Goldman Sachs stated on Monday that it expects a larger surplus in the global copper market in 2026 and has lowered its price projections, citing weak demand growth driven by an energy-induced global economic slowdown.
The bank now forecasts a refined copper surplus of 490,000 tonnes in 2026, up from a previous estimate of 380,000 tonnes. It has also reduced its average copper price forecast for 2026 from $12,850 per tonne to $12,650 per tonne.
Goldman Sachs has revised down its global refined copper demand growth expectation for 2026 from 2.0% to 1.6%. This adjustment follows estimates by the bank’s economists that rising energy prices could reduce global GDP growth by 0.4 percentage points.
The bank noted that copper demand remains more resilient than that of other metals, reflecting copper’s increasingly important strategic and structural role.
With production assumptions unchanged, weaker demand prospects are expected to lead to a significant inventory buildup. Markets outside the U.S. are projected to approach a supply-demand balance, prompting a downward revision of nearly 2 percentage points in year-on-year price changes.
In the near term, Goldman Sachs expects copper prices to remain volatile as markets assess the impact of Middle East tensions on economic growth.
Assuming energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz resume by mid-April and the Federal Reserve implements two interest rate cuts later this year, the bank predicts copper prices will average $12,700 per tonne in the second quarter of 2026, before declining to a fair value of $12,000 by the second half of the year.
Goldman Sachs warned that if disruptions in energy transit via the Strait of Hormuz persist, energy prices could rise further, further weighing on economic growth, with risks tilted to the downside.
Looking beyond 2026–2027, the bank maintains its view that copper prices could rise to $15,000 per tonne by 2035, as supply bottlenecks emerge and demand accelerates due to electrification and grid investment.
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