ASML: Don't Let The Headlines Fool You

seekingalpha2022-04-28

SummaryASML reported earnings last week, and they were good… for long-term-oriented investors.The market’s reaction was positive, although the stock got carried away by negative broad market sentiment...

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俊俊君
2022-04-28
俊俊君
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And even if the demand weakens, there's a big gap between the demand and our capacity.Peter Wennink (ASML's CEO) on Q12022 Earnings CallIntroductionASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ:ASML) reported earnings last week. Even though the company managed to beat on the top and bottom, the quarterly results were not that great on the surface. However, we don’t just look at the headline numbers. If we dig deeper into the earnings release, they were pretty encouraging for long-term-oriented shareholders.Much of the focus of the release was on the long term, and we think this is positive for two reasons:It’s what we should care about if we are long term investorsIt’s great to see management so focused on the company's long-term rather than impressing over the short term: this aligns management’s investment horizon with that of long term investors.There’s a lot to talk about, but I’ll go over the market’s reaction before digging directly into the numbers.Without further ado, let’s get started!The Market’s ReactionASML trades both in Europe (Amsterdam Stock Market) and the U.S. Due to the company’s origin (it’s Dutch), it released earnings early in Europe while most U.S. investors were still asleep. The European ticker had an excellent reaction to earnings, ending the day +3.75%:Made by Best Anchor Stocks with data from Yahoo FinanceThe stock was up more than 6% at one point.If we now look at the U.S. ticker, the picture is different. The stock opened up around 6%, mirroring the performance of the European ticker, but it soon started to decrease:YChartsWe highly doubt the earnings call caused the decrease, as it was much more positive than the earnings release itself. If we look at ASML’s performance that day against the performance of the Nasdaq, we can see that the selloff was probably caused by broad market sentiment rather than something company-specific:YChartsThe trend in Nasdaq and ASML’s stock is almost identical. The lousy performance of the U.S. ticker spread to the European ticker, as both tickers mirror each other (otherwise, there would be arbitrage opportunities). In fact, the European ticker started its decline as soon as the U.S. stock market opened (the U.S. stock market opens at 3.30 pm here in Europe):Google FinanceWe shouldn’t focus on price action, but it’s always interesting to try to understand what the market thinks about our holdings. That way, we might be able to understand what the market focuses on and see how it compares to what we think about the company.So, how can a company that was 6% up in Europe end up “only” 2.7% in the U.S. due to a broad market selloff? The quick answer is that it makes absolutely no sense at all. Even though there are two tickers, the underlying company is the same. This shows how over the short term everything will sell off in a broad market selloff, no matter the underlying results.To be honest, we can’t complain because we have an additional data point with the earnings release, and the market is giving us the company for the same price or even lower. This is an excellent setup for long-term investors, and I hope you’ll understand why after reading this article.Now let’s jump into what we should be interested in: the results.The NumbersThe Headline ResultsASML beat the top and bottom lines, but not by a wide margin, so we would say that the company posted in-line headline results. Revenue came in at €3.5 billion, beating estimates by €20 million. On the other hand, EPS came in at €1.73, beating estimates by €0.05:Made by Best Anchor StocksOf course, seeing the company beat is great. However, when it comes to ASML, we should be cautious when analyzing its quarterly performance. This is because a portion of the company’s revenue is recurring, but most of it (net system sales) is product-based revenue. This means that revenue in any quarter depends on the timing of the product sales, and more so on the recognition of revenue for these sales.This is not a SaaS business where revenue is more predictable. Don’t get us wrong, ASML can be “predictable,” but this is simply impossible in the current supply chain environment.Quarterly Year-Over-Year Comparisons Can Be Very MisleadingBeats in the top and bottom are always good news, but if we look at year-over-year comparisons, we might think ASML posted a disastrous quarter. Net sales were down 19% YOY, and EPS were down 46% YOY:Made by Best Anchor StocksSomeone with no context on ASML might see this and think that things are not going well, but this is just part of the game when you invest in a product-based business with long sales cycles facing supply chain constraints. In fact, if we look at quarterly net sales over a longer time frame, we can see that volatility has increased substantially since the supply chain crisis has put pressure on the company:Made by Best Anchor StocksIf you know the company well by now, we are sure that you will not fall into making year-over-year comparisons of quarterly results at least until the supply side constraints subside. However, even then, these comparisons might be misleading. Don’t get me wrong, we should make year-over-year comparisons, but of the yearly results, not quarterly!Breaking Down Net SalesWe have already gone through the top and bottom lines of the company, but, of course, there’s much more going on for ASML under the surface when it comes to sales. The first distinction we have to make is between Net System Sales and Installed Based Management sales. Net system sales were €2.3 billion, while Installed Based Management sales were €1.2 billion:Made by Best Anchor StocksBoth streams are related because Installed Based Management depends on how many systems ASML can sell, although it’s much more recurrent in nature, which is also nice.The €2.3 billion revenue from system sales was divided equally across logic (50%) and memory (50%) customers and included the sale of 3 EUV systems. Now, this doesn’t mean that ASML “only” shipped 3 EUV systems; it means that it was only able to recognize revenue for 3. The company managed to ship 9 EUV systems, but the revenue of 6 of these was deferred to Q2 due to the fast shipments.It’s essential to understand the company’s revenue recognition process because it’s one of the main reasons net system sales are expected to be considerably volatile during the supply chain crisis. ASML has two main “revenue recognition paths,” the normal process and fast shipments. The latter came as a consequence of the current chip shortage:Made by Best Anchor StocksFast shipments were the main cause why Q1 revenue came out apparently low, and we should expect much higher revenue in Q2 once the deferred revenue is recognized. We’ll talk about this later when we go over guidance.Bookings, the leading indicatorWith such a volatile sales metric due to supply constraints, it’s pretty challenging to make sense of demand trends. However, we have a metric that helps us with this: bookings.“Bookings” is a leading indicator of revenue because it’s the monetary measure of the order backlog. ASML gets plenty of orders for its systems that it can’t satisfy straight away, so these get counted in bookings but not in revenue, as revenue is recognized once the system is ready to use at the customer’s site.Bookings came in at €29 billion, an all-time high. Just in Q1 alone, the company managed to add €7 billion in bookings, which is more than 50% of all last year’s system revenue (€13.6 billion):Made by Best Anchor StocksThe net €7 billion addition in bookings comes from strong demand from logic customers (64% of the net addition) and strong demand from memory customers (36%). €2.5 billion (36%) of the net addition comes directly from EUV orders, both low and high-NA. I will not talk here about high-NA because I am saving it for later.Let’s do some quick calculations with bookings that will help us understand the importance of this metric. Simply put, €29 billion in bookings means that the company will be able to recognize €29 billion in revenue in the coming years without needing to add one single extra order. Of course, this also considers that no order gets canceled.Considering that this year’s system sales are expected to come in at around €17 billion, it means that ASML will still have €12 billion left in its order book. Again, assuming that not one single additional order is accepted and nothing is canceled. This is quite compelling if you ask us. Here we have a company that is able to generate a year and a half worth of revenue if it directly fired its sales team and didn’t accept additional orders.Of course, it’s important to take into account that, from the remaining €12 billion that would hypothetically be left in the order book, not all can be recognized next year because some of it belongs to high-NA EUV, which will not go into high volume manufacturing until 2025.It’s undeniable that, from a top-line perspective, we should expect healthy growth for the years to come. However, there was what appears to be a “pull-forward” of demand in 2021 if you look at the bookings chart. This is true (partly), but this is also a consequence of EUV going into high volume manufacturing and the need for more advanced chip nodes.Breaking Down Profitability - Swimming In A Rough SeaProfitability will most likely be the focus of many investors for almost all companies during this earnings season. Rising inflation creates increased pressure on profitability. After this earnings season, it will become quite evident what companies are able to swim through the current situation without suffering significant margin contraction.ASML’s gross profit margin came in at 49% this quarter, which is a considerable decrease both on a year-over-year and on a sequential basis:Made by Best Anchor StocksGross margin was impacted by inflation, supply chain constraints, and the current macroeconomic situation. These events increased wages, components, and freight and energy costs, which lowered gross margin. However, the impact that management expects over the full year is much lower than we would’ve expected for such a component-intensive business:We clearly see pressure on margins due to these cost increases, which we expect to translate roughly to a 1% impact on gross margin for full year 2022.Source: Roger Dassen (ASML CFO) in Q1 2022 Earnings CallBeing a component-intensive business, ASML is more impacted by rising costs than a software business that is mostly impacted by wage inflation.The fact that such a tight supply chain and inflationary environment is expected to leave gross margins mostly unchanged speaks very well about management’s ability to weather tough environments and about the company’s pricing power.When it comes to net margin, it came in at 20%. This is also a significant decline both on a year-over-year basis and on a sequential basis:Made by Best Anchor StocksTwo things caused this decrease in quarterly net margin, none of which are really worrying. The first one is quite obvious. The lower gross margin that we just looked at was passed through to the bottom line.The second one is also quite straightforward. The company’s operational costs are divided between R&D (Research and development) and SG&A (Selling, General, and Administrative). These costs should be mostly treated as fixed costs because they don’t rely on the top line activity in any quarter. ASML will spend the same on R&D regardless of sales volatility, as this is an integral part of its long-term strategy. This means that when sales are lower, the negative effect on net margin is expected to be high. The same way that if sales are higher than expected in any quarter, net margin should come out higher than expected too.Quarterly margins weren’t great, of course. But again, we should look at these metrics yearly, and the fact that management expects only a slight margin contraction with respect to last year amidst such a tough environment is encouraging.Cash Flow Is Yet Another Metric To Track On A Yearly BasisWe have already gone over three important metrics of the earnings release: sales, bookings, and margins. However, there’s still one more metric that should be really important for us, shareholders: Cash Flow.Recall that Cash Flow is the money that the business is actually making. Net income is a good indicator too, but it’s an accounting metric, and it can be adjusted up or down with accounting trickery. Adjusting cash flow at management’s will is much more complex.However, we have a similar landscape when discussing quarterly cash flows and sales and earnings: they are very volatile. CapEx is more or less stable, so we’ll go directly with Free Cash Flow. Look at the volatility:Made by Best Anchor StocksOf course, if we look at the yearly metrics, the graph looks totally different:Made by Best Anchor StocksNow, we must also be cautious in interpreting annual cash flow. As you can see, there was a massive jump in FCF in 2021. This was partially caused by service fees that many of the company’s customers are paying to secure the future supply for advanced systems, such as high-NA. Even though this is money that ASML is making, we shouldn’t consider it recurrent in nature as most of it is probably fueled by current supply constraints.We would like to give you some conclusions about this metric, but the truth is that we have to wait until Q4 to have more visibility. We can only say that cash flow tends to be consistently negative in Q1, so we shouldn’t be worried by the sign of this number.The other thing that you should always take into account when analyzing cash flow is that ASML, even if it’s not evident, is not a capital-intensive business. The company has averaged a CapEx/Revenue ratio of 6% over the last 9 quarters. This is only possible because it’s actually the company’s suppliers who bare most of the CapEx spending.All in all, it was an in-line quarter in which the main numerical highlight was bookings, which is a leading indicator. The best news came without a doubt from the qualitative highlights. Let’s go over them.The Qualitative HighlightsCapacity Expansion Plan Driven By Strong DemandOne of the most exciting things about the earnings release was the capacity expansion plan. ASML has a problem of supply rather than demand. The company’s demand is so high that it can’t satisfy all of it. Of course, this is great, but it can also be dangerous.Not being able to satisfy demand because it’s very high is a good problem to have…as long as it doesn’t last forever. Management is working on capacity expansion, but it’s not easy. ASML relies on thousands of suppliers to build its systems, so if ASML wants to expand capacity, it must talk closely with them to see if they will be able to expand it too.Capacity expansions per se are not news, as management has already been talking about these plans for a long time. However, this quarter, management said that it’s talking with all of its suppliers to take these capacity expansion plans to a whole new level. The previous plan was to expand capacity to 375 DUV systems and 70 EUV low-NA systems by 2025. Now, management is studying the feasibility of expanding capacity to 600 DUV systems, 90 low-NA EUV by 2025, and 20 high-NA EUV systems over the medium term:Is it feasible for ourselves and for the supply chain to get to a capacity for low-NA EUV by 2025 of 90 units and DUV of 600 units?Source: Roger Dassen (ASML CFO) onEarnings SummaryMade by Best Anchor StocksNow, it’s important to set our expectations accordingly. Does this new capacity expansion plan mean that management expects to sell 600 DUV systems and 90 EUV systems in 2025? Not at all. Management is expanding capacity due to the strong demand they are currently seeing, which they expect to continue at least during the next decade, but it’s not a sales guidance:Bear in mind that this translates to what we currently feel our maximum capacity goal should be and may therefore not be a final output plan.Source: Peter Wennink (ASML CEO) during Q1 2022 Earnings CallThe fact that management is reviewing its capacity expansion plan upward is great. However, the best thing is that it will not come with significantly increased CapEx, as most of it will be borne by ASML’s suppliers.We still don’t know if the new capacity expansion plan is achievable, but we should know this during the second half of the year, as well as management’s take on long-term demand.EUV High-NAWe also got some updates on EUV high-NA, ASML’s most advanced EUV system expected to go into high volume manufacturing around 2025. On the technology side, the company has already started integrating the first system in its cleanroom in Veldhoven.On the sales side, there were multiple orders for high-NA in Q1 and also in April. These orders come from three logic customers (probably TSMC, Intel, and Samsung) and two memory customers. It’s great to see how high-NA EUV is gaining traction and how memory customers are also starting to pre-order these leading-edge systems.Remember that EUV is important for ASML for several reasons. On the one hand, ASML has a monopoly in EUV, so as customers shift to EUV for manufacturing, ASML gets all the dollars. Secondly, systems increase in price with complexity, so the more widespread adoption EUV systems gain, the more it should boost ASML’s top-line simply from a pricing perspective. And lastly, more complex machines will inevitably bring higher installed base revenue, which is great because it’s recurring.GuidanceGuidance is also an essential part of the earnings release. Once we have already seen what the company reported this quarter, we should immediately analyze what management expects going forward. Remember that markets are forward-looking too, so they focus on guidance much more than on earnings most of the time.In ASML’s case, we got an update on Q2 guidance and longer-term guidance.Q2 Guidance - Evidencing Sales VolatilityRemember that we already said that we shouldn’t focus too much on quarterly performance because of how volatile it is. Q2 guidance is simply an example of this.Management expects Q2 revenue to be between €5.1 to €5.3 billion, which excludes €800 million of revenue that is delayed to Q3 due to fast shipments. At the midpoint, this would be a YOY growth of around 29%:Made by Best Anchor StocksSee what we mean? Sales decreased 19% this quarter, but next quarter, they are expected to increase by almost 30% (at the midpoint of guidance). Does this mean that this was a bad quarter and the next quarter will be great? Not at all, quarterly volatility is just inherent to ASML's business model.Gross margin for the quarter is expected to lie around 49% and 50%, more or less in line with what the company had this quarter.Full-Year Guidance - Posting Strong Growth On Top Of Strong GrowthDemand is expected to stay strong for the full year, so management expects it to be a supply-constrained year. Despite all the significant challenges the company is facing, full-year revenue is expected to grow 20%:Made by Best Anchor StocksWe have to put this 20% YOY growth into context. First, it’s facing pretty tough comps because the company grew revenue by 33% in 2021. And secondly, we must take into account that it excludes some revenue that will be deferred to 2023 due to fast shipments. So, while 20% is definitely a good number, under the surface, it is even better.Management expects to ship 55 EUV systems, although it will not recognize revenue for all this year. EUV revenue is expected to come in at €7.8 billion, which is 25% higher than last year. On the other hand, non-EUV (DUV, metrology and inspection…) revenue is expected to come in 20% higher than last year. The installed base business will grow around 10%:Made by Best Anchor StocksThis top-line growth will be driven by strong memory (+25% YOY) and logic (+20% YOY) demand. It’s also worth noting that management expects strong demand from both advanced nodes (those that EUV and immersion DUV satisfy) and mature nodes (those that less advanced systems satisfy, such as dry DUV). Mature node demand is coming from analog chips:In addition to advanced nodes, we see growing demand for deep UV systems supporting mature market segments, such as analog, power, and sensors.Source: Peter Wennink (ASML's CEO) during the Q1 2022 Earnings CallWhen it comes to profitability, management expects (as we already mentioned) a 1% impact on Gross Margin, which should be around 52% for the full year. Considering that Q1 and Q2 will bring around 49% gross margins overall, we should expect margin expansion throughout the second half of the year which will be mainly driven by volume.ConclusionWe hope this article helped you understand ASML’s Q1 2022 Earnings better. We should always dig deeper than the headline numbers because the underlying story will often tell a different tale than the numbers. We need full context always to interpret the headline results.In the meantime, keep growing!","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9060288064,"gmtCreate":1651154526946,"gmtModify":1676534859973,"author":{"id":"3562131140725509","authorId":"3562131140725509","name":"俊俊君","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e675a586e1b57f0e059b5949f52b4824","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3562131140725509","idStr":"3562131140725509"},"htmlText":"👍&nbsp;","listText":"👍&nbsp;","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9060288064","repostId":1153005170,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":36,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.1","shortVersion":"4.29.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1153005170"}