The global food supply is facing a severe test from the convergence of multiple crises. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz due to Middle Eastern conflicts has severely impacted fertilizer supply chains. Compounding this are surging diesel prices, historic droughts, and the approach of a "super El Niño," placing global agricultural production under unprecedented fourfold pressure.
The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations issued a public warning this week that without urgent government action, a severe global food crisis could erupt within 6 to 12 months. Alexander De Croo, Administrator of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), was more direct—due to a sharp drop in fertilizer production, "many parts of the world will face food shortages in September or October this year."
This warning is being corroborated by a series of data. U.S. winter wheat production this year is projected to fall 21% compared to 2025, hitting the lowest level since 1972. Simultaneously, U.S. spring wheat planting acreage is expected to reach a record low since records began in 1919. On a global scale, even before the outbreak of the Iran conflict, the number of people suffering from severe hunger was already at a historic peak.
**Hormuz Blockade Severs Fertilizer Lifeline**
Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is the core trigger for this round of the food crisis.
The FAO warns that the strait blockade could trigger a severe global food price crisis within 6 to 12 months. Government decisions regarding fertilizer use, imports, financing, and crop choices will directly determine whether food prices surge sharply later this year or in early 2027.
Due to the blockade, millions of farmers in the Northern Hemisphere failed to obtain necessary fertilizers during the spring planting season. Even when available, prohibitively high prices deterred most farmers. A recent survey indicates that 70% of U.S. farmers could not afford to purchase all the fertilizer needed for spring planting due to excessive costs.
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, recently claimed the U.S. is seeking to "launch new military operations" and stated Iran remains highly vigilant regarding U.S. military intentions. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) also publicly warned that if Iran is attacked again, it will retaliate in "places you cannot imagine" and cautioned that conflict could spread beyond the Middle East. This suggests the possibility of reopening the Strait of Hormuz in the short term is extremely slim, and the fertilizer supply crisis may persist.
**Soaring Diesel Prices Compound Agricultural Costs**
Beyond fertilizer shortages, a sharp rise in diesel prices is further squeezing farmers' production margins.
Nearly all agricultural machinery runs on diesel. Currently, the U.S. national average diesel price is approximately $5.5 per gallon. The situation is particularly severe in the major agricultural state of California—according to AAA data, the state's average diesel price has reached about $7.43 per gallon, up $2.36 from a year ago. In the agricultural hub of Fresno, diesel prices are as high as $7.48 per gallon.
California's agricultural role is pivotal—the state leads the U.S. by a significant margin in both fruit and vegetable production. The sharp increase in diesel costs directly raises production expenses for agricultural products in California and across the nation, which will ultimately be passed on to consumer prices.
**Historic Drought Devastates U.S. Breadbasket**
Simultaneously, extreme drought is causing severe damage in core U.S. agricultural regions.
The first three months of this year were the driest such period on record in the U.S. In West Texas, persistent drought has caused ground cracks wide enough to swallow an entire hand. Local farmer Scott Irlbeck described that wheat planted last fall has almost completely failed due to a lack of rain. He now hopes his insurance will declare it a total loss to avoid the high fuel costs of harvesting.
U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) data shows that this year's winter wheat production is projected at 1.56 billion bushels, down 21% from 2025 and the lowest since 1972. The harvested area for winter wheat this year is only 22 million acres, while the planted area was 32.4 million acres, resulting in an abandonment rate exceeding 32%—meaning nearly one-third of the winter wheat crop was abandoned by farmers before harvest.
Looking ahead, U.S. farmers' spring wheat planting acreage this year is expected to hit a record low since records began in 1919. Notably, the U.S. population in 1919 was only 104 million, whereas today it exceeds 340 million, accelerating the gap between food demand and supply.
**"Super El Niño" Could Be the Final Blow to Food Systems**
Beyond these multiple pressures, a larger climate variable is approaching—a "super El Niño."
The El Niño phenomenon, triggered by abnormally high sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, leads to significant changes in climate patterns worldwide. The U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) has already issued warnings. Paul Roundy, a professor of Atmospheric Science at the University at Albany, stated the probability of this "super El Niño" becoming the strongest El Niño event on record is about 50%, noting, "My estimate a few weeks ago was only around 20%."
Historical precedent is alarming. The "super El Niño" of 1877-1878 triggered widespread global famine, resulting in over 50 million deaths. The FAO points out that this upcoming "super El Niño" could have even more severe consequences, further intensifying pressure on a global food production system already made vulnerable by fertilizer shortages and drought.
The impact of the food crisis is not confined to predictions; some regions are already in dire straits. UN data shows that even before the outbreak of the Middle Eastern conflict, the global population suffering from severe hunger was at a historic high. As the effects of the fertilizer shortage fully manifest during the autumn harvest season, the global food supply gap will widen further, and food security conditions could deteriorate sharply in the coming months.
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