U.S. stock markets opened lower on Friday, with the Nasdaq 100 index dropping 0.8% and declining 10% from its peak in October last year, signaling a potential technical correction. Major technology stocks experienced widespread declines. Tesla (TSLA.US) fell over 2%, while Microsoft (MSFT.US), Meta (META.US), Google's Class A shares (GOOGL.US), and Amazon (AMZN.US) each dropped nearly 2%. Nvidia (NVDA.US) declined close to 1%.
Market sentiment was influenced by concerns that prolonged military conflicts involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran pose additional downside risks to the U.S. economy. Several institutions have recently raised their projections for a U.S. recession. According to a report dated the 25th, Moody's Analytics' model indicates that the probability of the U.S. economy entering a recession within the next 12 months has increased to 48.6%. Goldman Sachs raised its recession probability forecast to 30%, while Wilmington Trust and EY-Parthenon estimated the likelihood at 45% and 40%, respectively. Under normal circumstances, this probability tends to hover around 20%.
Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody's Analytics, expressed concern that recession risks are "uncomfortably high and continue to rise," emphasizing that an economic downturn has become a real threat. He warned that if current high oil prices persist through late May and into the end of the second quarter, the U.S. economy could slide into a recession.
Comments