Spot gold: On November 4, gold spiked higher overnight before pulling back, with spot gold settling around $3,930 per ounce. Intraday, it fell to near $3,895 before a modest recovery. Morning quotes fluctuated around $3,928–$3,930, with the short term still in a low-level repair phase. The overnight weakness in gold was driven mainly by rebounding oil prices and a stronger US dollar and Treasury yields; the higher-than-expected US September JOLTS job openings also reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a tight policy stance. Technically, the daily moving averages are in a bearish alignment, capping gains, and the rebound currently looks more like a technical correction than a trend reversal. The 4-hour moving averages continue to suppress the rebound, with MACD below the zero line; bearish momentum has slowed but no reversal has formed. The $3,870 level is this cycle's low and a key psychological threshold—a decisive break below would reopen downside room. The $3,900 area is the first short-term line of defense. The $3,970–$3,980 zone is where gold spiked and pulled back last night, and above that is the $4,000 round number. This week is employment data week, with Friday's nonfarm payrolls as the main event; before the data lands, range-bound wash trading between $3,890 and $3,980 is expected to dominate. Short term (intraday swing): aggressive short at $3,955/65, conservative short at $3,995/05, target $3,900 and hold on a break! Aggressive long at $3,905/95, conservative long at $3,882/72, target $3,960 and hold on a break! [GOLD dividing line: $3,900 per ounce! The above analysis is merely a deduction of market logic and does not constitute investment advice.]
WTI crude oil: Overnight, WTI crude oil settled at $96.09 per barrel, down 0.38%, while Brent crude settled at $103.60 per barrel, down 1.12%. After a sharp earlier decline, oil prices entered a phase of range-bound repair in the morning. API data showed that US crude inventories fell by 5.267 million barrels last week, far exceeding market expectations for a build of 1.987 million barrels, providing some support for oil prices; however, Cushing inventories rose by 511,000 barrels and gasoline inventories increased by 1.427 million barrels, so the structure was not entirely bullish. On the fundamentals, US-Iran negotiations continue to advance, and the geopolitical risk premium has eased for now, but differences between the two sides remain wide, and shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz have not been eliminated. OPEC+ maintaining production cuts and low global inventories continue to provide bottom support. Technically, WTI is fluctuating around $96 in the short term, with the $97–$98 area as upside resistance and $95–$94 as downside support. A break below $94 could open the way for a further decline. Short term (intraday swing): aggressive short at $98.0/98.5, conservative short at $99.5/100.0, target $95.0 and hold on a break! Aggressive long at $95.2/94.7, conservative long at $92.4/91.8, target $98.0 and hold on a break! [WTI dividing line: $95.0 per barrel! Note: The above is market deduction and does not constitute definitive buy or sell advice.]
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