Yen Defies Record Currency Market Intervention as Investors Anticipate Bank of Japan Rate Hike

Deep News12:04

Following the yen's disregard for historic support actions, traders face heightened intervention risks over the next two weeks.

Despite Japan deploying a record amount of capital to intervene in the currency market, the yen's performance in May still ranked last among the G10 currencies. This raises the risk of the yen falling toward 160 per dollar before potential support from a possible Bank of Japan interest rate hike on June 16.

Masahiko Loo, a senior fixed-income strategist at State Street Global Advisors, stated, "Intervention is just buying time, not reversing the trend—the real turning point must come from the Bank of Japan."

Investors are focusing on the Bank of Japan's policy decision on June 16. Overnight index swaps indicate the market currently prices in approximately a 78% probability of a rate hike at that time.

Marito Ueda, Managing Director at SBI FX Trade, said, "It is entirely possible for the yen to break through the 160 per dollar level, at which point the Ministry of Finance will have to intervene again." He added that if the Bank of Japan accompanies this with a rate hike or signals a more hawkish stance, it would help enhance the effectiveness of the Ministry of Finance's intervention.

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