Gf Securities Co.,Ltd. has released a research report stating that the autonomous driving industry is at a critical stage where technology, policy, and commercialization are evolving simultaneously. The development logic has shifted from early-stage technology exploration to large-scale penetration and commercial performance realization.
On the technology front, end-to-end large models are continuously optimizing autonomous driving solutions. Combined with price reductions in core hardware like LiDAR and in-vehicle computing power, L2+ advanced driver-assistance systems are accelerating their普及, while the maturity of L3 and L4 technologies is steadily improving. On the policy side, China's tiered regulatory framework for autonomous driving is being refined, with the approval of L3 models for market access and the mutual recognition of cross-city permits progressing. This is laying a solid compliance foundation for the large-scale operation of high-level autonomous driving. On the industrial front, high-level autonomous driving in passenger vehicles is increasingly penetrating urban scenarios. Three major L4 commercial scenarios are being deployed at different levels, and industry competition is escalating into a full-chain competition involving data, computing power, mass production, and operations.
The primary views of Gf Securities Co.,Ltd. are as follows:
Robotaxi: The industry's compliance framework continues to improve, with leading companies being the first to validate profitable business models, initiating a new phase of global expansion. Various tiered and classified pilot permits are being granted globally, and mutual recognition of cross-regional testing permits is gradually breaking down geographical barriers. However, the pace of operational approval has slowed due to safety incidents. Technologically, the industry has formed a parallel landscape of multi-sensor fusion and pure vision routes. Iterations in pre-installed mass production and the localization of hardware components are continuously driving down the per-vehicle cost. From a market perspective, the commercialization capabilities of major companies are diverging significantly. Leaders like Pony.ai have achieved per-vehicle operational profitability in some cities, with growing order volumes and user bases. Routine operations have been established in multiple Chinese cities, while these companies are accelerating their expansion into overseas markets such as the Middle East, Europe, and Southeast Asia, marking a new phase of global expansion.
Robotruck: Closed-scenario applications are the first to validate the business logic, with the platooning model emerging as the optimal solution for open-road scenarios. Closed mining areas, due to their controllable conditions, fixed routes, and rigid demand, have been the first to run a complete commercial cycle for autonomous heavy trucks. As a leading listed company in unmanned mining trucks, CiDi has achieved rapid performance growth and expanding delivery scale, validating the cost reduction, efficiency improvement, and safety value of autonomous heavy trucks. This provides a mature commercial template for the entire Robotruck industry. For open-road goods transport scenarios, constrained by complex road conditions and regulatory restrictions, the industry is adopting the "1+N" platooning model as its core deployment model. This approach balances technical feasibility, economic viability, and regulatory compliance. At the capital market level, listed pure-play Robotruck companies are scarce. Pony.ai, with its steadily growing performance and expanding compliance rights, is leading the commercialization of open-road goods transport, leveraging its technological and licensing advantages. The industry is gradually moving from scenario-based pilots to networked and large-scale operations.
Robovan: The logic of replacing last-mile delivery is clear, driven by policy and cost reductions, reaching an inflection point for deployment of hundreds of thousands of units. Against the macro-policy backdrop of reducing logistics costs and improving efficiency in China, unmanned delivery vehicles have been included in the core construction of digital and intelligent supply chains. Multi-level policies are continuously improving the rules for traffic access and operation, safeguarding the industry's large-scale commercialization. Compared to traditional manual urban delivery, Robovan can achieve nearly 80% cost optimization, demonstrating strong commercial viability. Currently, the industry's supply chain is highly mature, with upstream hardware costs declining through localization, midstream vehicle models and solutions iterating, and downstream logistics demand continuously being released. This creates a positive industrial cycle. Leading express delivery companies like SF Express, ZTO Express, and Shentong Express are accelerating their deployment through capital ties, tiered procurement, and scenario-specific customization. This is driving Robovan from pilot programs in parks and warehouse-to-dock operations to continuous penetration into last-mile delivery on semi-open urban roads, offering vast long-term market growth potential.
Risk Warning: Policy and regulatory risks, uncertainties in technology implementation, slower-than-expected development and promotion of new technologies, slower-than-expected downstream demand, and slower-than-expected progress in commercial operation.
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