;There&#39;s always a bull market somewhere.&#34; Until next time, happy investing.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's Crash Could Signal A New Bull Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's Crash Could Signal A New Bull Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-26 23:34 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566265-teslas-crash-could-signal-a-new-bull-market><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As the market transitions to more sensible valuations, there are less and less reasons to be bearish. The beginning of a recession often signals the beginning of a new bull market. I'm still not ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566265-teslas-crash-could-signal-a-new-bull-market\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566265-teslas-crash-could-signal-a-new-bull-market","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152955091","content_text":"As the market transitions to more sensible valuations, there are less and less reasons to be bearish. The beginning of a recession often signals the beginning of a new bull market. I'm still not bullish on Tesla, nor the S&P 500. But I wouldn't be short, and I wouldn't be sitting on a pile of cash at a time like this. Jim Cramer often exclaims on CNBC, \"There's always a bull market somewhere.\" This is by no means an endorsement to take advice from Jim Cramer, but I believe there are plenty of contrarian values to be bullish about as the market shifts from what was to what will be.As for Tesla, I'm not a buyer yet. In my base-case scenario, I'm seeing long-term returns of 5% per annum.Tesla's OutlookLegendary investor Sir John Templeton once told Bill Miller the following:\"There are only two types of investors, those who are outlook and trend investors and those who are price and value investors. 90% of people are outlook and trend investors.\"A year ago, the outlook for Tesla was phenomenal. The company was demonstrating explosive growth, and that growth was expected to continue. So far, it has. Tesla's net income has soared:Despite this terrific financial performance, Tesla's stock has plummeted. So, what's going on here? Well, like Sir John Templeton said, 90% of investors are \"outlook and trend investors.\" What happened was, the outlook changed. Elon's diverting his attention to Twitter, a recession looms, and Tesla's market share is shrinking. These are all things I warned about five months ago. They're coming to light.As for the market share, Forbes said it best:\"Tesla continues to dominate EV sales, with 65.4% of the EV market. However, that is down from 68.2% in 2021 and 79.4% in 2020. With the market growing, Tesla is still rapidly growing its vehicle sales despite its loss of market share.\"That's U.S. market share, by the way. Globally, Tesla has an EV market share of roughly 14%.Another issue for Tesla is that every automaker globally now wants in on EVs. And of course they do, EV stocks have soared and traditional automaker's stocks haven't. In addition, Tesla's displayed remarkable profitability selling EVs. This is simply how capitalism works; when an industry gets hot, everyone rushes in. Once everyone's rushed in, the profits get squeezed because there's more competition.Now, looking at Tesla. The company maintains the premium product. Tesla's customer satisfaction scores are industry leading. Tesla had a first-mover advantage, and its technology is just better at this point. Elon did a terrific job of building Tesla's brand in a brutally competitive auto market.One thing to note on the customer satisfaction scores: that's just for EVs. Newsweek recently found that buyers of internal-combustion vehicles are more satisfied than EV buyers:Tesla's Future GrowthThe number of electric vehicles sold globally is projected to grow at 17% per annum through to 2027. Tesla has an opportunity to grow its autonomous drive, EV semis, and energy generation businesses at rates exceeding 17%. But, because 95% of Tesla's revenue comes from the automotive arm, where Tesla is losing share, I expect the company to grow its earnings at a slower pace.The other issue I'm seeing is the cyclicality of the auto market. Nearing the peak of the cycle, Tesla's never before been this profitable:These kinds of profit margins and return on assets numbers are far beyond industry averages and will be difficult to maintain over the next 10 years as competitors catch up on a technological basis.All things considered, I'm projecting earnings to grow at a pace of 15% per annum from here.Long-term ReturnsMy 2033 price target for Tesla is $208 per share, implying a return of 5% per annum.Tesla has earnings per share of $3.23. If it can grow that at 15% per annum, it will earn $13 per share in 2033. I've applied a terminal multiple of 16x.Does Tesla's Collapse Signal A New Bull Market?A recession in 2023 is now baked into the consensus. Globally, the world is already beginning to experience rolling recessions. At the same time, investors are exceptionally pessimistic:This usually means it's time to be contrarian and go long. All of the billions of dollars that have flowed out of Tesla stock have to go somewhere after all.I explained in my article \"QQQ: An Excessive Bust Is Coming\" why I expect the pessimism in the technology sector to be more prolonged. The reason: George Soros has explained in the past that excessive margin, speculation, and exuberance on the upside creates excessive insolvency, fear, and selling on the downside. After the dot com bubble burst, it took 15 years for tech stocks to gain popularity again. Fifteen years is often the amount of time it takes for investors to forget about the pain inflicted when a bubble pops. After a fifteen-year stretch, earnings tend to catch up to valuations, and industries have time to fully consolidate.Rather than looking at stocks that have \"gone to the moon,\" I'm finding opportunities in stocks that have gone nowhere for 15 years. This was the case for Microsoft (MSFT) in 2013:I believe flat indexes and stocks are now great hunting grounds for the next bull market. The key is that the fundamentals are in good shape (You don't want to buy a company that's about to go bankrupt or become obsolete). As for the market as a whole, I'm seeing returns in the range of 5% per annum for the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) and Spider S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY).In ConclusionI've upgraded Tesla to a \"sell\" from a \"strong-sell.\" Following its collapse, Tesla may be offering a market matching return of 5% per annum. A 5% annual return is right between a \"sell\" and \"hold\" rating for me. But, because of the opportunity cost and George Soros' boom-bust model, I think it's best to sell and move on. After tech stocks toppled in 2000, value stocks really took off. As Jim Cramer often exclaims, \"There's always a bull market somewhere.\" Until next time, happy investing.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9925472828,"gmtCreate":1672101941665,"gmtModify":1676538633753,"author":{"id":"3586564542180561","authorId":"3586564542180561","name":"Chris82","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd197088a3b1cbc3c139d97a5851a381","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3586564542180561","authorIdStr":"3586564542180561"},"htmlText":"Really? Hmm","listText":"Really? Hmm","text":"Really? Hmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9925472828","repostId":1152955091,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152955091","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1672068846,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1152955091?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-26 23:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla's Crash Could Signal A New Bull Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152955091","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"As the market transitions to more sensible valuations, there are less and less reasons to be bearish","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>As the market transitions to more sensible valuations, there are less and less reasons to be bearish. The beginning of a recession often signals the beginning of a new bull market. I&#39;m still not bullish on Tesla, nor the S&amp;P 500. But I wouldn&#39;t be short, and I wouldn&#39;t be sitting on a pile of cash at a time like this. Jim Cramer often exclaims on CNBC, &#34;There&#39;s always a bull market somewhere.&#34; This is by no means an endorsement to take advice from Jim Cramer, but I believe there are plenty of contrarian values to be bullish about as the market shifts from what was to what will be.</p><p>As for Tesla, I&#39;m not a buyer yet. In my base-case scenario, I&#39;m seeing long-term returns of 5% per annum.</p><h3>Tesla&#39;s Outlook</h3><p>Legendary investor Sir John Templeton once told Bill Miller the following:</p><p>&#34;There are only two types of investors, those who are outlook and trend investors and those who are price and value investors. 90% of people are outlook and trend investors.&#34;</p><p>A year ago, the outlook for Tesla was phenomenal. The company was demonstrating explosive growth, and that growth was expected to continue. So far, it has. Tesla&#39;s net income has soared:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fba100e8982cd53633e2922445131c56\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Despite this terrific financial performance, Tesla&#39;s stock has plummeted. So, what&#39;s going on here? Well, like Sir John Templeton said, 90% of investors are &#34;outlook and trend investors.&#34; What happened was, the outlook changed. Elon&#39;s diverting his attention to Twitter, a recession looms, and Tesla&#39;s market share is shrinking. These are all things I warned about five months ago. They&#39;re coming to light.</p><p>As for the market share, Forbes said it best:</p><p>&#34;Tesla continues to dominate EV sales, with 65.4% of the EV market. However, that is down from 68.2% in 2021 and 79.4% in 2020. With the market growing, Tesla is still rapidly growing its vehicle sales despite its loss of market share.&#34;</p><p>That&#39;s U.S. market share, by the way. Globally, Tesla has an EV market share of roughly 14%.</p><p>Another issue for Tesla is that every automaker globally now wants in on EVs. And of course they do, EV stocks have soared and traditional automaker&#39;s stocks haven&#39;t. In addition, Tesla&#39;s displayed remarkable profitability selling EVs. This is simply how capitalism works; when an industry gets hot, everyone rushes in. Once everyone&#39;s rushed in, the profits get squeezed because there&#39;s more competition.</p><p>Now, looking at Tesla. The company maintains the premium product. Tesla&#39;s customer satisfaction scores are industry leading. Tesla had a first-mover advantage, and its technology is just better at this point. Elon did a terrific job of building Tesla&#39;s brand in a brutally competitive auto market.</p><p>One thing to note on the customer satisfaction scores: that&#39;s just for EVs. Newsweek recently found that buyers of internal-combustion vehicles are more satisfied than EV buyers:</p><h3><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fbc8c1f4dbd2317e3869d3baa82c71d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"146\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Tesla&#39;s Future Growth</h3><p>The number of electric vehicles sold globally is projected to grow at 17% per annum through to 2027. Tesla has an opportunity to grow its autonomous drive, EV semis, and energy generation businesses at rates exceeding 17%. But, because 95% of Tesla&#39;s revenue comes from the automotive arm, where Tesla is losing share, I expect the company to grow its earnings at a slower pace.</p><p>The other issue I&#39;m seeing is the cyclicality of the auto market. Nearing the peak of the cycle, Tesla&#39;s never before been this profitable:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e3b58724f2aa85e9e67975a8a420129\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>These kinds of profit margins and return on assets numbers are far beyond industry averages and will be difficult to maintain over the next 10 years as competitors catch up on a technological basis.</p><p>All things considered, I&#39;m projecting earnings to grow at a pace of 15% per annum from here.</p><h3>Long-term Returns</h3><p>My 2033 price target for Tesla is $208 per share, implying a return of 5% per annum.</p><p>Tesla has earnings per share of $3.23. If it can grow that at 15% per annum, it will earn $13 per share in 2033. I&#39;ve applied a terminal multiple of 16x.</p><p>Does Tesla&#39;s Collapse Signal A New Bull Market?</p><p>A recession in 2023 is now baked into the consensus. Globally, the world is already beginning to experience rolling recessions. At the same time, investors are exceptionally pessimistic:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e666c6a5e6b8a46f7ae6082479758c6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"239\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>This usually means it&#39;s time to be contrarian and go long. All of the billions of dollars that have flowed out of Tesla stock have to go somewhere after all.</p><p>I explained in my article &#34;QQQ: An Excessive Bust Is Coming&#34; why I expect the pessimism in the technology sector to be more prolonged. The reason: George Soros has explained in the past that excessive margin, speculation, and exuberance on the upside creates excessive insolvency, fear, and selling on the downside. After the dot com bubble burst, it took 15 years for tech stocks to gain popularity again. Fifteen years is often the amount of time it takes for investors to forget about the pain inflicted when a bubble pops. After a fifteen-year stretch, earnings tend to catch up to valuations, and industries have time to fully consolidate.</p><p>Rather than looking at stocks that have &#34;gone to the moon,&#34; I&#39;m finding opportunities in stocks that have gone nowhere for 15 years. This was the case for Microsoft (MSFT) in 2013:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0b1d1bc530a801074c58a4c41b77c74\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>I believe flat indexes and stocks are now great hunting grounds for the next bull market. The key is that the fundamentals are in good shape (You don&#39;t want to buy a company that&#39;s about to go bankrupt or become obsolete). As for the market as a whole, I&#39;m seeing returns in the range of 5% per annum for the Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (VOO) and Spider S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF (SPY).</p><h3>In Conclusion</h3><p>I&#39;ve upgraded Tesla to a &#34;sell&#34; from a &#34;strong-sell.&#34; Following its collapse, Tesla may be offering a market matching return of 5% per annum. A 5% annual return is right between a &#34;sell&#34; and &#34;hold&#34; rating for me. But, because of the opportunity cost and George Soros&#39; boom-bust model, I think it&#39;s best to sell and move on. After tech stocks toppled in 2000, value stocks really took off. As Jim Cramer often exclaims, &#34;There&#39;s always a bull market somewhere.&#34; Until next time, happy investing.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's Crash Could Signal A New Bull Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's Crash Could Signal A New Bull Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-26 23:34 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566265-teslas-crash-could-signal-a-new-bull-market><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As the market transitions to more sensible valuations, there are less and less reasons to be bearish. The beginning of a recession often signals the beginning of a new bull market. I'm still not ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566265-teslas-crash-could-signal-a-new-bull-market\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566265-teslas-crash-could-signal-a-new-bull-market","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152955091","content_text":"As the market transitions to more sensible valuations, there are less and less reasons to be bearish. The beginning of a recession often signals the beginning of a new bull market. I'm still not bullish on Tesla, nor the S&P 500. But I wouldn't be short, and I wouldn't be sitting on a pile of cash at a time like this. Jim Cramer often exclaims on CNBC, \"There's always a bull market somewhere.\" This is by no means an endorsement to take advice from Jim Cramer, but I believe there are plenty of contrarian values to be bullish about as the market shifts from what was to what will be.As for Tesla, I'm not a buyer yet. In my base-case scenario, I'm seeing long-term returns of 5% per annum.Tesla's OutlookLegendary investor Sir John Templeton once told Bill Miller the following:\"There are only two types of investors, those who are outlook and trend investors and those who are price and value investors. 90% of people are outlook and trend investors.\"A year ago, the outlook for Tesla was phenomenal. The company was demonstrating explosive growth, and that growth was expected to continue. So far, it has. Tesla's net income has soared:Despite this terrific financial performance, Tesla's stock has plummeted. So, what's going on here? Well, like Sir John Templeton said, 90% of investors are \"outlook and trend investors.\" What happened was, the outlook changed. Elon's diverting his attention to Twitter, a recession looms, and Tesla's market share is shrinking. These are all things I warned about five months ago. They're coming to light.As for the market share, Forbes said it best:\"Tesla continues to dominate EV sales, with 65.4% of the EV market. However, that is down from 68.2% in 2021 and 79.4% in 2020. With the market growing, Tesla is still rapidly growing its vehicle sales despite its loss of market share.\"That's U.S. market share, by the way. Globally, Tesla has an EV market share of roughly 14%.Another issue for Tesla is that every automaker globally now wants in on EVs. And of course they do, EV stocks have soared and traditional automaker's stocks haven't. In addition, Tesla's displayed remarkable profitability selling EVs. This is simply how capitalism works; when an industry gets hot, everyone rushes in. Once everyone's rushed in, the profits get squeezed because there's more competition.Now, looking at Tesla. The company maintains the premium product. Tesla's customer satisfaction scores are industry leading. Tesla had a first-mover advantage, and its technology is just better at this point. Elon did a terrific job of building Tesla's brand in a brutally competitive auto market.One thing to note on the customer satisfaction scores: that's just for EVs. Newsweek recently found that buyers of internal-combustion vehicles are more satisfied than EV buyers:Tesla's Future GrowthThe number of electric vehicles sold globally is projected to grow at 17% per annum through to 2027. Tesla has an opportunity to grow its autonomous drive, EV semis, and energy generation businesses at rates exceeding 17%. But, because 95% of Tesla's revenue comes from the automotive arm, where Tesla is losing share, I expect the company to grow its earnings at a slower pace.The other issue I'm seeing is the cyclicality of the auto market. Nearing the peak of the cycle, Tesla's never before been this profitable:These kinds of profit margins and return on assets numbers are far beyond industry averages and will be difficult to maintain over the next 10 years as competitors catch up on a technological basis.All things considered, I'm projecting earnings to grow at a pace of 15% per annum from here.Long-term ReturnsMy 2033 price target for Tesla is $208 per share, implying a return of 5% per annum.Tesla has earnings per share of $3.23. If it can grow that at 15% per annum, it will earn $13 per share in 2033. I've applied a terminal multiple of 16x.Does Tesla's Collapse Signal A New Bull Market?A recession in 2023 is now baked into the consensus. Globally, the world is already beginning to experience rolling recessions. At the same time, investors are exceptionally pessimistic:This usually means it's time to be contrarian and go long. All of the billions of dollars that have flowed out of Tesla stock have to go somewhere after all.I explained in my article \"QQQ: An Excessive Bust Is Coming\" why I expect the pessimism in the technology sector to be more prolonged. The reason: George Soros has explained in the past that excessive margin, speculation, and exuberance on the upside creates excessive insolvency, fear, and selling on the downside. After the dot com bubble burst, it took 15 years for tech stocks to gain popularity again. Fifteen years is often the amount of time it takes for investors to forget about the pain inflicted when a bubble pops. After a fifteen-year stretch, earnings tend to catch up to valuations, and industries have time to fully consolidate.Rather than looking at stocks that have \"gone to the moon,\" I'm finding opportunities in stocks that have gone nowhere for 15 years. This was the case for Microsoft (MSFT) in 2013:I believe flat indexes and stocks are now great hunting grounds for the next bull market. The key is that the fundamentals are in good shape (You don't want to buy a company that's about to go bankrupt or become obsolete). As for the market as a whole, I'm seeing returns in the range of 5% per annum for the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) and Spider S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY).In ConclusionI've upgraded Tesla to a \"sell\" from a \"strong-sell.\" Following its collapse, Tesla may be offering a market matching return of 5% per annum. A 5% annual return is right between a \"sell\" and \"hold\" rating for me. But, because of the opportunity cost and George Soros' boom-bust model, I think it's best to sell and move on. After tech stocks toppled in 2000, value stocks really took off. As Jim Cramer often exclaims, \"There's always a bull market somewhere.\" Until next time, happy investing.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":105386295,"gmtCreate":1672326846443,"gmtModify":1672326858940,"authorId":4093065514765090,"author":{"id":4093065514765090,"idStr":"4093065514765090","authorId":4093065514765090,"name":"Qwinbie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fb5fbddef00b7268ea877d0ed2f1846","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.29","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9925472828,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<span class=\"s1\">👍👍👍</span>","text":"<span class=\"s1\">👍👍👍</span>","html":"<span class=\"s1\">👍👍👍</span>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9925470300,"gmtCreate":1672101078401,"gmtModify":1676538633557,"author":{"id":"4115684828159522","authorId":"4115684828159522","name":"MLFL","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1d7ab965a9728265436a2d2a8db471ce","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4115684828159522","authorIdStr":"4115684828159522"},"htmlText":"Good morning&nbsp;","listText":"Good morning&nbsp;","text":"Good morning","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9925470300","repostId":1152955091,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152955091","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1672068846,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1152955091?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-26 23:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla's Crash Could Signal A New Bull Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152955091","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"As the market transitions to more sensible valuations, there are less and less reasons to be bearish","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>As the market transitions to more sensible valuations, there are less and less reasons to be bearish. The beginning of a recession often signals the beginning of a new bull market. I&#39;m still not bullish on Tesla, nor the S&amp;P 500. But I wouldn&#39;t be short, and I wouldn&#39;t be sitting on a pile of cash at a time like this. Jim Cramer often exclaims on CNBC, &#34;There&#39;s always a bull market somewhere.&#34; This is by no means an endorsement to take advice from Jim Cramer, but I believe there are plenty of contrarian values to be bullish about as the market shifts from what was to what will be.</p><p>As for Tesla, I&#39;m not a buyer yet. In my base-case scenario, I&#39;m seeing long-term returns of 5% per annum.</p><h3>Tesla&#39;s Outlook</h3><p>Legendary investor Sir John Templeton once told Bill Miller the following:</p><p>&#34;There are only two types of investors, those who are outlook and trend investors and those who are price and value investors. 90% of people are outlook and trend investors.&#34;</p><p>A year ago, the outlook for Tesla was phenomenal. The company was demonstrating explosive growth, and that growth was expected to continue. So far, it has. Tesla&#39;s net income has soared:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fba100e8982cd53633e2922445131c56\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Despite this terrific financial performance, Tesla&#39;s stock has plummeted. So, what&#39;s going on here? Well, like Sir John Templeton said, 90% of investors are &#34;outlook and trend investors.&#34; What happened was, the outlook changed. Elon&#39;s diverting his attention to Twitter, a recession looms, and Tesla&#39;s market share is shrinking. These are all things I warned about five months ago. They&#39;re coming to light.</p><p>As for the market share, Forbes said it best:</p><p>&#34;Tesla continues to dominate EV sales, with 65.4% of the EV market. However, that is down from 68.2% in 2021 and 79.4% in 2020. With the market growing, Tesla is still rapidly growing its vehicle sales despite its loss of market share.&#34;</p><p>That&#39;s U.S. market share, by the way. Globally, Tesla has an EV market share of roughly 14%.</p><p>Another issue for Tesla is that every automaker globally now wants in on EVs. And of course they do, EV stocks have soared and traditional automaker&#39;s stocks haven&#39;t. In addition, Tesla&#39;s displayed remarkable profitability selling EVs. This is simply how capitalism works; when an industry gets hot, everyone rushes in. Once everyone&#39;s rushed in, the profits get squeezed because there&#39;s more competition.</p><p>Now, looking at Tesla. The company maintains the premium product. Tesla&#39;s customer satisfaction scores are industry leading. Tesla had a first-mover advantage, and its technology is just better at this point. Elon did a terrific job of building Tesla&#39;s brand in a brutally competitive auto market.</p><p>One thing to note on the customer satisfaction scores: that&#39;s just for EVs. Newsweek recently found that buyers of internal-combustion vehicles are more satisfied than EV buyers:</p><h3><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fbc8c1f4dbd2317e3869d3baa82c71d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"146\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Tesla&#39;s Future Growth</h3><p>The number of electric vehicles sold globally is projected to grow at 17% per annum through to 2027. Tesla has an opportunity to grow its autonomous drive, EV semis, and energy generation businesses at rates exceeding 17%. But, because 95% of Tesla&#39;s revenue comes from the automotive arm, where Tesla is losing share, I expect the company to grow its earnings at a slower pace.</p><p>The other issue I&#39;m seeing is the cyclicality of the auto market. Nearing the peak of the cycle, Tesla&#39;s never before been this profitable:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e3b58724f2aa85e9e67975a8a420129\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>These kinds of profit margins and return on assets numbers are far beyond industry averages and will be difficult to maintain over the next 10 years as competitors catch up on a technological basis.</p><p>All things considered, I&#39;m projecting earnings to grow at a pace of 15% per annum from here.</p><h3>Long-term Returns</h3><p>My 2033 price target for Tesla is $208 per share, implying a return of 5% per annum.</p><p>Tesla has earnings per share of $3.23. If it can grow that at 15% per annum, it will earn $13 per share in 2033. I&#39;ve applied a terminal multiple of 16x.</p><p>Does Tesla&#39;s Collapse Signal A New Bull Market?</p><p>A recession in 2023 is now baked into the consensus. Globally, the world is already beginning to experience rolling recessions. At the same time, investors are exceptionally pessimistic:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e666c6a5e6b8a46f7ae6082479758c6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"239\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>This usually means it&#39;s time to be contrarian and go long. All of the billions of dollars that have flowed out of Tesla stock have to go somewhere after all.</p><p>I explained in my article &#34;QQQ: An Excessive Bust Is Coming&#34; why I expect the pessimism in the technology sector to be more prolonged. The reason: George Soros has explained in the past that excessive margin, speculation, and exuberance on the upside creates excessive insolvency, fear, and selling on the downside. After the dot com bubble burst, it took 15 years for tech stocks to gain popularity again. Fifteen years is often the amount of time it takes for investors to forget about the pain inflicted when a bubble pops. After a fifteen-year stretch, earnings tend to catch up to valuations, and industries have time to fully consolidate.</p><p>Rather than looking at stocks that have &#34;gone to the moon,&#34; I&#39;m finding opportunities in stocks that have gone nowhere for 15 years. This was the case for Microsoft (MSFT) in 2013:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0b1d1bc530a801074c58a4c41b77c74\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>I believe flat indexes and stocks are now great hunting grounds for the next bull market. The key is that the fundamentals are in good shape (You don&#39;t want to buy a company that&#39;s about to go bankrupt or become obsolete). As for the market as a whole, I&#39;m seeing returns in the range of 5% per annum for the Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (VOO) and Spider S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF (SPY).</p><h3>In Conclusion</h3><p>I&#39;ve upgraded Tesla to a &#34;sell&#34; from a &#34;strong-sell.&#34; Following its collapse, Tesla may be offering a market matching return of 5% per annum. A 5% annual return is right between a &#34;sell&#34; and &#34;hold&#34; rating for me. But, because of the opportunity cost and George Soros&#39; boom-bust model, I think it&#39;s best to sell and move on. After tech stocks toppled in 2000, value stocks really took off. As Jim Cramer often exclaims, &#34;There&#39;s always a bull market somewhere.&#34; Until next time, happy investing.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's Crash Could Signal A New Bull Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's Crash Could Signal A New Bull Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-26 23:34 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566265-teslas-crash-could-signal-a-new-bull-market><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As the market transitions to more sensible valuations, there are less and less reasons to be bearish. The beginning of a recession often signals the beginning of a new bull market. I'm still not ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566265-teslas-crash-could-signal-a-new-bull-market\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566265-teslas-crash-could-signal-a-new-bull-market","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152955091","content_text":"As the market transitions to more sensible valuations, there are less and less reasons to be bearish. The beginning of a recession often signals the beginning of a new bull market. I'm still not bullish on Tesla, nor the S&P 500. But I wouldn't be short, and I wouldn't be sitting on a pile of cash at a time like this. Jim Cramer often exclaims on CNBC, \"There's always a bull market somewhere.\" This is by no means an endorsement to take advice from Jim Cramer, but I believe there are plenty of contrarian values to be bullish about as the market shifts from what was to what will be.As for Tesla, I'm not a buyer yet. In my base-case scenario, I'm seeing long-term returns of 5% per annum.Tesla's OutlookLegendary investor Sir John Templeton once told Bill Miller the following:\"There are only two types of investors, those who are outlook and trend investors and those who are price and value investors. 90% of people are outlook and trend investors.\"A year ago, the outlook for Tesla was phenomenal. The company was demonstrating explosive growth, and that growth was expected to continue. So far, it has. Tesla's net income has soared:Despite this terrific financial performance, Tesla's stock has plummeted. So, what's going on here? Well, like Sir John Templeton said, 90% of investors are \"outlook and trend investors.\" What happened was, the outlook changed. Elon's diverting his attention to Twitter, a recession looms, and Tesla's market share is shrinking. These are all things I warned about five months ago. They're coming to light.As for the market share, Forbes said it best:\"Tesla continues to dominate EV sales, with 65.4% of the EV market. However, that is down from 68.2% in 2021 and 79.4% in 2020. With the market growing, Tesla is still rapidly growing its vehicle sales despite its loss of market share.\"That's U.S. market share, by the way. Globally, Tesla has an EV market share of roughly 14%.Another issue for Tesla is that every automaker globally now wants in on EVs. And of course they do, EV stocks have soared and traditional automaker's stocks haven't. In addition, Tesla's displayed remarkable profitability selling EVs. This is simply how capitalism works; when an industry gets hot, everyone rushes in. Once everyone's rushed in, the profits get squeezed because there's more competition.Now, looking at Tesla. The company maintains the premium product. Tesla's customer satisfaction scores are industry leading. Tesla had a first-mover advantage, and its technology is just better at this point. Elon did a terrific job of building Tesla's brand in a brutally competitive auto market.One thing to note on the customer satisfaction scores: that's just for EVs. Newsweek recently found that buyers of internal-combustion vehicles are more satisfied than EV buyers:Tesla's Future GrowthThe number of electric vehicles sold globally is projected to grow at 17% per annum through to 2027. Tesla has an opportunity to grow its autonomous drive, EV semis, and energy generation businesses at rates exceeding 17%. But, because 95% of Tesla's revenue comes from the automotive arm, where Tesla is losing share, I expect the company to grow its earnings at a slower pace.The other issue I'm seeing is the cyclicality of the auto market. Nearing the peak of the cycle, Tesla's never before been this profitable:These kinds of profit margins and return on assets numbers are far beyond industry averages and will be difficult to maintain over the next 10 years as competitors catch up on a technological basis.All things considered, I'm projecting earnings to grow at a pace of 15% per annum from here.Long-term ReturnsMy 2033 price target for Tesla is $208 per share, implying a return of 5% per annum.Tesla has earnings per share of $3.23. If it can grow that at 15% per annum, it will earn $13 per share in 2033. I've applied a terminal multiple of 16x.Does Tesla's Collapse Signal A New Bull Market?A recession in 2023 is now baked into the consensus. Globally, the world is already beginning to experience rolling recessions. At the same time, investors are exceptionally pessimistic:This usually means it's time to be contrarian and go long. All of the billions of dollars that have flowed out of Tesla stock have to go somewhere after all.I explained in my article \"QQQ: An Excessive Bust Is Coming\" why I expect the pessimism in the technology sector to be more prolonged. The reason: George Soros has explained in the past that excessive margin, speculation, and exuberance on the upside creates excessive insolvency, fear, and selling on the downside. After the dot com bubble burst, it took 15 years for tech stocks to gain popularity again. Fifteen years is often the amount of time it takes for investors to forget about the pain inflicted when a bubble pops. After a fifteen-year stretch, earnings tend to catch up to valuations, and industries have time to fully consolidate.Rather than looking at stocks that have \"gone to the moon,\" I'm finding opportunities in stocks that have gone nowhere for 15 years. This was the case for Microsoft (MSFT) in 2013:I believe flat indexes and stocks are now great hunting grounds for the next bull market. The key is that the fundamentals are in good shape (You don't want to buy a company that's about to go bankrupt or become obsolete). As for the market as a whole, I'm seeing returns in the range of 5% per annum for the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) and Spider S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY).In ConclusionI've upgraded Tesla to a \"sell\" from a \"strong-sell.\" Following its collapse, Tesla may be offering a market matching return of 5% per annum. A 5% annual return is right between a \"sell\" and \"hold\" rating for me. But, because of the opportunity cost and George Soros' boom-bust model, I think it's best to sell and move on. After tech stocks toppled in 2000, value stocks really took off. As Jim Cramer often exclaims, \"There's always a bull market somewhere.\" Until next time, happy investing.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9925446861,"gmtCreate":1672100540753,"gmtModify":1676538633422,"author":{"id":"4125148185432112","authorId":"4125148185432112","name":"AlanChong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3dee1aa3a3a3c1814833a4d3f8a5669","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4125148185432112","authorIdStr":"4125148185432112"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9925446861","repostId":1152955091,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152955091","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1672068846,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1152955091?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-26 23:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla's Crash Could Signal A New Bull Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152955091","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"As the market transitions to more sensible valuations, there are less and less reasons to be bearish","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>As the market transitions to more sensible valuations, there are less and less reasons to be bearish. The beginning of a recession often signals the beginning of a new bull market. I&#39;m still not bullish on Tesla, nor the S&amp;P 500. But I wouldn&#39;t be short, and I wouldn&#39;t be sitting on a pile of cash at a time like this. Jim Cramer often exclaims on CNBC, &#34;There&#39;s always a bull market somewhere.&#34; This is by no means an endorsement to take advice from Jim Cramer, but I believe there are plenty of contrarian values to be bullish about as the market shifts from what was to what will be.</p><p>As for Tesla, I&#39;m not a buyer yet. In my base-case scenario, I&#39;m seeing long-term returns of 5% per annum.</p><h3>Tesla&#39;s Outlook</h3><p>Legendary investor Sir John Templeton once told Bill Miller the following:</p><p>&#34;There are only two types of investors, those who are outlook and trend investors and those who are price and value investors. 90% of people are outlook and trend investors.&#34;</p><p>A year ago, the outlook for Tesla was phenomenal. The company was demonstrating explosive growth, and that growth was expected to continue. So far, it has. Tesla&#39;s net income has soared:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fba100e8982cd53633e2922445131c56\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Despite this terrific financial performance, Tesla&#39;s stock has plummeted. So, what&#39;s going on here? Well, like Sir John Templeton said, 90% of investors are &#34;outlook and trend investors.&#34; What happened was, the outlook changed. Elon&#39;s diverting his attention to Twitter, a recession looms, and Tesla&#39;s market share is shrinking. These are all things I warned about five months ago. They&#39;re coming to light.</p><p>As for the market share, Forbes said it best:</p><p>&#34;Tesla continues to dominate EV sales, with 65.4% of the EV market. However, that is down from 68.2% in 2021 and 79.4% in 2020. With the market growing, Tesla is still rapidly growing its vehicle sales despite its loss of market share.&#34;</p><p>That&#39;s U.S. market share, by the way. Globally, Tesla has an EV market share of roughly 14%.</p><p>Another issue for Tesla is that every automaker globally now wants in on EVs. And of course they do, EV stocks have soared and traditional automaker&#39;s stocks haven&#39;t. In addition, Tesla&#39;s displayed remarkable profitability selling EVs. This is simply how capitalism works; when an industry gets hot, everyone rushes in. Once everyone&#39;s rushed in, the profits get squeezed because there&#39;s more competition.</p><p>Now, looking at Tesla. The company maintains the premium product. Tesla&#39;s customer satisfaction scores are industry leading. Tesla had a first-mover advantage, and its technology is just better at this point. Elon did a terrific job of building Tesla&#39;s brand in a brutally competitive auto market.</p><p>One thing to note on the customer satisfaction scores: that&#39;s just for EVs. Newsweek recently found that buyers of internal-combustion vehicles are more satisfied than EV buyers:</p><h3><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fbc8c1f4dbd2317e3869d3baa82c71d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"146\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Tesla&#39;s Future Growth</h3><p>The number of electric vehicles sold globally is projected to grow at 17% per annum through to 2027. Tesla has an opportunity to grow its autonomous drive, EV semis, and energy generation businesses at rates exceeding 17%. But, because 95% of Tesla&#39;s revenue comes from the automotive arm, where Tesla is losing share, I expect the company to grow its earnings at a slower pace.</p><p>The other issue I&#39;m seeing is the cyclicality of the auto market. Nearing the peak of the cycle, Tesla&#39;s never before been this profitable:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e3b58724f2aa85e9e67975a8a420129\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>These kinds of profit margins and return on assets numbers are far beyond industry averages and will be difficult to maintain over the next 10 years as competitors catch up on a technological basis.</p><p>All things considered, I&#39;m projecting earnings to grow at a pace of 15% per annum from here.</p><h3>Long-term Returns</h3><p>My 2033 price target for Tesla is $208 per share, implying a return of 5% per annum.</p><p>Tesla has earnings per share of $3.23. If it can grow that at 15% per annum, it will earn $13 per share in 2033. I&#39;ve applied a terminal multiple of 16x.</p><p>Does Tesla&#39;s Collapse Signal A New Bull Market?</p><p>A recession in 2023 is now baked into the consensus. Globally, the world is already beginning to experience rolling recessions. At the same time, investors are exceptionally pessimistic:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e666c6a5e6b8a46f7ae6082479758c6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"239\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>This usually means it&#39;s time to be contrarian and go long. All of the billions of dollars that have flowed out of Tesla stock have to go somewhere after all.</p><p>I explained in my article &#34;QQQ: An Excessive Bust Is Coming&#34; why I expect the pessimism in the technology sector to be more prolonged. The reason: George Soros has explained in the past that excessive margin, speculation, and exuberance on the upside creates excessive insolvency, fear, and selling on the downside. After the dot com bubble burst, it took 15 years for tech stocks to gain popularity again. Fifteen years is often the amount of time it takes for investors to forget about the pain inflicted when a bubble pops. After a fifteen-year stretch, earnings tend to catch up to valuations, and industries have time to fully consolidate.</p><p>Rather than looking at stocks that have &#34;gone to the moon,&#34; I&#39;m finding opportunities in stocks that have gone nowhere for 15 years. This was the case for Microsoft (MSFT) in 2013:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0b1d1bc530a801074c58a4c41b77c74\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>I believe flat indexes and stocks are now great hunting grounds for the next bull market. The key is that the fundamentals are in good shape (You don&#39;t want to buy a company that&#39;s about to go bankrupt or become obsolete). As for the market as a whole, I&#39;m seeing returns in the range of 5% per annum for the Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (VOO) and Spider S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF (SPY).</p><h3>In Conclusion</h3><p>I&#39;ve upgraded Tesla to a &#34;sell&#34; from a &#34;strong-sell.&#34; Following its collapse, Tesla may be offering a market matching return of 5% per annum. A 5% annual return is right between a &#34;sell&#34; and &#34;hold&#34; rating for me. But, because of the opportunity cost and George Soros&#39; boom-bust model, I think it&#39;s best to sell and move on. After tech stocks toppled in 2000, value stocks really took off. As Jim Cramer often exclaims, &#34;There&#39;s always a bull market somewhere.&#34; Until next time, happy investing.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's Crash Could Signal A New Bull Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's Crash Could Signal A New Bull Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-26 23:34 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566265-teslas-crash-could-signal-a-new-bull-market><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As the market transitions to more sensible valuations, there are less and less reasons to be bearish. The beginning of a recession often signals the beginning of a new bull market. I'm still not ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566265-teslas-crash-could-signal-a-new-bull-market\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566265-teslas-crash-could-signal-a-new-bull-market","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152955091","content_text":"As the market transitions to more sensible valuations, there are less and less reasons to be bearish. The beginning of a recession often signals the beginning of a new bull market. I'm still not bullish on Tesla, nor the S&P 500. But I wouldn't be short, and I wouldn't be sitting on a pile of cash at a time like this. Jim Cramer often exclaims on CNBC, \"There's always a bull market somewhere.\" This is by no means an endorsement to take advice from Jim Cramer, but I believe there are plenty of contrarian values to be bullish about as the market shifts from what was to what will be.As for Tesla, I'm not a buyer yet. In my base-case scenario, I'm seeing long-term returns of 5% per annum.Tesla's OutlookLegendary investor Sir John Templeton once told Bill Miller the following:\"There are only two types of investors, those who are outlook and trend investors and those who are price and value investors. 90% of people are outlook and trend investors.\"A year ago, the outlook for Tesla was phenomenal. The company was demonstrating explosive growth, and that growth was expected to continue. So far, it has. Tesla's net income has soared:Despite this terrific financial performance, Tesla's stock has plummeted. So, what's going on here? Well, like Sir John Templeton said, 90% of investors are \"outlook and trend investors.\" What happened was, the outlook changed. Elon's diverting his attention to Twitter, a recession looms, and Tesla's market share is shrinking. These are all things I warned about five months ago. They're coming to light.As for the market share, Forbes said it best:\"Tesla continues to dominate EV sales, with 65.4% of the EV market. However, that is down from 68.2% in 2021 and 79.4% in 2020. With the market growing, Tesla is still rapidly growing its vehicle sales despite its loss of market share.\"That's U.S. market share, by the way. Globally, Tesla has an EV market share of roughly 14%.Another issue for Tesla is that every automaker globally now wants in on EVs. And of course they do, EV stocks have soared and traditional automaker's stocks haven't. In addition, Tesla's displayed remarkable profitability selling EVs. This is simply how capitalism works; when an industry gets hot, everyone rushes in. Once everyone's rushed in, the profits get squeezed because there's more competition.Now, looking at Tesla. The company maintains the premium product. Tesla's customer satisfaction scores are industry leading. Tesla had a first-mover advantage, and its technology is just better at this point. Elon did a terrific job of building Tesla's brand in a brutally competitive auto market.One thing to note on the customer satisfaction scores: that's just for EVs. Newsweek recently found that buyers of internal-combustion vehicles are more satisfied than EV buyers:Tesla's Future GrowthThe number of electric vehicles sold globally is projected to grow at 17% per annum through to 2027. Tesla has an opportunity to grow its autonomous drive, EV semis, and energy generation businesses at rates exceeding 17%. But, because 95% of Tesla's revenue comes from the automotive arm, where Tesla is losing share, I expect the company to grow its earnings at a slower pace.The other issue I'm seeing is the cyclicality of the auto market. Nearing the peak of the cycle, Tesla's never before been this profitable:These kinds of profit margins and return on assets numbers are far beyond industry averages and will be difficult to maintain over the next 10 years as competitors catch up on a technological basis.All things considered, I'm projecting earnings to grow at a pace of 15% per annum from here.Long-term ReturnsMy 2033 price target for Tesla is $208 per share, implying a return of 5% per annum.Tesla has earnings per share of $3.23. If it can grow that at 15% per annum, it will earn $13 per share in 2033. I've applied a terminal multiple of 16x.Does Tesla's Collapse Signal A New Bull Market?A recession in 2023 is now baked into the consensus. Globally, the world is already beginning to experience rolling recessions. At the same time, investors are exceptionally pessimistic:This usually means it's time to be contrarian and go long. All of the billions of dollars that have flowed out of Tesla stock have to go somewhere after all.I explained in my article \"QQQ: An Excessive Bust Is Coming\" why I expect the pessimism in the technology sector to be more prolonged. The reason: George Soros has explained in the past that excessive margin, speculation, and exuberance on the upside creates excessive insolvency, fear, and selling on the downside. After the dot com bubble burst, it took 15 years for tech stocks to gain popularity again. Fifteen years is often the amount of time it takes for investors to forget about the pain inflicted when a bubble pops. After a fifteen-year stretch, earnings tend to catch up to valuations, and industries have time to fully consolidate.Rather than looking at stocks that have \"gone to the moon,\" I'm finding opportunities in stocks that have gone nowhere for 15 years. This was the case for Microsoft (MSFT) in 2013:I believe flat indexes and stocks are now great hunting grounds for the next bull market. The key is that the fundamentals are in good shape (You don't want to buy a company that's about to go bankrupt or become obsolete). As for the market as a whole, I'm seeing returns in the range of 5% per annum for the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) and Spider S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY).In ConclusionI've upgraded Tesla to a \"sell\" from a \"strong-sell.\" Following its collapse, Tesla may be offering a market matching return of 5% per annum. A 5% annual return is right between a \"sell\" and \"hold\" rating for me. But, because of the opportunity cost and George Soros' boom-bust model, I think it's best to sell and move on. After tech stocks toppled in 2000, value stocks really took off. As Jim Cramer often exclaims, \"There's always a bull market somewhere.\" Until next time, happy investing.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9925441710,"gmtCreate":1672100440330,"gmtModify":1676538633383,"author":{"id":"3574500206068120","authorId":"3574500206068120","name":"Kenwen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e40d46e852addbb8143debd4343a58c","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f84d87792f02cf78e80ee34979fd31e5","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3574500206068120","authorIdStr":"3574500206068120"},"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9925441710","repostId":1152955091,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152955091","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1672068846,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1152955091?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-26 23:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla's Crash Could Signal A New Bull Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152955091","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"As the market transitions to more sensible valuations, there are less and less reasons to be bearish","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>As the market transitions to more sensible valuations, there are less and less reasons to be bearish. The beginning of a recession often signals the beginning of a new bull market. I&#39;m still not bullish on Tesla, nor the S&amp;P 500. But I wouldn&#39;t be short, and I wouldn&#39;t be sitting on a pile of cash at a time like this. Jim Cramer often exclaims on CNBC, &#34;There&#39;s always a bull market somewhere.&#34; This is by no means an endorsement to take advice from Jim Cramer, but I believe there are plenty of contrarian values to be bullish about as the market shifts from what was to what will be.</p><p>As for Tesla, I&#39;m not a buyer yet. In my base-case scenario, I&#39;m seeing long-term returns of 5% per annum.</p><h3>Tesla&#39;s Outlook</h3><p>Legendary investor Sir John Templeton once told Bill Miller the following:</p><p>&#34;There are only two types of investors, those who are outlook and trend investors and those who are price and value investors. 90% of people are outlook and trend investors.&#34;</p><p>A year ago, the outlook for Tesla was phenomenal. The company was demonstrating explosive growth, and that growth was expected to continue. So far, it has. Tesla&#39;s net income has soared:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fba100e8982cd53633e2922445131c56\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Despite this terrific financial performance, Tesla&#39;s stock has plummeted. So, what&#39;s going on here? Well, like Sir John Templeton said, 90% of investors are &#34;outlook and trend investors.&#34; What happened was, the outlook changed. Elon&#39;s diverting his attention to Twitter, a recession looms, and Tesla&#39;s market share is shrinking. These are all things I warned about five months ago. They&#39;re coming to light.</p><p>As for the market share, Forbes said it best:</p><p>&#34;Tesla continues to dominate EV sales, with 65.4% of the EV market. However, that is down from 68.2% in 2021 and 79.4% in 2020. With the market growing, Tesla is still rapidly growing its vehicle sales despite its loss of market share.&#34;</p><p>That&#39;s U.S. market share, by the way. Globally, Tesla has an EV market share of roughly 14%.</p><p>Another issue for Tesla is that every automaker globally now wants in on EVs. And of course they do, EV stocks have soared and traditional automaker&#39;s stocks haven&#39;t. In addition, Tesla&#39;s displayed remarkable profitability selling EVs. This is simply how capitalism works; when an industry gets hot, everyone rushes in. Once everyone&#39;s rushed in, the profits get squeezed because there&#39;s more competition.</p><p>Now, looking at Tesla. The company maintains the premium product. Tesla&#39;s customer satisfaction scores are industry leading. Tesla had a first-mover advantage, and its technology is just better at this point. Elon did a terrific job of building Tesla&#39;s brand in a brutally competitive auto market.</p><p>One thing to note on the customer satisfaction scores: that&#39;s just for EVs. Newsweek recently found that buyers of internal-combustion vehicles are more satisfied than EV buyers:</p><h3><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fbc8c1f4dbd2317e3869d3baa82c71d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"146\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Tesla&#39;s Future Growth</h3><p>The number of electric vehicles sold globally is projected to grow at 17% per annum through to 2027. Tesla has an opportunity to grow its autonomous drive, EV semis, and energy generation businesses at rates exceeding 17%. But, because 95% of Tesla&#39;s revenue comes from the automotive arm, where Tesla is losing share, I expect the company to grow its earnings at a slower pace.</p><p>The other issue I&#39;m seeing is the cyclicality of the auto market. Nearing the peak of the cycle, Tesla&#39;s never before been this profitable:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e3b58724f2aa85e9e67975a8a420129\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>These kinds of profit margins and return on assets numbers are far beyond industry averages and will be difficult to maintain over the next 10 years as competitors catch up on a technological basis.</p><p>All things considered, I&#39;m projecting earnings to grow at a pace of 15% per annum from here.</p><h3>Long-term Returns</h3><p>My 2033 price target for Tesla is $208 per share, implying a return of 5% per annum.</p><p>Tesla has earnings per share of $3.23. If it can grow that at 15% per annum, it will earn $13 per share in 2033. I&#39;ve applied a terminal multiple of 16x.</p><p>Does Tesla&#39;s Collapse Signal A New Bull Market?</p><p>A recession in 2023 is now baked into the consensus. Globally, the world is already beginning to experience rolling recessions. At the same time, investors are exceptionally pessimistic:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e666c6a5e6b8a46f7ae6082479758c6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"239\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>This usually means it&#39;s time to be contrarian and go long. All of the billions of dollars that have flowed out of Tesla stock have to go somewhere after all.</p><p>I explained in my article &#34;QQQ: An Excessive Bust Is Coming&#34; why I expect the pessimism in the technology sector to be more prolonged. The reason: George Soros has explained in the past that excessive margin, speculation, and exuberance on the upside creates excessive insolvency, fear, and selling on the downside. After the dot com bubble burst, it took 15 years for tech stocks to gain popularity again. Fifteen years is often the amount of time it takes for investors to forget about the pain inflicted when a bubble pops. After a fifteen-year stretch, earnings tend to catch up to valuations, and industries have time to fully consolidate.</p><p>Rather than looking at stocks that have &#34;gone to the moon,&#34; I&#39;m finding opportunities in stocks that have gone nowhere for 15 years. This was the case for Microsoft (MSFT) in 2013:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0b1d1bc530a801074c58a4c41b77c74\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>I believe flat indexes and stocks are now great hunting grounds for the next bull market. The key is that the fundamentals are in good shape (You don&#39;t want to buy a company that&#39;s about to go bankrupt or become obsolete). As for the market as a whole, I&#39;m seeing returns in the range of 5% per annum for the Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (VOO) and Spider S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF (SPY).</p><h3>In Conclusion</h3><p>I&#39;ve upgraded Tesla to a &#34;sell&#34; from a &#34;strong-sell.&#34; Following its collapse, Tesla may be offering a market matching return of 5% per annum. A 5% annual return is right between a &#34;sell&#34; and &#34;hold&#34; rating for me. But, because of the opportunity cost and George Soros&#39; boom-bust model, I think it&#39;s best to sell and move on. After tech stocks toppled in 2000, value stocks really took off. As Jim Cramer often exclaims, &#34;There&#39;s always a bull market somewhere.&#34; Until next time, happy investing.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's Crash Could Signal A New Bull Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's Crash Could Signal A New Bull Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-26 23:34 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566265-teslas-crash-could-signal-a-new-bull-market><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As the market transitions to more sensible valuations, there are less and less reasons to be bearish. The beginning of a recession often signals the beginning of a new bull market. I'm still not ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566265-teslas-crash-could-signal-a-new-bull-market\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566265-teslas-crash-could-signal-a-new-bull-market","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152955091","content_text":"As the market transitions to more sensible valuations, there are less and less reasons to be bearish. The beginning of a recession often signals the beginning of a new bull market. I'm still not bullish on Tesla, nor the S&P 500. But I wouldn't be short, and I wouldn't be sitting on a pile of cash at a time like this. Jim Cramer often exclaims on CNBC, \"There's always a bull market somewhere.\" This is by no means an endorsement to take advice from Jim Cramer, but I believe there are plenty of contrarian values to be bullish about as the market shifts from what was to what will be.As for Tesla, I'm not a buyer yet. In my base-case scenario, I'm seeing long-term returns of 5% per annum.Tesla's OutlookLegendary investor Sir John Templeton once told Bill Miller the following:\"There are only two types of investors, those who are outlook and trend investors and those who are price and value investors. 90% of people are outlook and trend investors.\"A year ago, the outlook for Tesla was phenomenal. The company was demonstrating explosive growth, and that growth was expected to continue. So far, it has. Tesla's net income has soared:Despite this terrific financial performance, Tesla's stock has plummeted. So, what's going on here? Well, like Sir John Templeton said, 90% of investors are \"outlook and trend investors.\" What happened was, the outlook changed. Elon's diverting his attention to Twitter, a recession looms, and Tesla's market share is shrinking. These are all things I warned about five months ago. They're coming to light.As for the market share, Forbes said it best:\"Tesla continues to dominate EV sales, with 65.4% of the EV market. However, that is down from 68.2% in 2021 and 79.4% in 2020. With the market growing, Tesla is still rapidly growing its vehicle sales despite its loss of market share.\"That's U.S. market share, by the way. Globally, Tesla has an EV market share of roughly 14%.Another issue for Tesla is that every automaker globally now wants in on EVs. And of course they do, EV stocks have soared and traditional automaker's stocks haven't. In addition, Tesla's displayed remarkable profitability selling EVs. This is simply how capitalism works; when an industry gets hot, everyone rushes in. Once everyone's rushed in, the profits get squeezed because there's more competition.Now, looking at Tesla. The company maintains the premium product. Tesla's customer satisfaction scores are industry leading. Tesla had a first-mover advantage, and its technology is just better at this point. Elon did a terrific job of building Tesla's brand in a brutally competitive auto market.One thing to note on the customer satisfaction scores: that's just for EVs. Newsweek recently found that buyers of internal-combustion vehicles are more satisfied than EV buyers:Tesla's Future GrowthThe number of electric vehicles sold globally is projected to grow at 17% per annum through to 2027. Tesla has an opportunity to grow its autonomous drive, EV semis, and energy generation businesses at rates exceeding 17%. But, because 95% of Tesla's revenue comes from the automotive arm, where Tesla is losing share, I expect the company to grow its earnings at a slower pace.The other issue I'm seeing is the cyclicality of the auto market. Nearing the peak of the cycle, Tesla's never before been this profitable:These kinds of profit margins and return on assets numbers are far beyond industry averages and will be difficult to maintain over the next 10 years as competitors catch up on a technological basis.All things considered, I'm projecting earnings to grow at a pace of 15% per annum from here.Long-term ReturnsMy 2033 price target for Tesla is $208 per share, implying a return of 5% per annum.Tesla has earnings per share of $3.23. If it can grow that at 15% per annum, it will earn $13 per share in 2033. I've applied a terminal multiple of 16x.Does Tesla's Collapse Signal A New Bull Market?A recession in 2023 is now baked into the consensus. Globally, the world is already beginning to experience rolling recessions. At the same time, investors are exceptionally pessimistic:This usually means it's time to be contrarian and go long. All of the billions of dollars that have flowed out of Tesla stock have to go somewhere after all.I explained in my article \"QQQ: An Excessive Bust Is Coming\" why I expect the pessimism in the technology sector to be more prolonged. The reason: George Soros has explained in the past that excessive margin, speculation, and exuberance on the upside creates excessive insolvency, fear, and selling on the downside. After the dot com bubble burst, it took 15 years for tech stocks to gain popularity again. Fifteen years is often the amount of time it takes for investors to forget about the pain inflicted when a bubble pops. After a fifteen-year stretch, earnings tend to catch up to valuations, and industries have time to fully consolidate.Rather than looking at stocks that have \"gone to the moon,\" I'm finding opportunities in stocks that have gone nowhere for 15 years. This was the case for Microsoft (MSFT) in 2013:I believe flat indexes and stocks are now great hunting grounds for the next bull market. The key is that the fundamentals are in good shape (You don't want to buy a company that's about to go bankrupt or become obsolete). As for the market as a whole, I'm seeing returns in the range of 5% per annum for the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) and Spider S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY).In ConclusionI've upgraded Tesla to a \"sell\" from a \"strong-sell.\" Following its collapse, Tesla may be offering a market matching return of 5% per annum. A 5% annual return is right between a \"sell\" and \"hold\" rating for me. But, because of the opportunity cost and George Soros' boom-bust model, I think it's best to sell and move on. After tech stocks toppled in 2000, value stocks really took off. As Jim Cramer often exclaims, \"There's always a bull market somewhere.\" Until next time, happy investing.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":105350477,"gmtCreate":1672102562607,"gmtModify":1672102575480,"authorId":3565579816305782,"author":{"id":3565579816305782,"idStr":"3565579816305782","authorId":3565579816305782,"name":"wenjin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5a7509809f1dc972f0b5c45604f9b90","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9925441710,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>K</u>","text":"<u>K</u>","html":"<u>K</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":587,"commentSize":68,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":3,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1152955091"}